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Presidential hopefuls from both parties have been saying throughout the primary campaign that the American middle class is in trouble. Bernie Sanders says it is in the midst of “a 40-year decline.” Jeb Bush says it is “shrinking.” Ted Cruz says it is “headed in the wrong direction.” And Hillary Clinton says the “basic bargain” that hard work could move families into the middle class “has eroded.”
A new report from the Pew Research Center says the candidates may be right. For the first time since at least the 1960s, the majority of Americans aren’t in the middle class. The Pew report looks at middle-income households, which it defines as those earning between two-thirds and double the median household income. In 2014, that meant a three-person household would have to earn between $42,000 and $126,000 to be considered middle-income.1 (Pew prefers the term “middle income” to “middle class” because class implies social standing as well as income.)
In 2015, just under 50 percent of American adults lived in middle-income households. (The chart above rounds the number to 50 percent.) That’s down from 54 percent in 2001 and 61 percent in 1971, the earliest year Pew looked at. Meanwhile, the share of income going to middle-income households has also fallen, from 62 percent in 1971 to 43 percent last year.
So the middle class really is shrinking. But it’s less clear how concerned we should be about that decline.
First of all, it’s important to note that the middle class is shrinking not just because more people are poor but also because more people are rich. The share of Americans that are in high-earning households, those with more than double the median income, has grown by seven percentage points since 1971. The share of low earners, those earning less than two-thirds the median, has grown just four percentage points. In fact, what Pew calls the “hollowing of the American middle class” is even starker than that: Most of the growth has come at the extreme bottom and top of the income spectrum. In other words, the shrinking of the middle class is less about decline than polarization.
Moreover, as I wrote last year, it’s important to remember that typical American household has changed dramatically over the past three decades. The U.S. population has grown older, on average, which makes a big difference to median income because retirees often have little income and live off savings. And it has become more diverse; in particular, the rapid rise in the number of immigrants in the late 20th century pushed down median incomes because immigrants, on average, make less money. Notably, according to Pew, black, white and Asian households have all seen a net increase in their income status since 1971, while Hispanics, who make up a large share of new immigrants, have seen a net decrease. All these trends — an aging workforce, income polarization, immigration and racial disparities — are important issues with major economic and social implications. So is the decade-and-a-half-long stagnation of middle-class incomes. But the full picture is more nuanced than the “death of the middle class” narrative so often heard on the campaign trail.
The invisible frontrunner in GOP race? Try Ted Cruz
Today’s political spotlight – once again – is fixed on Donald Trump, given the three new polls (national NYT/CBS, Fox News of South Carolina, Winthrop of South Carolina) that show him leading the Republican presidential race. But now 53 days out from the first nominating contest, it’s time to consider Ted Cruz another frontrunner in the GOP race at least when it comes to the Iowa caucuses. “Ted Cruz, the no-compromise conservative purist, is on the verge of securing the Christian conservative bloc, a linchpin that could secure victory in the 2016 Iowa caucuses, GOP insiders say,” per the Des Moines Register. “The question is whether Cruz can siphon enough tea party voters from front-runner Donald Trump to vault Cruz into the No. 1 slot when votes are counted less than two months from now, they say.” The Washington Post’s Cillizza adds that Cruz is also set up well for the March 1 contests. “Assuming Cruz is one of those candidates who makes it to March, the calendar starts to look very favorable to him. On March 1 is what’s being referred to as the ‘SEC primary’; Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas will all vote on that first Tuesday in March.” Why Cruz is set up well in Iowa
NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard has more on Cruz and his position in Iowa: “Cruz intends to hit all 99 counties by February 1, the day of the Iowa caucus. He has hit 50 so far. And last weekend in Des Moines, the campaign opened ‘Cruz Camp,’ an old college dorm with 48 beds for volunteers coming in from across the country to stay for free while organizing locally for the campaign. He has now earned what many consider to be the ‘big three’ of conservative endorsements in the state: Radio host Steve Deace, U.S. Rep. Steve King of northwestern Iowa and – as expected to be announced on Thursday – The Family Leader, a socially-conservative, Christian group.” And Hillyard adds that the Iowa campaign events in the last two months are telling: Cruz 41, Rubio 14. 53 days until Iowa and five possibilities
Indeed, it increasingly looks like there are five possibilities about how the Republican race shakes out:
Possibility #1: Trump wins one or both of Iowa and New Hampshire, and runs through all of the establishment GOP efforts to stop him on his way to the Republican nomination.
