Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Illinois will lose one Congressional Seat but actual population is basically stable.

The “Illinois Exodus” numbers were all spectacularly wrong

Tuesday, Apr 27, 2021

* The Chicago Tribune and the “Illinois Exodus”…

* 2021 John Kass column: Illinois has lost close to a quarter-million taxpayers in the past 10 years in the great Illinois Exodus.

* 2020 Tribune editorial: In 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau calculates, our population fell by about 51,250 people. That’s the equivalent of everyone in Hoffman Estates packing up and heading out.

* 2020 Tribune editorial: Several recent Chicago Tribune stories on tax hikes and population losses may have caught your eye. Against the backdrop of rising taxes in Chicago for 2020, U.S. Census Bureau numbers released Dec. 30 showed Illinois losing population for a sixth straight year.

* 2020 Kristen McQueary column: You’ve seen the numbers. U.S. census data released in December showed Illinois’ net population since 2013 has dropped by more than 223,000 residents, roughly the equivalent of Naperville and Bolingbrook wiped off the map. That number includes births, deaths, domestic and international migration.

* 2019 Kristen McQueary column: Reality check: The number of residents fleeing Illinois for other states jumped to 93,704 in 2014 from 68,204 the previous year. It increased in 2015 to 106,544, and in 2016 to 109,941. More exodus in 2017 of 114,779 and last year, another 114,154.

* 2019 Tribune editorial: Who wants to be the last ones at the party? It only means you’ll have to clean up the mess. That’s what we mean by the Illinois Exodus.

* 2019 Tribune editorial: If [Mayor Lightfoot] keeps talking truth around her fellow Illinois Democrats, Chicago’s next mayor will make them squirm. She must be ignoring the memos instructing her to “Shush up about the ‘Illinois Exodus.’ Bad for our brand.” Lightfoot offered her comment to the Tribune’s Lisa Donovan about U.S. census data showing that the Chicago metro area lost another 22,000 residents from 2017 to 2018.

* 2019 Tribune editorial: Last year’s estimated net reduction of residents hit 45,116, the worst of five straight years of population decline.

* 2019 Tribune editorial: The early numbers show Illinois’ net population dropped from July 2018 to July 2019 by 51,250, down slightly from last year’s net loss of 55,757 residents, an updated number. The figures continue to confirm a sorry trend.

* 2018 Tribune Editorial: People are fleeing. Last year’s net loss: 33,703.

* 2018 Tribune editorial: By the tens of thousands each year, Illinoisans are fleeing this state’s rising taxes and mediocre jobs climate.

* 2018 Tribune editorial: In the big picture, Illinois is shrinking. It lost a net 33,703 people in 2017, and was 1 of 8 states to see a decline. This was Illinois’ fourth year in a row of population decline.

* 2018 Tribune editorial: The release on Wednesday of new census data about Illinois was alarming: Not only has the flight of citizens continued for a fifth straight year, but the population loss is intensifying. This year’s estimated net reduction of 45,116 residents is the worst of these five losing years.

* 2017 Tribune editorial: People are fleeing Illinois in record numbers. For four years running, this state has bled population. In 2017, Illinois lost a net 33,703 residents

* Actual net Illinois population loss according to the official US Census: 18,124. [And subtract 10,289 from that to account for Illinois residents living overseas and it’s a net decline of 7,835.]

It’s not that the Tribune was wrong. The census estimates were way off. But the Tribune did everything it could to hype those numbers and propose solutions to a problem that, while still quite real, was never as bad as was claimed. I’m not sure I’d hold your breath waiting for a clarification.

- Posted by Rich Miller

Above story is from:  https://capitolfax.com/2021/04/27/the-illinois-exodus-numbers-were-all-spectacularly-wrong/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

April 27: 2556 New COVID 19 Cases in Illinois

May be an image of text that says 'DAILY REPORT COVID-19 April 27, 2021 Public Health Boone County Health Department COVID-19 COMMUNITY UPDATE Boone County Boone County Boone County Positivity Rate Daily Case Count Daily Death Count 6.9% 17 0 Seven-Day Rolling Average 6,512 Cumulative Cases Illinois Positivity Rate 4.1% 71 Cumulative Deaths Illinois Daily Case Count 2,556 Seven-Day Rolling Average Illinois Daily Death Count 23 1,325,726 Cumulative Cases 21,858 Cumulative Deaths All data are provisional and subject to change.'

April 27: Johns Hopkins COVID 19 Report

COVID-19

The Center also produces US Travel Industry and Retail Supply Chain Updates. You can access them here.

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 147.5 million cases and 3.1 million deaths worldwide as of 10:00am EDT on April 27. The WHO reported a new record high last week in terms of weekly incidence, with nearly 5.7 million new cases. Weekly incidence increased for the ninth consecutive week. Global weekly mortality increased for the sixth consecutive week, up to 87,733 deaths—the highest weekly total since the first week of February.

