Enough testing is the real question.

Harvard study says only nine states ready to safely reopen

BY JESSIE HELLMANN - 05/07/20 11:49 AM EDT 753

Only nine states are running enough COVID-19 tests to contain their outbreaks and reopen by May 15, according to a Harvard-NPR analysis released Thursday.

Those nine states also would need to be tracing and isolating positive cases and their contacts in order to open safely by May 15, the study said.

The states meeting that criteria are Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. Those states have enough testing to test all infected people and their close contacts who may have been exposed to the virus. Those states are also seeing 10 percent or less of their tests coming back positive, meaning they are likely casting a wide enough net in finding new infections, according to recommendations from the World Health Organization. The more people who are tested for the coronavirus, the lower the positivity rate is expected to be.

But states with much larger populations and bigger COVID-19 outbreaks, including New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts, are running far fewer tests than are needed to lift some physical distancing restrictions by May 15.

While governors in those states are moving more slowly toward reopening, states that are already lifting restrictions, including Georgia, Texas and Colorado, are also far from meeting the minimum testing targets set by Harvard.

“The numbers are sobering: Overall, our need for testing has only increased over the past weeks. Less than a dozen states have gotten ahead of this virus,” reads the analysis by the Harvard Global Health Institute.

Overall, more than half of the U.S. is either reopened or planning to reopen in the coming weeks.

Ashish Jha, director of the institute, told NPR the analysis is based on a model of future case counts by Youyang Gu, whose work is frequently cited by the White House.

Based on that model, the U.S. needs to run more than 900,000 COVID-tests per day, according to the institute, but the U.S. is running an average of 248,000 tests per day, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

States with larger outbreaks need to do more testing.

For example, New Jersey needs to run more than 98,000 tests a day by May 15 to reopen, but is currently running an average of 6,800 tests per day, according to the analysis.

Jha noted that if social distancing requirements are relaxed, testing needs may grow because new cases are likely to increase.

Even if a state has adequate testing, Jha said, it also needs to have enough contact tracing capabilities to spot and isolate new cases before reopening, otherwise new outbreaks could occur.

• 
  
States that have already allowed some businesses to reopen are not doing enough testing, according to the analysis.

For example, Georgia needs to run 26,000 tests per day to reopen by May 15, but is running an average of 8,600 tests per day.

In Texas, the state is running an average of 17,735 tests per day but needs to run 27,282 tests by May 15.

Above is from:  https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/496588-harvard-study-says-only-nine-states-ready-to-safely-reopen

20,000 tests finally

Illinois tests 20,000 people for the coronavirus in a day

May 8, 20202:50 pmAndrew CarriganCORONAVIRUS,ILLINOIS NEWS,TOP STORIES

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CHICAGO (WREX) — Testing for the coronavirus continues to ramp up across Illinois.
For the first time, Illinois has reached 20,000 tests in a day, according to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
Despite the struggles of testing for the virus, the governor says Illinois is among the best when it comes to testing.

"As of May 6, Illinois ranks second among the 10 most populous states in the number of tests completed per capita over the last 7 days, and Illinois is 5th among all 50 states in total tests completed since the beginning of this pandemic," said Gov. Pritzker during his daily press briefing on Friday.

There's now 244 public testing sites across the state, compared to the 112 on April 24. The governor will be announcing new locations next week, including in the Rockford area. The new testing sites will mean there will be 22 testing sites in the Rockford region.

Above is from:  https://wrex.com/2020/05/08/illinois-tests-20000-people-for-the-coronavirus-in-a-day/

May 8: 73,760 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through May 30, 2020.

