World Projections from University of Washington Study: 6-8-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020.  Projections were supplied by IHME on 6-8--2020,

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Spain and Italy had major decreases in projected deaths per million.  Spain was 772 per million (5-27-2020)  to 575 (6-8-2020)  Italy 717  (5-27-2020) to 584  6-8-2020) . This has caused much tighter death numbers for much of the West.

In descending order the listed countries are:  Sweden 932, United Kingdom 652, Italy 583, Spain 575, France 530, United States 440, Ireland 350, Germany 114, Denmark 113, Finland 74, Norway 44, Greece 19.

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United States of America—population 331 million (2020)

peak:  1,983 on 4-11-2020

Total Death Projected   (145,728  6-8-2020) (131,967  5-27-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020)  (147,040 5-12-2020)  (137,184  5-10-2020)  (134,475 5-4-2020)   (72,860 4-28-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020)   (68,841 4-10-2020)  (61,545 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 440.27

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UNITED KINGDOM—.population 66.65 million  (2019)

peak:  ( 1,285 on  4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020

Total Death Projected (43,462  6-8-2020) (44,389  5-27-2020)  (43,479  5-18-2020) (43,479 5-12-2020)  (40,555  5-10-2020) (40,555 5-4-2020)  (31,476 4-28-2020)  (33,142  4-21-2020)  (37,521 4-15-2020)   (23,791 4-13-2020)  (37,494 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 652.09

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SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)

Peak:    (204 on 5-19-2020)  (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020

Total Death Projected (8534  6-8-2020)  (5258  5-27-2020) (5,760  5-18-2020) (5,760  5-12-2020) (10,196 5-10-2020)  (10,196 5-4-2020)  (15,625  4-28-2020)   (9191 4-21-2020) (15,890 4-15-2020)  (18,322  4-13-2020)  (13,259 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  931.96

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SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)

Peak;  950 on 4-1-2020

Total  Deaths Projected: (27,006 6-8-2020) (36,235  5-27-2020) (29,581 5-18-2020) (29,581 5-12-2020)  (27,727 5-10-2020) (27,727 5-4-2020) (25,329  4-28-2020) (24,624 4-21-2020)   (23,680 4-15-2020)  (18,713  4-13-2020)   (18,363  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  575.33

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NORWAY—population 5.368 million  (2019)

peak:  19 on 5-4-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (234  6-8-2020) (243  5-27-2020) (225  5-18-2020) (225 5-12-2020)  (284 5-10-2020)  (284 5-4-2020)  (336 4-21-2020)   ( 280  4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  43.59

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ITALY—population 60.36  million (2019)

peak:  969 3-27-2020

Total Deaths Projected (35,239  6-8-2020) (43,297  5-27-2020)  (35,137  5-18-2020) (35,137  5-12-20200 (31,459  5-10-2020)  (31,458 5-4-2020) (27,544  4-29-2020)  (26,600  4-21-2020) (26,007  4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  583.81

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IRELAND—population 4.94 million  (2020)

peak:  36 on 4-7-2020

Total Deaths (1727  6-8-2020) (1692  5-27-2020) (1,736 5-18-2020) (1,736 5-12-2020)  (1,698 5-10-2020)  (1,698 5-4-2020)  (1,404  4-28-2020) (987  4-21-2020)  (890 4-17-2020)  (527  4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 349.60

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GREECE—population 10.72  (2019)

peak  11 on 4-23-2020

Total Deaths Projected (206  6-8-2020)  (191 5-27-2020) (164  5-18-2020)   (164 5-18-2020)  (164  5-12-2020) (152 5-10-2020)(152 5-4-2020)   (140  4-28-2020)  (123 4-21-2020)  (119  4-17-2020)  (374  4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  19.22

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GERMANY—population 83.02 million  (2019)

peak:  247 on 4-12-2020

Total Deaths Projected (9500  6-8-2020)  (9146  5-27-2020) (9,905  5-18-2020)  (9,905  5-18-2020)  (9,905  5-12-2020) (8,543 5-10-2020)  (8,543  5-4-2020)  (6,946   4-28-2020)   (5913  4-21-2020)  (4,957  4-17-2020)  (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:   114.43

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FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)

peak:  920 on 4-6-202

Total Projected Deaths: (34,602  6-8-2020) (31,466  5-27-2020)  (31,155  5-18-2020) (31,155  5-12-2020)  (28,859  5-10-2020) (28,859 5-4-2020)  (24,918  4-28-2020)  (23,104  4-21-2020)  (22,555  4-17-2020 )(17,448  4-13-2020)  (15,741  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  530.14