India continues to set new global records in terms of daily incidence. On April 24, India became the first country to surpass 300,000 new cases per day, and its daily incidence continues to increase rapidly. India is currently reporting more than 330,000 new cases per day, and if it continues on this trajectory, it could surpass 350,000 new cases per day in the next 2-3 days. The rate of increase appears to have slowed slightly over the past several days, but it is not yet clear whether this is an early sign of a longer-term trend. India also became the first country to report more than 350,000 new cases in a single day on April 25.

Turkey’s daily incidence peaked on April 20, with 60,266 new cases per day. Turkey approached Brazil (#3) and the US (#2)—both of which continue to report decreasing daily incidence—but it did not surpass either country before declining for 6 consecutive days. The epidemics in Argentina, Colombia, Germany, and Iran also appeared to level off over the past several days. France’s and Italy’s epidemics are declining as well.

Global Vaccination

The WHO reported 961 million vaccine doses administered globally, including more than 500 million individuals with at least 1 dose. The WHO dashboard does not yet include data for daily or weekly vaccinations or fully vaccinated individuals.

According to Our World in Data, the global cumulative total doses administered surpassed 1 billion doses. This is 13% more than this time last week, slightly lower than the previous growth rate of approximately 18% per week. After 6 days of declining averages, the daily doses administered rebounded slightly over the past 6 days, back up to 16.6 million.

UNITED STATES

The US CDC reported 31.9 million cumulative cases and 569,272 deaths. Both daily incidence and mortality are decreasing in the US. Daily incidence is down to 54,405 new cases per day, a 22% decrease from the most recent peak on April 13 (69,878). Daily mortality fell to 661 deaths per day, which is still essentially equal to the low that preceded the autumn/winter 2020 surge (662).

US Vaccination

The US has distributed 291 million doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and administered 231 million doses. Daily doses administered* continue to decrease, down from a high of 3.2 million (April 11) to 2.6 million. Approximately 1.4 million people are achieving fully vaccinated status per day.

A total of 141 million individuals have received at least 1 dose of the vaccine, equivalent to 43% of the entire US population and 54% of all adults. Of those, 96 million (29% of the total population; 37% of adults) are fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 65 years and older, progress has largely stalled at 82% with at least 1 dose and 68% fully vaccinated. In terms of full vaccination, 48 million individuals have received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, 40 million have received the Moderna vaccine, and 8.0 million have received the J&J-Janssen vaccine.

As of April 19, all US states expanded vaccination eligibility to all individuals aged 16 years and older, but the pace of vaccinations is beginning to taper off. Since the national high of 3.2 million doses per day on April 11, the daily average has steadily decreased by more than 20%, down to 2.4 million*. Even with everyone aged 16 years and older now eligible and with sufficient supply, progress toward herd immunity will slow considerably over the coming weeks for a variety of reasons. Some reasons include vaccine opposition and hesitancy, barriers to accessing the vaccine, and dwindling unvaccinated population. In light of the slowing pace, we will look at state-level trends in daily vaccine administration.

*The US CDC does not provide a 7-day average for the most recent 5 days due to anticipated reporting delays for vaccine administration. This estimate is the most current value provided.

The majority of states reported their peak doses administered around the time they expanded eligibility to everyone aged 16 years and older or shortly thereafter. More than half of US states (27) reported peaks between 3 days before and 11 days after they expanded to full eligibility. Three states—New Mexico (44 days before), Oklahoma (32 before), and South Dakota (39 before)—reported peaks more than 4 weeks before they expanded eligibility to all individuals aged 16 years and older. If you remove short, temporary reporting spikes for these states, however, their peaks would be in early April, near or shortly after they expanded eligibility. Three (3) states reported peaks at least 3 weeks after they expanded eligibility: Alaska (+35 days), Florida (+25), and Utah (+26). All 3 states reported peaks in early-to-mid April, similar to many other states, but they expanded eligibility much earlier than most states. Alaska was the first state to expand eligibility to everyone aged 16 years and older (March 9), and Florida (March 25) and Utah (March 24) were among the first 6 states to do so.

In total, 9 states reported their peak daily doses administered by the end of March; however, none of these states appear to have exhibited a definitive early peak. Notably, reporting aberrations could account for nearly half of these states. As noted above, the peaks in New Mexico (February 25), Oklahoma (February 25), and South Dakota (February 25) appear to be due to reporting fluctuations, and Louisiana (March 13) exhibited a similar brief spike. The true peaks for these states were actually in early April. Additionally, Arizona’s peak was on March 31, just before April, and Idaho’s average held relatively steady between March 24 and April 13. Iowa (March 13), Mississippi (March 4), and North Carolina (March 18) all reported early peaks, followed by a slight decrease and then a second peak in April that was nearly as high, before finally beginning to decline steadily.