COVID-19

Positive (Confirmed) 

73,760  +2,887

Deaths

3,241  +130

Total Tests Performed*

399,714  +19,671

Total Cases

(73,760  5-8-2020)(70,873 5-7-2020)(68,232  5-6-2020) (65,962  5-5-2020)  (63,840  5-4-2020) (61,499 5-3-2020) (58,505  5-2-2020)  56,055 5-1-2020) (52,918  4-30-2020) (50,355  4-29-3030) (48,102 4-28-2020) (45,883  4-27-2020) (43,903  4-26-2020) ( 41,777  4-25-2020) (39,658  4-24-2020)  (36,934 ^4-23-2020)  (35,108 4-22-2020)(33,059  4-21-2020) (31,508  4-20-2020) (30,357 4-19-2020)  (29,160  4-18-2020)  (27,575  4-17-2020) (25,733  4-16-2020)  (24,593 4-15-2020)  (23,247 4-14-2020)  (22,025 4-13-2020)  (20,852 4-12-2020) (19,180 4-11-2020 ) (17,887 4-10-2020) (16,422 4-9-2020) (15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)

Deaths

(3,241 5-8-2020) (3,111  5-7-2020)(2,974  5-6-2020) ((2,838 5-5-2020)  (2662 5-4-2020) (2,618 5-3-2020) (2,559 5-2-2020) (2,457 5-1-2020) (2,355  4-30-2020) (2,215  4-29-2020)  (2,125  4-28-2020) (1,983  4-27-2020) (1,933 4-26-2020 )(1,874  4-25-2020) 1,795  4-22-2020) (1,688  2-23-2020) (1,585 4-22-2020) (1,468  4-21-2020) (1,349 4-20-2020)(1,290 4-18-2020)  (1,259  4-18-2020) (1,134  4-17-2020) (1,072  4-16-2020) (948 4-15-2020)  (866 4-14-2020) (794 4-13-2020)  (720 4-12-2020) (677 4-11-2020)(596 4-10-2020) (528 4-9-2020) (462 4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

(399,714 5-8-2020)  (379,033 5-7-2020)(361,260 5-6-2020) (346,286 5-5-20200 (333,147  5-4-2020) (319,313  5-3-2020) (299,892 5-2-2020)  (284,688  5-1-2020) (269,867 4-30-2020) (256,667  4-29-2020) (242,189  4-28-2020) (227,628  4-27-2020) (214,952 4-26-2020) (201,617 4-25-2020) (186,219  4-24-2020)(173,316 4-23-2020) (164,346 4-22-2020)  (154,997  4-21-2020) (148,358 4-20-2020) (143,318 4-19-2020)  (137,404  4-18-2020) (130,163  4-17-2020)  (122,589  4-16-2020)  (116,929 4-15-2020) (110,616 4-14-2020)  (105,768 4-13-2020) (100,735 4-12-2020) (92,779 4-11-2020) (87,527 4-10-2020) (86,857 4-9-2020) (75,066 4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

_{*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.}

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

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PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week.

HUGE INCREASE IN PROJECTED DEATHS    For discussion go to: http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/05/ihme-model-nearly-doubles-death.html

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois (6,353 5-4-2020)  (2,337  4-29-2020)   (2,316 4-27-2020)  (2093 4-21-2020) (2,259 4-15-2020) (1248 4-13-2020)

(777 4-10-2020)  (1,584  4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (95 deaths on 4-19-2020)               Previously (91 deaths on 4-12-2020)  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

Illinois Population:  12.74 million        Projected deaths per million: 498.67

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html and http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/05/why-imhs-corvid-19-model-is-so-wrong.html

BOONE COUNTY

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This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

McHenry County

---

McHenry County Cases

---

918

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

McHenry County Deaths

---

50

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

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---

---

---

---

Above is from:  https://mchenry-county-coronavirus-response-mchenrycountygis.hub.arcgis.com/

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.

Winnebago County COVID-19 cases inch toward 1,000

May 8, 20205:32 pmBreane LygaCORONAVIRUS,TOP STORIES

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WINNEBAGO COUNTY (WREX) — Winnebago County inches closer to 1,000 COVID-19 cases as health officials report 66 new cases Friday.

Cases in Winnebago County sit at 852, according to the Winnebago County Health Department's daily report. The county has no new deaths to report over the past 24 hours. Twenty-six people have died of COVID-19 in the county.