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FINLAND—population 5.52  (2019)

peak 8 on 4-13-2020

Total Projected Deaths  (434  6-8-2020) (317  5-27-2020)  (410  5-18-2020)  (410 5-12-2020)  (299 5-10-2020)  (299 5-4-2020)  (433  4-28-2020)  (167  4-21-2020)   (118 4-17-2020)

Deaths per million:  78.62

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DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)

peak 45 on 5-4-2020

Total Projected deaths   (653 6-8-2020) (624  5-27-2020) (728  5-18-2020) (728  5-12-2020)  (806  5-10-2020) (806 5-4-2020)  (559 4-28-2020)  (772  4-21-2020) (683  4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 113.17

June 9: 797 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

COVID-19

Positive (Confirmed)

129,212  +797

Deaths

6018 +94

Total Tests

1,079,182   +20,309

Total Cases

(129,212  6-9-2020) (128,415  6-8-2020) (127,757  6-7-2020) (126,890  6-6-2020) (125,915  6-5-2020) (124,759  6-4-2020) (123,830  6-3-2020) (122,848  6-2-2020) (121,234  6-1-2020) (120,260  5-31-2020) (118,917  5-30-3030) (117,455  5-29-2020) 115,833  5-28-2020) (114,306  5-27-2020) (113,195  5-26-2020)(112,017  2-25-2020) (110,304  5-24-2020) (107,796  5-23-2020) (105,444  5-22-2020) (102,686 5-21-2020) 100,418  5-20-2020) (98,030  5-19-2020) (96,485  5-18-2020)  (94,191  5-17-2020)  (92,457  5-16-2020) (90,369 5-15-2020) (87,937  5-14-2020) (84,698  5-13-2020) (83,021  5-12-2020)(79,007  5-11-2020) (77,741 5-10-2020)  (76,085  5-9-2020)(73,760  5-8-2020)(70,873 5-7-2020)(68,232  5-6-2020) (65,962  5-5-2020)  (63,840  5-4-2020) (61,499 5-3-2020) (58,505  5-2-2020)  56,055 5-1-2020) (52,918  4-30-2020) (50,355  4-29-3030) (48,102 4-28-2020) (45,883  4-27-2020) (43,903  4-26-2020) ( 41,777  4-25-2020) (39,658  4-24-2020)  (36,934 ^4-23-2020)  (35,108 4-22-2020)(33,059  4-21-2020) (31,508  4-20-2020) (30,357 4-19-2020)  (29,160  4-18-2020)  (27,575  4-17-2020) (25,733  4-16-2020)  (24,593 4-15-2020)  (23,247 4-14-2020)  (22,025 4-13-2020)  (20,852 4-12-2020) (19,180 4-11-2020 ) (17,887 4-10-2020) (16,422 4-9-2020) (15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)

Deaths

(6018  6-9-2020) (5924  6-8-2020) (5904  6-7-2020) (5864  6-6-2020) (5795  6-5-2020) (5739  6-4-2020) (5621  6-3-2020) (5525  6-2-2020) (5412  6-1-2020)   ((5390  5-31-2020)  (5330  5-30-2020) (5270  5-29-2020)  (5186  5-28-2020) (5083  5-27-2020) (4923  5-26-2020) (4884  5-25-2020) (4856  5-24-2020) (4790 5-23-2020) (4713  5-22-2020) (4607  5-21-2020) (4525 5-20-2020)(4,379 5-19-2020) (4,234  5-18-2020) (4,177  5-17-2020) (4129 5-16-2020) (4,058  5-15-2020) (3,928  5-14-2020) (3,792 5-13-2020) (3,601 5-12-2020)  (3,459  5-11-2020) (3,406 5-10-2020) (3349 5-9-2020) (3,241 5-8-2020) (3,111  5-7-2020)(2,974  5-6-2020) ((2,838 5-5-2020)  (2662 5-4-2020) (2,618 5-3-2020) (2,559 5-2-2020) (2,457 5-1-2020) (2,355  4-30-2020) (2,215  4-29-2020)  (2,125  4-28-2020) (1,983  4-27-2020) (1,933 4-26-2020 )(1,874  4-25-2020) 1,795  4-22-2020) (1,688  2-23-2020) (1,585 4-22-2020) (1,468  4-21-2020) (1,349 4-20-2020)(1,290 4-18-2020)  (1,259  4-18-2020) (1,134  4-17-2020) (1,072  4-16-2020) (948 4-15-2020)  (866 4-14-2020) (794 4-13-2020)  (720 4-12-2020) (677 4-11-2020)(596 4-10-2020) (528 4-9-2020) (462 4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