Only 3 states reported their record high in the past week: California (April 20), Hawai’i (April 26), and Maryland (April 24). California and Hawai’i were among the last states to expand to full eligibility (April 15 and 19, respectively). The peak in Hawai’i could be a function of a spike in reported doses on April 20, but the trend does appear to still be increasing overall. More than half of all states (28) reported their peak daily doses administered within the past 2 weeks.

A total of 6 states are currently reporting increasing daily doses administered over the past week**. Pennsylvania reported its highest peak on April 16, but its overall trend appears to still be increasing. As noted above, Hawai’i reported a sharp spike in doses administered on April 20, which puts its weekly average far above the previous week; however, it still appears to be exhibiting an increasing trend since that jump. While Idaho and Wyoming are reporting increases compared to last week, they both appear to be exhibiting an overall decline in daily doses administered—although it is a little difficult to be certain due to fluctuations in the weekly average. Rhode Island and Minnesota appear to be near their respective peaks, but they have not begun to exhibit a clear decline. Massachusetts also could still be approaching its peak, but it is difficult to determine the longer-term trend. The remaining states generally appear to be past their peak and either holding relatively steady or declining. Nine (9) states are holding steady (including Massachusetts), and 35 are reporting decreasing trends**.

**Increasing means at least a 5% increase compared to this time last week, holding steady is less than a 5% increase or decrease, and decreasing means 5% or greater decrease.

The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center is reporting 32.1 million cumulative cases and 572,794 deaths as of 11:15am EDT on April 27.

INDIA India is experiencing the world’s largest COVID-19 surge, with more than 350,000 new cases per day. Experts fear the true number of cases could be substantially higher, with cases underreported for reasons including a variety in case-reporting infrastructures and lack of testing. Under the already strained health care system, hospitals are unable to take new patients and many grieving families have been forced to forgo regular funeral ceremonies formass cremations, painting a devastating picture of the reality on the ground. India’s government has left decisions about non-pharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing or mask wearing up to individual states, with many citizens lamenting a lack of proper government direction and dearth of resources, including diagnostics, hospital bed space, and oxygen. While some volunteers, dubbed “COVID Warriors,” are developing databases to connect people to resources, hospitals, and supplies, others are turning to the black market in a last-ditch effort to save their loved ones. In response tointernational pressure and rising calls for action, the US government on April 25announced intentions to provide supplies and support to India, and lifted previous bans on the export of raw materials, diagnostic kits, and equipment. Additionally, USAID and the US CDC are deploying a “strike team” of staffers to India to work with local governments and organizations to address the surge in cases.

US DONATING ASTRAZENECA-OXFORD VACCINE The US government announced on April 26 it intends to share up to 60 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with other nations, greatly expanding its previous announcement to share about 4 million doses of the vaccine with Mexico and Canada. The US FDA has not yet authorized the AstraZeneca-Oxford for emergency use, although it is widely available in other countries. White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeffrey Zients said about 10 million doses of the vaccine are undergoing a safety and quality review, which is expected to be complete in the next several weeks. An additional 50 million doses are in various production stages and could be available to ship in May and June after FDA review. White House officials said they are in the planning phase and do not yet know which countries will receive the donated doses. The announcement followed a conversation between US President Joe Biden and India Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose country currently is facing the world’s largest surge in COVID-19 cases. The US government has come under increasing pressure to do more to address the pandemic abroad, and the announcement marks a shift in the government’s willingness to commit to vaccine donations.

VACCINE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY US Trade Representative Katherine Tai on April 26 met virtually with executives of Pfizer and AstraZeneca to discuss increasing access to and production of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The meetings follow delivery to the White House of a petition signed by more than 2 million people urging the US government to support a proposal at the World Trade Organization to temporarily waive the intellectual property (IP) rights of pharmaceutical companies to allow low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to more easily produce SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. India and South Africa, with support from more than 100 LMICs, repeatedly have proposed the waiver to the WTO’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), but their efforts have failed amid pushback from the pharmaceutical industry and several wealthy nations, including the US. Industry lobbyists have increased their efforts to oppose a waiver, with some warning a loosening of patents could expose new technologies to exploitation by China and Russia. However, US trade officials have acknowledged steps need to be taken to increase global vaccine production, as gaps in access could undermine US progress toward ending the COVID-19 pandemic. Tai’s meetings with the pharmaceutical executives reflect the USTR’s engagement in efforts to increase access to vaccines and support her statements at a recent WTO meeting that the divide in access is “completely unacceptable.”

