Monday, April 13, 2020

World Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-13-2020


Projections from University of Washington Study

Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020.  Projections were supplied by IHME on 4-13-2020,

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
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US (208 deaths per million) is fifth lowest of the ten Western countries shown below.   Greece (35 per million),Germany (88 deaths per million) and Ireland (106 per million) are considerably lower. Norway (151) is also lower than USA.  Sweden (1,791) is extremely high.

United States of America—population 331 million (2020)

peak:  1,983 on 4-11-2020

Total Death Projected: (68,841 4-10-2020)  (61,545 4-10-2020)  Deaths per million: 207.98

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UNITED KINGDOM—population 66.65 million  (2019)

peak:  1,156 on 4-13-2020

Total Death Projected  (23,791 4-13-2020)  (37,494 4-10-2020)   Deaths per million: 356.95

SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)

Peak:  560 on 5-8-2020

Total Death Projected  (18,322  4-13-2020)  (13,259 4-10-2020)   Deaths per million:  1,791.01

SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)

Peak;  950 on 4-1-2020

Total  Deaths Projected: (18,713  4-13-2020)   (18,363  4-10-2020)  Deaths per million:  398.66

NORWAY—population 5.368 million  (2019)

peak:  19 on 5-4-2020

Total Deaths Projected:  811 Deaths per million:  151.08

ITALY—population 60.36 million (2019)

peak:  969 3-27-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020) Deaths per million:  350.07

IRELAND—population 4.94 million  (2020)

peak:  36 on 4-7-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (527  4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)  Deaths per million: 106.68

GREECE—population 10,72  (2019)

peak  11 on 4-23-2020

Total Deaths Projected  (374  4-13-2020)  Deaths per million:  34.89

GERMANY—population 83.02 million  (2019)

peak:  247 on 4-12-2020

Total Deaths Projected:   (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020) Deaths per million:  88.32

FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)

peak:  920 on 4-6-2020

Total Projected Deaths:  (17,448  4-13-2020)  (15,741  4-10-2020) Deaths per million:  267.32

DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)

peak 45 on 5-4-2020

Total Projected deaths (1,669 4-13-2020)  Deaths per million:  289.25

State Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-13-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-10-2020
Projections from University of Washington Study
FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
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Major decrease in projections for United States

PROJECTION:

As of April 10, 2020

United States of America: (68,841  4-13-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)  (60,415 4-8-2020)  (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020)  Deaths

>Population 331 Millions  (2020)

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Nearly all of these listed states had major decreases in estimated deaths.

California: (1,483  4-13-2020)(1616 4-10-2020) (1,611 4-8-2020)  (1,783   4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)

>39.56 millions (2018)

Florida:  (4,748  4-13-2020)  (3999 4-10-2020) (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)

>Population  21.3 million (2018)

Illinois:  (1,248  4-13-2020) (777 4-10-2020) (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386  4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

Illinois returns to a higher projection.

>12.74 million (2018)

Louisiana: (1,141  4-13-2020)  (1,125  4-10-2020) (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020

>4.6 million (2018)

Massachusetts  (8,219  4-13-2020) (6,739  4-10-2020) (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths

>6.9 million (2018)

Michigan  (2,373 4-13-2020) (1,977   4-10-2020) (2,103 4-8-2020) 2,963 deaths

>9.996 million (2018)

Minnesota: (656  4-13-2020) 456 deaths 4-8-2020

>5.6 million  (2018)

Missouri:  (1,712 4-13-2020)  (1,161   4-10-2020)

>6,126 million

New York   (14,542  4-13-2020)  (13,442  4-10-2020)  13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

>19.54 million (2018)

Ohio:  (482 4-13-2020) (489  4-10-2020)  (489 4-8-2020) 544

>11.69 million (2018)

Pennsylvania  (2,005  4-13-2020)

>12.8 million  (2019)

Texas:   (2,704  4-13-2020)  (2,350 4-10-2020)  (2,042 4-8-2020)  (2,025 4-5-2020)

>28,7 million (2018)

Washington: (855 4-13-2020)  (842 4-10-2020)  (700 4-8-2020) (632  4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

>7.536 million (2018)

Wisconsin: (339  4-13-2020)  (357 4-10-2020)  (424 4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

>5.814 Million (2018)

Liberal challenger wins Wisconsin court election over Trump pick

Liberal challenger wins Wisconsin court election over Trump pick

“It’s a victory for justice and democracy in an election that should never have taken place in person,” the state’s Democratic Party chair said.