(1,079,182  6-9-2020) (1,058,873  6-8-2020)  (1,042,774  6-72020) (1,022,074  6-6-2020) (1,000,919  6-5-2020) (982,016  6-4-2020)  (959,175  6-3-2020) (934,704  6-2-2020)  (918,273  6-1-20200 (898,259  5-31-2020) (877,105  5-30-2020)  (851,762  5-29-2020) (829,966  5-28-2020) (803,973  5-27-2020) (786,794  5-26-2020) (769,564  5-25-2020) (747,921  5-22-2020) (722,247  5-23-2020) (697,133  5-22-2020) (672,020 5-21-2020) (642,713 5-20-2020)(621,684  5-19-2020) (603,241 5-18-2020) (581,944  5-17-2020) (561,649  5-16-2020) (538,602 5-15-2020) (512,037  5-14-2020)  (489,359  5-13-2020)(471,691 5-12-2020) (442,425  5-11-2020) (429,984  5-10-2020) (416,331 5-9-2020)  (399,714 5-8-2020)  (379,033 5-7-2020)(361,260 5-6-2020) (346,286 5-5-20200 (333,147  5-4-2020) (319,313  5-3-2020) (299,892 5-2-2020)  (284,688  5-1-2020) (269,867 4-30-2020) (256,667  4-29-2020) (242,189  4-28-2020) (227,628  4-27-2020) (214,952 4-26-2020) (201,617 4-25-2020) (186,219  4-24-2020)(173,316 4-23-2020) (164,346 4-22-2020)  (154,997  4-21-2020) (148,358 4-20-2020) (143,318 4-19-2020)  (137,404  4-18-2020) (130,163  4-17-2020)  (122,589  4-16-2020)  (116,929 4-15-2020) (110,616 4-14-2020)  (105,768 4-13-2020) (100,735 4-12-2020) (92,779 4-11-2020) (87,527 4-10-2020) (86,857 4-9-2020) (75,066 4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

_{*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.}

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

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PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week.

As 0f 2-20-2020  range of projected deaths was 5,542 to 14,095 with mean projection of 8781.

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois (7381 6-8-2020) (6371 5-29-2020) (7628 5-26-2020) (8,781 5-18-2020) (7,830 5-12-2020) (7395 5-10-2020)(6,353 5-4-2020)  (2,337  4-29-2020)   (2,316 4-27-2020)  (2093 4-21-2020) (2,259 4-15-2020) (1248 4-13-2020)

(777 4-10-2020)  (1,584  4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (95 deaths on 4-19-2020)               Previously (91 deaths on 4-12-2020)  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

Illinois Population:  12.74 million        Projected deaths per million: 598.75

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html and http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/05/why-imhs-corvid-19-model-is-so-wrong.html

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BOONE COUNTY         

This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

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McHenry County Cases

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McHenry County

COVID-19 Dashboard

This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

The data provided on this dashboard is updated daily between 4:00pm and 6:00pm. The data is provisional and subject to change upon completion of the investigation for each locally reported case to the McHenry County Department of Health (MCDH), MCDH reports investigation data to the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) through the Illinois-National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (I-NEDSS) on a continual basis. Based on when IDPH accesses the information, the reports issued at the State level may be different from what is being reported at the local level.

McHenry County Cases

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1,761

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

McHenry County Deaths

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84

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

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Above is from:  https://mchenry-county-coronavirus-response-mchenrycountygis.hub.arcgis.com/

WINNEBAGO COUNTY (WREX) — There are now 32 new coronavirus cases in Winnebago County, according to Administrator Dr. Sandra Martell.

This comes one day after Winnebago County reported 34 new cases. The county is now up to 2,594 confirmed cases of the virus.

County health officials said its death toll sits at 76 as no new deaths were reported on Monday.

The county has had 22,887 negative tests. Officials said the recovery rate in Winnebago County stands at 86.3%.

Below is list of areas of concern the Winnebago County Health Department is reporting.

• 

Devin Brooks

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Cases in U.S.