J&J-JANSSEN VACCINE & BLOOD CLOTS The US CDC and US FDA on April 23 recommended resuming use of the J&J-Janssen SARS-CoV-2 vaccine following a temporary pause. The agencies issued a pause on April 13 due to reports of rare but potentially serious blood-clotting events among 6 vaccine recipients, out of nearly 7 million recipients at the time. The FDA has amended the vaccine’s Emergency Use Authorization to mention the potential for clotting issues and will add warnings on fact sheets for providers and vaccinees specifically mentioning blood clots occurring with low platelets. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) also recommended the continued use of the vaccine after a meeting on Friday, saying their review of data shows that the J&J-Janssen vaccine’s “known and potential benefits outweigh its known and potential risks.” The committee emphasized that nearly all reported cases of the adverse event occurred among women younger than age 50, that those women should be aware of the rare but increased risk, and that there are other SARS-CoV-2 vaccine options. Some experts are warning the pause might have caused more harm than good, with more than 10 million doses of the single-shot vaccine now waiting to be administered. According to a Washington Post-ABC poll, only 22% of respondents who are not yet vaccinated said they are willing to receive the J&J-Janssen vaccine. This unwillingness of the public to use the vaccine could negatively impact US vaccination efforts, especially in rural areas, prisons, and among homebound or transient populations, where the single-dose shot provided convenience.

On April 20, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) issued a statement recommending a warning about unusual blood clots with low blood platelets be added to the label of the J&J-Janssen vaccine but maintained these events should be listed as very rare. Like the US agencies, the European regulator emphasized that the vaccine’s benefits in preventing COVID-19 outweigh the risks of adverse events. On April 23, the EMA Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) addressed concerns over blood-clotting events associated with the AstraZeneca-Oxford SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, saying people who have received a first dose should move forward to receive a second dose between 4 and 12 weeks after their initial shot. As we previously reported, the same rare type of blood clots with low platelet counts have been identified among some people who received that vaccine, which uses a viral vector platform similar to the J&J-Janssen vaccine.

US CDC RECOMMENDS VACCINATION FOR PREGNANT WOMEN Following the publication of preliminaryfindings detailing the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in pregnant persons in the April 21 New England Journal of Medicine, US CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a briefing on April 23 that the agency recommends all pregnant persons receive a vaccine. Dr. Walensky noted that no safety concerns arose for pregnant persons vaccinated during their third trimester nor for their infants, although the study did not include the J&J-Janssen vaccine. Experts have taken special interest in the effect of vaccinations in pregnant persons, and a study published on April 22 in JAMA Pediatrics shows they are at ahigher risk for complications due to COVID-19. The research, which described the experiences of 2,130 pregnant persons in 18 countries, concluded that the risks of COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality among pregnant people and their infants are greater than previously thought, underscoring the importance of vaccination for pregnant people. 

BRAZIL REJECTS RUSSIAN VACCINE Brazil’s national health surveillance agency Anvisa has rejected importation of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, citing a lack of consistency in the vaccine’s efficacy and safety data. The decision was made following a unanimous vote from Anvisa’s 5 board directors, each of whom expressed doubts about the vaccine candidate’s benefits and concerns over the potential risk of harmful adverse events. Ana Carolina Moreira Marino Araújo, advisor for the Directorate of Authorization and Registration at Anvisa, stated the agency’s inspectors were denied access to key manufacturing facilities in Russia and found faults in areas they were able to inspect. Russian officials pushed back against the decision, alleging it was politically rather than scientifically motivated. The Gamaleya National Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology, which developed the Sputnik V vaccine, maintains the vaccine’s efficacy to be 97.6% in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 disease. Several of Brazil’s state governments have contracts to receive millions of Sputnik V doses once it is cleared for importation. Despite pushback, Anvisa has stood behind its decision, even amid circulation of the P.1 SARS-COV-2 variant, saying other SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are approved for use in Brazil.

SECOND DOSES According to new US CDC data reported by multiple news media outlets, nearly 8% of people who received their first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have not received their second dose. That is more than double the rate seen in the early part of vaccination campaigns, from December 2020 to February 2021. The CDC’s new data cover missed doses through April 9, including those who received a first Moderna dose by March 7 or a first Pfizer-BioNTech dose by March 14. Reasons for the lapses in dosing vary, ranging from a lack of supply, fears of side effects, or feelings among vaccine recipients that one dose provides sufficient protection, especially as vaccine administration becomes more widespread. But the increasing number of people missing or foregoing a second dose is fueling concern among state public health officials, some of whom are implementing reminder services and allocating doses to be used specifically for people who are overdue for their second shot. Data from clinical trials and real-world follow-up studies show that a single dose triggers a weaker immune response than two doses, potentially leaving those one-dose recipients more susceptible to infection.

Brazil is facing similar concerns, with 1.5 million people missing appointments for their second dose, according to the Ministry of Health. In a technical note issued April 26, the agency urged people to receive their second dose even if the recommended timing target had passed. Some experts cited concerns over real-world data from Chile, showing the Sinovac SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, which accounts for about 80% of Brazil's vaccination program, is only 16% effective after one shot. The Ministry of Health said it is planning a national media campaign to improve communication surrounding the importance of getting the second dose.