Wisconsin voter

A Wisconsin voter casts her ballot in the state's primary election on April 7. | Dan Reiland/The Eau Claire Leader-Telegram via AP

By ZACH MONTELLARO

04/13/2020 06:34 PM EDT

Updated: 04/13/2020 08:11 PM EDT


  • Liberal Wisconsin state Supreme Court challenger Jill Karofsky defeated conservative Justice Daniel Kelly in the biggest battle of Wisconsin's April 7 elections. But the war over voting in Wisconsin and other states isn't even close to ending.

Karofsky's victory over Kelly, who was backed by state Republicans and President Donald Trump, comes after Democrats threatened lawsuits over the election, which was marred by last minute chaos, including significant numbers of polling places closed due to coronavirus and disagreement between the Democratic governor and the Republican legislature over whether to postpone the vote.

It’s an early preview of the raw, intense legal fights over voting rights and ballot access set to multiply across other states this year, as the two parties prepare to contest a presidential election amid the pandemic.

"It’s a victory for justice and democracy in an election that should never have taken place in person," Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said in a statement following Karofsky's victory.

Earlier in the day, Wikler and other Democrats sounded more pessimistic about the race. “Every legal option is on the table,” Wikler said at a virtual press conference Monday morning, when asked about possible litigation. “We’re in constant touch with attorneys as we gather new information.” At the same press conference, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez called Wisconsin's election "voter suppression on steroids."

Wikler also said at the time he expected lawsuits from individual candidates from across the state, separate from the party. The Democratic presidential primary and the state Supreme Court race — with its potential impact on future redistricting and other state laws — were the highest-profile races on the ballot this month, but hundreds of local government elections were held as well, with what looks set to be much lower turnout than the equivalent contests four years ago.

The victory reduces the state Supreme Court's 5-2 conservative margin to 4-3. Democrats tried and failed to flip a state Supreme Court seat in 2019, with both races pointing to the competitiveness of the state heading into this year's general election.


The statements from Perez and Wikler following the Karofsky's victory did not mention any litigation. "Democrats are working to ensure no voter should have to choose between risking their health and participating in an election," Perez said in his statement.

The coronavirus turned Wisconsin’s April elections inside-out in the days leading up to last Tuesday’s vote. Facing worries about public health, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers called for the election to be postponed on April 3, four days before the election — and after saying in previous weeks that he did not want to move the vote. The Republican-controlled state legislature rejected Evers’ late request, leading Evers to issue an executive order delaying the election, citing his emergency powers.

 


But the state Supreme Court ultimately ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the election after the legislature challenged his order. That meant in-person voting happened as planned, even though some counties were not able to staff anything near their normal number of voting locations. Municipalities across the state had to scramble to run an in-person election, with many closing polling places and National Guardsmen being drafted to serve as poll workers in most of the state’s counties.

In Milwaukee, the biggest city in the state, just five of 180 planned precincts were open on Tuesday, as volunteer poll workers dropped out due to concerns about coronavirus.

The U.S. Supreme Court also ruled that ballots had to be postmarked by Election Day and received by 4 p.m. local time on Monday, adding another complicated wrinkle to the election. In Wisconsin, ballots must typically be returned to clerks by 8 p.m. on Election Day, regardless of when they’re postmarked.

Municipalities had to determine how to interpret the postmark ruling for ballots that didn’t have a postmark or had an unclear one, which could become another possible subject of post-election litigation.

The battles in Wisconsin foreshadow the political and legal fights set to play out across the country before the November general election. Both Democrats and Republicans are standing up significant operations to fight over voting laws in the states.

And Trump, in particular, has taken a hard-line stand against mail voting. He has said, baselessly, that mail balloting will lead to widespread voter fraud.

In the Democratic presidential primary, Joe Biden claimed victory over Bernie Sanders by a wide margin, the Associated Press declared early Tuesday. Sanders dropped out of the race on Wednesday, the day after in-person voting in the state, and endorsed the former vice president on Monday.

Voters who cast their ballots on Tuesday in Milwaukee waited in lines for hours, some in the middle of a hailstorm, with many wearing masks and gloves, for one of the most dangerous elections in modern American history. The election took place while the state was under a stay-at-home order and while the state Supreme Court, which effectively allowed in-person voting to continue, met virtually.

Wisconsin voter lines

Voters who cast their ballots on Tuesday in Milwaukee waited in lines for hours, with many wearing masks and gloves. | Morry Gash/AP Photo

Democrats have homed in on problems with absentee voting as they consider possible legal action. The 2019 spring election saw a record amount of absentee voting in the state. Nearly 1.3 million ballots were requested and about 1.1 million were reported returned as of Monday morning, according to data from the Wisconsin Elections Commission. But some voters who spoke to POLITICO on Election Day said they or someone they knew had requested an absentee ballot but never received one, forcing them to choose between going to the polls and staying inside to avoid risking exposure to coronavirus.