The age group most impacted by COVID-19 continues to be people in the 20-29 age group. Fourteen of the county's 26 deaths are people 80 and over.

The following is a list of the 18 locations of concern in Winnebago County:

• Alden Alma Nelson Manor
• Amberwood Care Centre
• Anam Care
• The Atrium
• East Bank Center
• Forrest City Rehab and Nursing
• Goldie B Floberg Center
• Linconshire Place
• Milestone
• Peterson Meadows
• River Bluff Nursing Home
• Robert Webb Terrace
• Rock River Health Care
• Rockford Rescue Mission
• Rosecrance Griffin Williamson Campus
• St. Anne Ascension Living
• Van Matre
• Winnebago County Jail

Twenty-one people have recovered from COVID-19 in Winnebago County over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of recoveries to 193. As of Friday, 4,900 people have tested negative for COVID-19 and a total of 3,936 tests are pending. Testing has ramped up over the past couple of weeks after the county opened more testing centers at Crusader Community Health.

Above is from:  https://wrex.com/2020/05/08/winnebago-county-covid-19-cases-inch-toward-1000/

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Cases in U.S.

• 
  

Updated  May 8, 2020

U.S. At A Glance

As of May 7, 2020

Total Cases^*

1,248,040  +28,974

Total Deaths

75,477  +2,180

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

• Total cases (1,248,040  5-8-2020) (1,219,066  5-7-2020)(1,193,813  5-6-2020) (1,171,510 5-5-2020)  (1,152,372 5-4-2020 )(1,092,815 5-2-2020)   (1,062,446  5-1-2020)(1,031,659  4-30-2020)  (1,005,147  4-28-2020) (957,875  4-27-2020) (928,619  4-26-2020)  (895,766  4-25-2020)   (865,585 4-24-2020)   (829,441   4-23-2020) (802,583  4-22-2020) (776,093 4-21-2020) (746,625 4-20-2020) (720,630 4-19-2020)  (661,712 4-17-2020)  (632,548 4-16-2020)  (605,390 4-15-2020) (579,005 4-14-2020)  (554,849 4-13-2020) (525,704 4-12-2020)  (492,416 4-11-2020)(459,165 4-10-2020) (427,460 4-9-2020) (395,011 4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
• Total deaths  (75,477  5-8-2020) (73,297  5-7-2020) (70,802 5-6-2020)  (68,279 5-5-2020) (67,456  5-4-2020)  (64,283  5-2-2020)  (62,405 5-1-2020)  (60,057  4-30-2020) (57,505  4-28-2020)  (53,922 4-27-2020) (52,459  4-26-2020)  (50,439 4-25-2020) (48,816  4-24-2020) (46,379 4-23-2020) (44,575 4-22-2020)  (41,759 4-21-2020) (39,083 4-20-2020)  (37,202 4-19-2020)  (33,049 4-17-2020)  (31,071 4-16-2020) (24,582 4-15-2020) (22,252 4-14-2020) (21,942 4-13-2020)  (20,486 4-12-2020)  (18,559 4-11-2020) (16,570 4-10-2020) (14,696 4-9-2020) (12,754 4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Now being updated three times per week.

HUGE INCREASE IN PROJECTED DEATHS    For discussion go to: http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/05/ihme-model-nearly-doubles-death.html

PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020) (134,475 5-4-2020)  (72,433   4-29-2020)  (74,073 4-27-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020)  (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020)  (61,543 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily    (2150 4-13-2020)

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,212 on 4-12-2010)  (1,983 on 4-11-2020)  (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2 020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

US Population:  331 million    Projected deaths per million: 406.27

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week

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COVID-19 Tracker   Great site to find specific county, state, country numbers is at:  https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk  Site supplies case numbers, recovered cases and deaths by country and US state.

World population: 7.8  BILLION

3,935,828

Active cases

2,341,867

+53,845

Recovered cases

1,319,306

+36,376

Fatal cases

274,655

+5,091