EU LAWSUIT AGAINST ASTRAZENECA The European Commission (EC), the EU’s executive branch, announced a lawsuit against AstraZeneca alleging the company has failed to meet its contractual agreements for vaccine delivery. The lawsuit claims AstraZeneca has failed to deliver hundreds of millions of vaccine doses in a timely manner, according to an advanced purchase agreement. AstraZeneca previously stated it would only be able to provide about 100 million out of 300 million promised vaccine doses by the end of June. EC representatives also allege AstraZeneca has not developed an adequate strategy to combat delivery delays. In response to the lawsuit, AstraZeneca said in a statement that it is on course to fulfill its commitments to the EU for the end of this month and noted that its vaccine made up 97% of the vaccine doses provided through the COVAX facility. The lawsuit follows a dispute resolution mechanism launched by the EC in March that was intended to internally settle existing disputes between the two entities. Regardless of the outcome, the fact remains that the EU has fewer than anticipated doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to distribute among its Member States. To fill in some of these gaps, EC President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new contract with Pfizer-BioNTech last week for 1.8 billion doses of its vaccine over the 2021-2023 period.

LONG-TERM EFFECTS Research continues to better characterize the long-term health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, formally referred to as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) and commonly referred to as “long COVID.” Researchers from St. Louis, Missouri (US), published an analysis of morbidity and mortality risk in the 6 months following infection. The study, published in Nature, included data from more than 73,000 COVID-19 patients treated in the US Department of Veterans Affairs health system and compared them with nearly 5 million non-COVID-19 patients within the system. The researchers found that mortality risk among COVID-19 patients beyond the first 30 days of illness was nearly 60% higher, corresponding to 8.39 excess deaths per 1,000 individuals at the 6-month point. The excess deaths among hospitalized COVID-19 patients was even higher (28.79).

The researchers also observed a statistically significant increase in outpatient care and use of certain treatment drugs, including opioid and non-opioid pain medications, among COVID-19 patients. The use of beta blockers and opioid analgesics was nearly 10 times higher among COVID-19 patients when compared with non-COVID-19 patients. The study presents detailed results for more than 75 conditions and medications associated with COVID-19. Notably, many of the statistically significant results remained when compared against seasonal influenza patients. This appears to be the largest study of its kind to evaluate the long-term health effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

HOMELESSNESS & VACCINATION As the US moves toward increased SARS-CoV-2 vaccine coverage among a majority of adults, current vaccination efforts aim to address at-risk and vulnerable populations, such aspersons experiencing homelessness. Public health officials are facing vaccine refusal and hesitancy among the entire US population, but they face additional policy and logistical challenges—such as the added complexity of a multi-dose regimen—when creating outreach plans for persons experiencing homelessness. Reaching adequate coverage among this population will require joint task forces, community-level outreach, information and education campaigns geared at addressing vaccine willingness, and establishing mobile vaccination teams to meet residents where they are. For example, theCity of San Francisco implemented mobile teams to serve homebound adults and people living in congregate facilities. Community members and non-profit organizations are collaborating to provide food and other incentives at vaccination events to increase accessibility and awareness of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Climate change is transforming Illinois

Climate change is transforming Illinois, with more to come, major report by The Nature Conservancy concludes

Human health, agriculture, water supplies and ecosystems are at risk without immediate, lasting action, according to comprehensive assessment

April 20, 2021 | Chicago, IL

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Illinois is undergoing a rapid change in weather patterns that already has started to transform the state, a major new scientific assessment by The Nature Conservancy in Illinois details.
The assessment foretells long-term, serious effects on cities and rural communities alike from climate change that include periods of extreme heat, increased precipitation and more intense storms, particularly if immediate actions aren’t taken to lessen the threat.

Virtually all aspects of life will be affected, ranging from the health of humans, plants and animals to farming operations, in a state that is both the nation’s fifth-largest agricultural producer and home to the third-largest city.
“This assessment reveals how critical the crisis has become,” said Michelle Carr, state director of The Nature Conservancy in Illinois. “Decisive action and policies can still prevent our state from being forever altered, if we act now.”
The report is unique in that it focuses specifically on local impacts to Illinois, unlike most climate reports targeted at the national or global level.
“It’s the first time we’ve seen how specific climate threats will affect each region of the state,” Carr said. “That means we can target solutions locally, so they’re more effective.”
The comprehensive report found that:

  • The average daily temperature has increased by 1-2°F in most areas, and nighttime temperatures have risen about three times the rate of daytime temperatures over the past 120 years.
  • Precipitation has increased 5% to 20%, varying across the state, and the number of days with at least 2 inches of rain has increased by 40% over the past 120 years.
  • By the end of the century, unprecedented warming of 4°F to 14°F is likely, depending on the total emissions released into the atmosphere. That warming would be accompanied by large increases in extremely high temperatures, more intense storms and notably higher annual precipitation totals.
  • By the end of the century, total annual precipitation is projected to increase by 2-10%.

