Projections from University of Washington Study: April 5

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Major decrease in projections for State of California and Washington thus US death projection is down..

PROJECTION:

As of April 5, 2020

United States of America:  (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020)  Deaths

>Population 331 Millions  (2020) 

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California:  (1,783 Deaths   4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)

>39.56 millions (2018)

Florida:  (6770 deaths 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)

>Population  21.3 million (2018)

Illinois: (3,629 deaths 4-5-2020)(3,386  4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

>12.74 million (2018)

Louisiana: 746 deaths 4-5-2020

>4.6 million (2018)

Ohio:  544

>11.69 million (2018)

Massachusetts  8,254 deaths

>6.9 million (2018)

Michigan  2,963 deaths

>9.996 million (2018)

New York: (15,618 deaths 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

>19.54 million (2018)

Texas:  (2,025 4-5-2020)

>28,7 million (2018)

Washington:  632 deaths 4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

>7.536 million (2018)

Wisconsin:  (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

>5.814 Million (2018)

April 5: 11,256 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results

Positive

(11,256  4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)

Deaths

(274  4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

(58,983  4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

_{*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.}
Information regarding the number of people under investigation updated on 3/30/2020.
Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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Increase in Illinois projected deaths; peak changed to higher number 8 days earlier.

The University of Washington model has a large increase in total deaths for Illinois and places peak date of cases two days later than on March 31 when it was 4-16-2020

PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois

(3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)   

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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Cases in U.S.

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Updated  April 5, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

• Total cases : (304,826  4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
• Total deaths:  (7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Sizeable decrease in estimated US deaths, peak is now extended by 16 days but somewhat higher.

PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020: (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,644 on 4-16-2020

Older Peak Daily Deaths  (3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2020) (2,271 3/30/2020)