Sunday, November 1, 2020

November 1: 6980 New COVID Cases in Illinois

Public Health Officials Announce 6,980 New Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus Disease

1st Nov, 2020

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 417,280 cases, including 9,792 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.  Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 78,458 specimens for a total 7,808,303.  As of last night, 3,294 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19.  Of those, 692 patients were in the ICU and 284 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.

The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 25 – October 31 is 8.0%.  This is the number that IDPH has been consistently reporting in its daily releases and is calculated using total cases over total tests.  Similar to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH has been using test positivity for regional mitigation metrics on its website since mid-July.  Test positivity is calculated using the number of COVID-19 positive tests over total tests.  On October 29, 2020, IDPH began reporting the statewide test positivity in its daily releases. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from October 25, 2020 – October 31, 2020 is 9.4%.

Case positivity and test positivity rate are both relevant and offer insight into the bigger COVID-19 picture.  Case positivity helps us understand whether changes in the number of confirmed cases is due to more testing or due to more infections.  Whereas, test positivity accounts for repeated testing and helps us understand how the virus is spreading in the population over time.

*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered.  For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.

Economic study shows thousands new COVID 19 caused by Trump Rallies



The Effects of Large Group Meetings on the Spread of COVID-19:

The Case of Trump Rallies

B. Douglas Bernheim

Nina Buchmann

Zach Freitas-Groff

Sebasti´an Otero*

October 30, 2020

Abstract :We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).


…..

Table 1: List of rallies included in the analysis City Date Indoors (yes or no)

Tulsa 6/20/2020 Yes

Henderson 9/13/2020 Yes

Phoenix 6/23/2020 Yes

Mosinee 9/17/2020 No

Mankato 8/17/2020 No

Bemidji 9/18/2020 No

Oshkosh 8/17/2020

No Fayetteville 9/19/2020 No

Yuma 8/18/2020 No

Swanton 9/21/2020 No

Old Forge 8/20/2020 No

Vandalia 9/21/2020 No

Londonberry 8/28/2020 No

Pittsburgh 9/22/2020 No

Latrobe 9/3/2020 No

Jacksonville 9/24/2020 No

Winston-Salem 9/8/2020 No

Newport News 9/25/2020 No

Freeland 9/10/2020 No

Middletown 9/26/2020 No

Minden 9/12/2020 No


To download the complete study go to:  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3722299