“We set out to determine exactly what climate change has in store for the state of Illinois, and we found that important changes are likely to occur in our climate, with major impacts on the people of Illinois,” said Dr. Donald J. Wuebbles, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, former White House expert on climate science and one of the lead authors of the assessment.

“These changes will affect all parts of Illinois, including our cities, our agricultural production, our water resources, and even the health of our people and the ecosystems in our state.”

The magnitude of climate change experienced in Illinois will depend on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions emitted globally. The assessment considered two scenarios to assess future climate impacts: 1) a lower scenario, which assumes rapid movement away from fossil fuels, and 2) a higher scenario, where emissions continue to rise throughout the century.
The assessment shows that actions to steeply reduce emissions are critical for averting the worst impacts of climate change.  

Other significant findings from the report include:

  • Hotter summer temperatures will mean longer, more severe droughts.
  • Flooding from streams and rivers has increased and likely will become more common, particularly on the Mississippi and Illinois rivers.
  • Intense rains stress aging urban drainage systems, many of which are already prone to flooding and sewage leakage.
  • Heat and water stress are likely to reduce corn yields by mid-century, depending on investments made today in agricultural technology and adaptive management, and livestock will face growing threats related to heat, reduced forage quality and increased disease.
  • The risk of severe heat-related illness will increase as extreme heat becomes more frequent.
  • An increase in flooding in Illinois will increase the risk of water-borne infectious diseases and mold exposure.
  • Climate change will stress Illinois’ remaining natural areas, which are already suffering due to large-scale land conversion and fragmentation.
  • Weeds, pests and diseases are expected to worsen because of warmer winters, increased spring precipitation and higher temperatures.

The assessment also reveals how climate challenges disproportionately affect low-income communities and communities of color, where environmental injustice and economic disparities have left more people vulnerable to health problems such as asthma, owing to higher air pollution rates, less access to parks and open spaces, and more. The findings highlight the importance of understanding the disparate impacts of climate change and developing equitable solutions.
“The challenges we expect Illinois to face from climate change underscore the importance of acting decisively to implement fair, ambitious solutions,” said Karen Petersen, climate change project manager at The Nature Conservancy. “There are so many steps we can take now to both drive down emissions and build resilience to climate change.”
For instance, flooding impacts can be lessened in a variety of ways. Increasing greenspace and decreasing impervious surfaces can help absorb additional water in cities, reducing runoff and flooding. In rural areas, land use planning can identify priority areas for floodplain reconnection and restoration to decrease flood risk.
Information on the impacts specific to Illinois can help local leaders develop just and effective approaches to climate change, ranging from transitioning to a clean energy economy to preparing the state for the impacts of a wetter, warmer climate.
While existing knowledge on the impacts of climate change in Illinois provides an excellent foundation and a clear call to action, additional research would further refine the projections:

  • Improved climate modeling. Higher-resolution models would provide more robust simulations of heatwaves, severe thunderstorms and extreme precipitation.
  • Water resources and flooding. Managing drinking and irrigation water supplies is critical in a changing climate, and large-scale water projects take a long time to build. Strategies to combine conventional infrastructure with green infrastructure could ease flooding risks.
  • Agriculture. Research is needed to understand how plants will respond to new stresses, such as higher carbon dioxide levels and longer droughts, under different management practices. It also would be useful to explore the impact of climate change on insects, microorganisms and weeds, both helpful and harmful.
  • Human health. Social science research is critical to improve understanding of the vulnerability of rural and urban communities; develop strategies to help people adapt to a changing climate; and improve adoption of health communication strategies. The relationship between climate change and mental health is a burgeoning field of research that needs continued support.
  • Ecosystems. Research is needed on how plants and animals cope with heavier precipitation and higher temperatures, to inform natural resource management decisions. In particular, studies are needed to improve ecosystem restoration efforts, which can help lessen the effects of climate change.

In addition to Wuebbles and Petersen, the report was co-led by Dr. James Angel, the Illinois state climatologist for 34 years, and Dr. Maria Lemke, director of conservation science at The Nature Conservancy.
An additional 41 scientists co-authored the report, representing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Centers for Disease Control, the U.S. Forest Service; and academic institutions, including the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, The University of Edinburgh, University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health, North Carolina State University, Northwestern University and Emory University.
For more information or to read the full report, visit the Climate Assessment Report website.

The Nature Conservancy is a global conservation organization dedicated to conserving the lands and waters on which all life depends. Guided by science, we create innovative, on-the-ground solutions to our world's toughest challenges so that nature and people can thrive together. We are tackling climate change, conserving lands, waters and oceans at an unprecedented scale, providing food and water sustainably and helping make cities more sustainable. Working in 72 countries and territories: 38 by direct conservation impact and 34 through partners, we use a collaborative approach that engages local communities, governments, the private sector, and other partners. To learn more, visit www.nature.org or follow @nature_press on Twitter.