Updated  June 9, 2020

U.S. At A Glance

As of June 8, 2020

Total Cases

1,956,421   +17,598

Total Deaths

110,925   +550

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

• Total cases  (1,956,421  6-9-2020)  (1,938,823  6-8-2020) (1,920,904  6-7-2020) (1,891,690  6-6-2020) (1,862,656  6-5-2020) (1,827,425  6-3-2020) (1,802,470  6-2-2020) (1,787,680  6-1-2020) (1,761,530  5-30-2020) (1,719,827  5-29-2020) (1,678,843  5-27-2020)  (1,662,414  5-26-2020) (1,637,456 5-25-2020)  (1,622,114  5-24-2020)(1,595,858 5-23-2020) (1,571,617  5-22-2020)(1,551,095 5-21-2020) (1,528,235 5-20-2020)(1,504 030  5-19-2020) (1.480,349   5-18-2020),(1,467,065  5-17-2020) (1,435,098 5-16-2020)  (1,412,121  5-15-2020) (1,384,930  5-14-2020) (1,364,061 5-13-2020) (1,342,594  5-12-2020) (1,324,488  5-11-20200  (1,300,696  5-10-2020) (1,274,036  5-9-2020) (1,248,040 5-8-2020) (1,219,066  5-7-2020)(1,193,)  (1,005,147  4-28-2020) (957,875  4-27-2020) (928,619  4-26-2020)  (895,766  4-25-2020)   (865,585 4-24-2020)   (829,441   4-23-2020) (802,583  4-22-2020) (776,093 4-21-2020) (746,625 4-20-2020) (720,630 4-19-2020)  (661,712 4-17-2020)  (632,548 4-16-2020)  (605,390 4-15-2020) (579,005 4-14-2020)  (554,849 4-13-2020) (525,704 4-12-2020)  (492,416 4-11-2020)(459,165 4-10-2020) (427,460 4-9-2020) (395,011 4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
• Total deaths(110,925  6-9-2020) (110,375  6-8-2020)  (109,901 6-7—2020)  (109,192  6-6-2020) (108,064  6-5-2020) (106,202  6-3-2020)  (105,157  6-2-2(2020) (104,396  6-1-2020)  (103,700 5-30-2020) (101,711  5-29-2020) (99,031  5-27-2020)  (98,261  5-26-2020)(97,669  5-25-2020)  (97,049  2-24-2020) (96,002 5-23-2020) (94,150 5-22-2020) (93,061  5-21-2020) (91,664 5-20-2020) (90,340 5-19-2020)  (89,407  5-18-2020) (88,709  5-17-2020)  (87,315  5-16-2020)  (85,990  5-20-2020) (83,947 5-15-2020) (82,246  5-13-2020)  (80,820  5-12-2020) (79,756  5-11-2020) (78,771  5-10-2020) (77,034  5-9-2020) (75,477  5-8-2020) (73,297  5-7-2020) (70,802 5-6-2020)  (68,279 5-5-2020) (67,456  5-4-2020)  (64,283  5-2-2020)  (62,405 5-1-2020)  (60,057  4-30-2020) (57,505  4-28-2020)  (53,922 4-27-2020) (52,459  4-26-2020)  (50,439 4-25-2020) (48,816  4-24-2020) (46,379 4-23-2020) (44,575 4-22-2020)  (41,759 4-21-2020) (39,083 4-20-2020)  (37,202 4-19-2020)  (33,049 4-17-2020)  (31,071 4-16-2020) (24,582 4-15-2020) (22,252 4-14-2020) (21,942 4-13-2020)  (20,486 4-12-2020)  (18,559 4-11-2020) (16,570 4-10-2020) (14,696 4-9-2020) (12,754 4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020)(145,728  6-8-2020)  (135,109 5-29-2020)  (131,967  5-26-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020)  (147,040 5-12-2020)  (137,184 5-10-2020) (134,475 5-4-2020)  (72,433   4-29-2020)  (74,073 4-27-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020)  (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020)  (61,543 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily    (2150 4-13-2020)

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,212 on 4-12-2010)  (1,983 on 4-11-2020)  (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2 020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

US Population:  331 million    Projected deaths per million: 398.69

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week

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COVID-19 Tracker   Great site to find specific county, state, country numbers is at:  https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk  Site supplies case numbers, recovered cases and deaths by country and US state.

WORLD

Total confirmed cases

Updated 8 min ago

7,085,894

Active cases

3,500,247

+52,607

Recovered cases

3,180,479

+50,178

Fatal cases

405,168

+3,320