“You’re risking yourself both ways,” Judy Gardner, a Milwaukee-based activist who said her niece requested but never received her absentee ballot, told POLITICO last week. “Either with the health scare or not being able to vote at all.”

Democrats hinted that the issue could be at the center of future litigation.

Dan Feyen, a Republican state senator represented Fond du Lac, also tweeted last week that a postal worker told the state elections commission that three tubs of undelivered absentee ballots were discovered.

“It is impossible to submit an absentee ballot by Election Day when you haven’t even received the damn ballot by Election Day,” Perez said at the Monday press conference with Wikler.

Above is from: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/13/wisconsin-coronavirus-election-results-lawsuits-184666


Trump says he’ll decide on easing guidelines, not governors

Trump says he’ll decide on easing guidelines, not governors

April 13, 202011:44 am Associated PressCORONAVIRUS,TOP STORIES

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WASHINGTON (AP) —President Donald Trump is asserting that he is the ultimate decision-maker for determining how and when to relax the social distancing guidelines put in place because of the coronavirus.
Trump's claim that he could force governors to reopen their states comes after he spent weeks arguing that he didn't believe he should pressure states that hadn't imposed stay-at-home restrictions to do so.
Trump has been bristling at criticism that his plan to restore normalcy will cost lives and extend the outbreak.
On Monday Trump tweeted "it is the decision of the President" when to relax the guidelines.
Trump has been pushing to reopen the country as the economy has plummeted during the virus outbreak.

Above is from:   https://wrex.com/2020/04/13/trump-says-hell-decide-on-easing-guidelines-not-governors/:

April 13: 22,025 COVID-19 cases in Illinois


In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
Positive Cases
(22,025 4-13-2020)  (20,852 4-12-2020) (19,180 4-11-2020 ) (17,887 4-10-2020) (16,422 4-9-2020) (15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)
Deaths
(794  4-13-2020)  (720 4-12-2020) (677 4-11-2020)(596 4-10-2020) (528 4-9-2020) (462 4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
Total Persons Tested*
(105,768  4-13-2020) (100,735 4-12-2020) (92,779 4-11-2020) (87,527 4-10-2020) (86,857 4-9-2020) (75,066 4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week.

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois  (1248  4-13-2020)

(777 4-10-2020)  (1,584  4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (91 deaths on 4-12-2020)               Previously (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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Above is from:https://www.boonecountyil.org/sites/default/files/images/file/04-13-2020%20Daily%20Report.png

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Winnebago County tops 100 coronavirus cases on Easter Sunday with 7 new cases

April 12, 20203:39 pm Andrew CarriganCORONAVIRUS,TOP STORIES

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WINNEBAGO COUNTY (WREX) — The number of coronavirus cases in Winnebago County has officially topped 100 as the county reported 7 new cases on Sunday.
The health department did not release any additional information on the 7 new cases.
The total number of cases in the county sits at 105 as of April 12, with 7 deaths.
Here's a breakdown of the cases by age group:

  • 0-9: 0
  • 10-19: 5
  • 20-29: 16
  • 30-39: 15
  • 40-49: 18
  • 50-59: 20
  • 60-69: 17
  • 70-79: 9
  • 80+: 5

The county is expected to hold a press conference regarding the status of the coronavirus on Monday at 3:30 p.m. You can watch the press conference live on 13 WREX, stream it on our website or watch it via the 13 WREX Facebook page.
Here's a look at the resources the county has available as of Sunday:


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This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

McHenry County

Confirmed  255 cases



Source: McHenry County Department of Health

McHenry County

Deaths 8



Source: McHenry County Department of Health

This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.


Above is from:  https://mchenry-county-coronavirus-response-mchenrycountygis.hub.arcgis.com/

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Cases in U.S.

Updated  April 13, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases (554,849  4-13-2020) (525,704 4-12-2020)  (492,416 4-11-2020)(459,165 4-10-2020) (427,460 4-9-2020) (395,011 4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
  • Total deaths:  (21,942  4-13-2020)  (20,486 4-12-2020)  (18,559 4-11-2020) (16,570 4-10-2020) (14,696 4-9-2020) (12,754 4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html


Now being updated three times per week.

PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020)  (68,841  4-13-2020)  (61,543 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily    (2150  4-13-2020)

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,212 on 4-12-2010)  (1,983 on 4-11-2020)  (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2 020) (2,271 3/30/2020) 

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week