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Rural Ambulance Crews Have Run Out of Money and Volunteers

Rural Ambulance Crews Have Run Out of Money and Volunteers

Strained by pandemic-era budget cuts, stress and a lack of revenue, at least 10 ambulance companies in Wyoming are in danger of shuttering — some imminently.

Stephanie Bartlett, left, and Cheryl Rixey pulling out a stretcher at a hospital in Sweetwater County, Wyo., for a patient transfer this month.

Stephanie Bartlett, left, and Cheryl Rixey pulling out a stretcher at a hospital in Sweetwater County, Wyo., for a patient transfer this month.Credit...Kim Raff for The New York Times

Ali Watkins

By Ali Watkins

Published April 25, 2021Updated April 27, 2021, 1:11 p.m. ET

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WORLAND, Wyo. — For three years, Luke Sypherd has run the small volunteer ambulance crew that services Washakie County, Wyo., caring for the county’s 7,800 residents and, when necessary, transporting them 162 miles north to the nearest major trauma center, in Billings, Mont.

In May, though, the volunteer Washakie County Ambulance Service will be no more.

“It’s just steadily going downhill,” Mr. Sypherd said. The work is hard, demanding and almost entirely volunteer-based, and the meager revenue from bringing patients in small cities like Worland to medical centers was steeply eroded during much of 2020 when all but the sickest coronavirus patients avoided hospitals.

Washakie County’s conundrum is reflective of a troubling trend in Wyoming and states like it: The ambulance crews that service much of rural America have run out of money and volunteers, a crisis exacerbated by the demands of the pandemic and a neglected, patchwork 911 system. The problem transcends geography: In rural, upstate New York, crews are struggling to pay bills. In Wisconsin, older volunteers are retiring, and no one is taking their place.


The situation is particularly acute in Wyoming, where nearly half of the population lives in territory so empty it is still considered the frontier. At least 10 localities in the state are in danger of losing ambulance service, some imminently, according to an analysis reviewed by The New York Times.
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Many of the disappearing ambulances are staffed by volunteers, and some are for-profit ambulance providers that say they are losing money. Still others are local contractors hired by municipalities that, strained by the budget crisis of the pandemic, can no longer afford to pay them. Thousands of Wyoming residents could soon be in a position where there is no one nearby to answer a call for help.

“Nobody can figure out a solution,” said Andy Gienapp, the recent administrator for emergency medical services at the Wyoming Department of Health. “Communities are faced with confronting the very real crisis of, ‘We don’t know how we’re going to do this tomorrow, because nobody’s doing it for free.’”

‘Nobody wants to pay for it’

About 230 miles southwest of Washakie County, Ron Gatti is preparing to close up Sweetwater Medics, a small ambulance provider in Sweetwater County, where 42,000 people are spread across 10,000 square miles. Facing a budget crisis, the county is expected to end its contract with Mr. Gatti’s ambulance service in June.

The situation is a direct result of the pandemic, Mr. Gatti and county officials said. Rock Springs, the town that Sweetwater Medics serves, was looking for budget cuts; the ambulance contract was one of them. Mr. Gatti’s company proposed transitioning to a public, tax-supported service, funded by the county, he said, but the money was not there.


“Everybody wants it and nobody wants to pay for it,” said Jeff Smith, a commissioner in Sweetwater County.

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Instead, after June 30, the regional hospital will have to respond on its own to emergency calls.

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Sweetwater County is expected to end its contract with Ron Gatti’s ambulance service, Sweetwater Medics, in June.Credit...Kim Raff for The New York Times

Mr. Sypherd, who is also president of the Wyoming E.M.S. Association, keeps a list in his head of ambulance companies, large and small, in imminent danger of closing. There is Sweetwater Medics, which could be gone by autumn. Sublette County’s service was recently saved after voters approved a small tax increase, which will fund a new hospital and the affiliated ambulance. Albin, near Cheyenne, no longer has enough volunteers to fill its crew.

“The ambulance at Albin is fiscally healthy. There’s just nobody to give it to,” said Carrie Deselms, who helps direct the program.

Fremont County, home to the state’s Wind River Indian Reservation, is set to lose its only ambulance service, American Medical Response, a national for-profit company that merged recently with the company that has handled the county’s ambulance service since 2016.

Now, American Medical Response says its profit margins cannot justify remaining there. The company has informed county officials that it will not rebid when its contract runs out this summer.

“The call volume in Fremont County plummeted, making it impossible to cover increasing operational costs without a subsidy” said Randy Lyman, the Northwest regional president for Global Medical Response, the parent company of American Medical Response. “The revenue alone simply wasn’t sufficient.”