Possibility #2: Cruz wins Iowa, is set for South Carolina, and racks up wins through the March 1 states - and he emerges as the odds-on favorite to be the GOP nominee.
Possibility #3: Despite whoever wins Iowa or New Hampshire, the establishment/acceptable Republican who comes closest in those two states – Marco Rubio? – is set up to coalesce the Republicans who are against Trump or Cruz in a winnowed race.
Possibility #4: Rubio wins Iowa and is positioned to put away the GOP race early.
Possibility #5: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins New Hampshire, and Rubio (or someone else) stays alive for a three-way grudge match until GOP convention in Cleveland.
Winthrop poll of South Carolina (conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 7): Trump 24%, Cruz 16%, Carson 14%, Rubio 11%, Bush 9%
On the Democratic side, meanwhile, the national NYT/CBS poll has it: Clinton 52%, Sanders 32%, O’Malley 2%
Fox News poll of South Carolina: Clinton 65%, Sanders 21%, O’Malley 3%
Trump says he’s postponing trip to Israel
“A day after being criticized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his comments about Muslims, Donald Trump abruptly announced Thursday that he is “postponing” a planned trip to Israel and rescheduling a meeting with the country’s leader until ‘after I become President of the U.S.’ Trump had previously promised to travel to Israel before the end of the year, and he was slated to meet with Netanyahu on December 28,” one of us writes.
Posted Dec. 9, 2015 at 12:31 PM Updated Dec 9, 2015 at 12:40 PM
BELVIDERE — More bar, restaurant and gaming parlor owners are trying their luck with video gambling machines in Belvidere. And so far, the move is paying dividends.
Video gambling has surged in Belvidere since the first 10 video gaming machines were installed at two local bars in September 2013.
In 2014, Belvidere gamers lost a total of $1,827,154 on local slots. If the popularity of slot parlors and video gambling machines in Belvidere grows at its current rate through December, gamers are on track to lose more than $3,700,000 this year.
As of October, there were 13 establishments in Belvidere operating a total of 60 machines.
More are coming.
An application for a special use permit to operate a slot shop called "Slots of Fortune II" at 101 N. State Street, an old brick building overlooking the Kishwaukee River downtown, was approved in November. Another for a place called Niko's Cabin, planned for the former location of Wicked Brew Coffee & Cafe at 506 S. State St., is being considered.
Gina DelRose, associate planner with the Belvidere-Boone County Planning Department, said as many as 16 establishments in Belvidere could be operating video gambling machines by February 2016.
Mayor Mike Chamberlain said he plans to discuss capping the number of gaming parlors allowed in Belvidere at 20 during a City Council meeting in January.
"There are social consequences of gaming," Chamberlain said. "It’s a double-edged sword."
"Every valuable retail space that is open downtown is a gaming parlor," he added. "And while the revenue is nice, it’s nothing like the sales tax that would come from a nice restaurant."
From Jan. 1 through Oct. 31, the city generated nearly $140,000 through video gambling tax revenue. Since the first slots began operating in Sept. 2013, the city has made nearly $240,000.
In 2013, the City Council voted 7-3 to lower the cost of a liquor license from $20,000 to $10,000 to attract restaurants and bars downtown. At the time, Chamberlain told the Register Star he was concerned the measure would provide a gateway for store owners looking to install video poker machines.
"I don’t want the downtown to end up being a gaming parlor with gaming machines in every other storefront," he said in 2013.
Though Belvidere has a comparatively low number of gambling machines, on average, its slots are significantly outperforming those in neighboring areas, such as Loves Park, which has a comparable population to Belvidere.
In October of this year, video gamblers wagered an average of $88,514 and lost an average of $7,212.95 on each machine in Belvidere. In Loves Park, gamblers wagered $65,739 and lost $4,916 per machine.
There are 49 establishments in Loves Park operating a total of 235 video gambling machines. In June 2014, Loves Park capped its number of video gambling parlors, sometimes referred to as "casino cafes," at 20. Casino cafes are small parlors that focus on gambling, and offer only minimal food or alcohol sales. The state’s Video Gaming Act allows any business licensed to serve alcohol for consumption on the premises to have up to five slot machines.
"I don’t mind them," said Belvidere Alderman Daniel Arevalo, W-2, of video gambling machines. "They bring some revenue and some people will always want to go gamble ... now they don’t have to travel as far and the money stays here."
As it stands, Belvidere has no cap on the number of video gambling parlors that can operate in the city. If a business has a liquor license, they are eligible to apply for a special use permit to operate video gambling machines.