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An unsustainable model, strained further

There is a misconception, fueled by stories of astronomical bills and post facto charges, that ambulance service is a sustainable — even lucrative — business model. The truth, medical professionals say, is that those bills are rarely paid in full, by Medicare, private insurance or otherwise. Even in New York City, which operates ambulance services alongside its Fire Department, ambulances do not make enough money on their own to survive.

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“Revenue does not come close to covering the full cost of operating E.M.S.,” said Frank Dwyer, a Fire Department spokesman.

For years, paramedics and emergency technicians have warned that these unreliable revenue streams put the country’s emergency medical systems in danger of collapse. The current crisis in rural service, experts say, was almost certain to arrive at some point, but the pandemic expedited it.

“It is a universal issue,” said Tristan North, a senior vice president with the American Ambulance Association, which represents crews in rural and urban areas. “If you have a pretty steady volume, then you can get some efficiencies of scale and have a better idea as far as budgeting, whereas in a rural area, it’s far less predictable because you have a smaller population.”


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Without Sweetwater Medics, county residents will have no E.M.S. services available when they call 911.

Without Sweetwater Medics, county residents will have no E.M.S. services available when they call 911.Credit...Kim Raff for The New York Times

Critical to an ambulance’s survival is its ability to transport patients to hospitals, which allows it to bill for a transport. That limited revenue stream dried up during the pandemic, according to workers across the country, when crews were discouraged from transporting all but the sickest of patients.

Instead of transporting patients to hospitals, crews were being directed to provide care on scene, Mr. Gienapp, of the Wyoming health department, said. “E.M.S. doesn’t get paid for any of that,” he said.

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At the same time, many of the standard sorts of medical emergencies that helped keep ambulances afloat disappeared, either because people were moving around less, or were fearful of going to a hospital and exposing themselves to the coronavirus.

“There is not sufficient E.M.S. volume in this entire service area to make this a profitable, break-even venture,” Mr. Gatti, of Rock Springs, said. “This is an essential service that doesn’t pay for itself.”

In dense urban areas like New York or Los Angeles, there are enough people and everyday maladies that an ambulance service can come closer to sustaining itself, and enough of a tax base that cities can support it. But in places like Wyoming, the least populous state and one notoriously averse to tax increases, each missed transport in 2020 was critically lost revenue.

Unlike fire and police departments, many states do not consider ambulances to be “essential services.” Only a handful of states require local governments to provide them.

For most of the country, access to an ambulance is a lottery. Some municipalities provide them as a public service, funded by taxpayers, while some contract with for-profit ambulance companies. Most rely on the willingness of volunteer companies, like Mr. Sypherd’s in Washakie County, which are buoyed by a patchwork system of public and private funding streams.

But across the country, E.M.S. professionals say fewer and fewer people are willing to volunteer for the job, a phenomenon accelerated by the stress of the pandemic. Many municipalities expect volunteers to take time away from work, something few people can now afford to do.

“The donated labor is not there anymore,” Mr. Gienapp said.

Same job, new patch

On May 1, Mr. Sypherd will put on a new uniform.

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For more than a year, he had known Washakie County’s system was unsustainable. In an effort to ensure an ambulance remained in Worland, Mr. Sypherd reached out to Cody Regional Health, a hospital system based near Yellowstone National Park, and began exploring whether the agency would take over his ambulance company.

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Ms. Bartlett in the ambulance bay at the Sweetwater Medics station in Rock Springs.Credit...Kim Raff for The New York Times

It is a trend that is gaining traction in rural states like Wyoming: In the absence of volunteer ambulance crews or sustainable funding from local governments, some struggling ambulance services are accepting takeovers from local hospitals and health care systems.

The system is not ideal, experts acknowledge, and it could leave large swaths of rural America disconcertingly far from ambulance service. Still, faced with the alternative, many crews like Mr. Sypherd’s are grudgingly accepting the help. In May, Washakie County Ambulance Service will become a Cody Regional Health ambulance company, and will keep many of Mr. Sypherd’s original crew on staff.

“It’s the right thing to do,” said Phillip Franklin, the director of Cody Regional Health’s ambulance program.

So far, Mr. Franklin and his team have taken over two struggling ambulance companies in northwest Wyoming, and they are trying to help others with their workload.

The reality, he says, is that without help from systems like Cody’s, many of the ambulances in rural Wyoming will fail.

“Someone is always going to have to subsidize rural America,” he said.

Ali Watkins is a reporter on the Metro desk, covering crime and law enforcement in New York City. Previously, she covered national security in Washington for The Times, BuzzFeed and McClatchy Newspapers. @AliWatkins

Above is from:  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/us/rural-ambulance-coronavirus.html?fbclid=IwAR0OuRjFlY2RM9--mpF3e8vuq1EMCJqXeKSCxH6uhKSE_taRtG4v-wbzv8g

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