Monday, September 21, 2015

Understanding John Boehner, reluctant ringleader of GOP shutdown politics - CSMonitor.com

 

With just 10 days before the federal government runs out of money, GOP hardliners are threatening the second widespread government shutdown in two years, this time over federal funding for Planned Parenthood.

They’re also considering a rare maneuver to oust Mr. Boehner from the speaker’s chair. It’s not the first time they’ve plotted to get rid of him.

Yet Boehner – “the coolest cucumber I know,” as one of his colleagues puts it – has been calmly exploring the options as the GOP leadership holds more than a half dozen “listening” sessions with members of the divided caucus. He still hasn’t found a funding solution that will satisfy everyone. He might not be able to. But pushing and prodding in his own unperturbed way, he won't stop trying.

“What Boehner does is, he’s very patient. He lets things play out for a while. He doesn’t get mad…. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t,” says John Feehery, former spokesman for Denny Hastert, the longest serving Republican speaker.

It’s the tactics – not the ideology – that separate the speaker from his right flank. In 2013, when tea partyers forced a 16-day partial government shutdown over Obamacare, Boehner was as opposed to the Affordable Care Act as they were.

But he repeatedly warned against a shutdown. Failing to persuade, he eventually joined in, leading the way on several measures to delay or defund the president’s signature domestic program. On Day 16, after having exhausted all his options, he gave up the fight – and received a standing ovation from his caucus, hardliners included, for his efforts.

As he explained to the former late-night television host Jay Leno last year, “You learn that a leader without followers is simply a man taking a walk.”

This time, Boehner is again in lockstep with the right flank on the substance of the issue. Videos showing officials of Planned Parenthood, a women’s health provider, discussing the sale of aborted fetus parts for scientific research are “gruesome,” he has said, and the federal government should stop funding the group.

Yet neither he nor Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky want to shut down the government over it. Trying to defund Planned Parenthood with a Democratic president in the White House is an “exercise in futility,” as Senator McConnell put it.

At a closed-door GOP caucus meeting last week, the House leadership shared internal polling that showed that two-thirds of respondents in 18 GOP swing districts oppose shutting the government to try to stop funding Planned Parenthood, according to Politico. In 2013, the GOP’s approval ratings plummeted in the wake of the shutdown.

That doesn’t mean much to Rep. John Fleming (R) of Louisiana, who belongs to the House Freedom Caucus, a group of more than 40 hardliners formed this year to challenge the GOP leadership. Congressman Fleming says he’s one of 31 members who have pledged not to vote for legislation – be it a short-term or long-term budget – that funds Planned Parenthood. “That’s my conscience vote.”

And so the speaker has been patiently rolling out other options – investigations of Planned Parenthood in the House, legislation to freeze funding for the organization, and an abortion-related bill. Both bills passed the GOP-controlled House on Friday, but will be blocked by Senate Democrats.

And that’s where another leadership proposal comes in. In order to actually get a defunding bill to the president’s desk, they’ve proposed using a legislative process known as “budget reconciliation” that only needs a majority vote to pass. It would get to the president all right, but he would veto it.

Hardliners say they aren’t interested in this “show vote.” Instead they seem determined to press for the shutdown, and try to put the blame on the president.

As the speaker cycles through his options and the calendar clicks closer to a shutdown, some of his allies are getting frustrated with the repeated clashes. There was another one earlier this year over immigration and funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

Boehner supporter Rep. Devin Nunes (R) of California calls the hardliners “right-wing Marxists” who use extreme tactics to promote themselves – and then offer no realistic, alternative plans. The speaker, he says with exasperation, “let’s these guys get away with everything.”

Take the case of Rep. Mark Meadows (R) of North Carolina, who in July filed a rare motion to “vacate the chair” and call a new election for the speakership. Such a move hasn’t been tried in 105 years – and it didn’t succeed then.

The speaker could have killed off the Meadows resolution in the Rules Committee, which the speaker controls – but he didn’t. He could have brought it immediately to the floor for a vote he would have won, and stamped out the spark before it caught fire – as some of his allies urged. He didn’t.

"He chose not to press his advantage and divide his caucus," said Rep. Tom Cole (R) of Oklahoma.

In July, Boehner called the Meadows move “no big deal,” but right-wingers are talking about returning to it after the pope’s visit this week. It is unlikely to succeed but nothing is certain.

Intraparty division is not new in Congress, says former House historian Ray Smock. He recalls the civil rights era, when both parties had deeply divided caucuses. But this is different, he says, because of the uncompromising wing of Boehner’s party.

“I think Boehner is seriously trying to run the House the way it’s supposed to be run, but this has been a losing proposition for him since the advent of the tea party,” says Mr. Smock. “You’ve got an awful lot of members in that caucus that don’t really care that government functions well. They’re elected as antigovernment people.”

Which raises the question: What’s the point of patience with recalcitrants?

Mr. Feehery says the free rein Boehner gave the tea partyers during the last shutdown could have been meant as a learning experience for them – but it simply emboldened them. Now it’s time for the speaker to make an example of a few people “and just kick them out of the conference.”

But then, Feehery admits, right-wing media would have a field day with that, and so would the “antiestablishment” presidential candidates.

And that’s not the Boehner way. “Members get not just second and third chances, they get repeated chances to operate as members of the team,” says Congressman Cole, a Boehner ally.

One thing’s certain: Democrats will not agree to defund Planned Parenthood. Boehner knows that. Eventually, he’ll have to work with Democrats to pass a “clean” funding bill that leaves the women’s health care provider alone.

What happens between now and then, though, is anybody’s guess.

Understanding John Boehner, reluctant ringleader of GOP shutdown politics - CSMonitor.com

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to drop out of GOP presidential race - Chicago Tribune

 

Scott Walker abandoned his bid for the Republican presidential nomination on Monday, exiting the race that saw him rise to front-runner and fall to afterthought in a matter of months.

The Wisconsin governor planned a news conference for Monday evening in Madison, where he was to announce he will be the second major GOP candidate to quit the race.

"It has been communicated to me that he is getting out of the race," said Iowa state Sen. Brad Zaun, who endorsed Walker earlier this year. "I'm proud of our efforts in Iowa. And I think he's an incredible candidate. It's unfortunate."

One of the last Republicans to enter the race, Walker will join former Texas Gov. Rick Perry as one of the first to leave it, having been unable to adjust to the popularity of billionaire businessman Donald Trump or break out in either of GOP's first two debates.

He will return to his job in Wisconsin as governor, where his term runs through 2018.

"I'm not sure what went wrong," said Iowa state Sen. Mark Costello, who endorsed Walker earlier this year. "I think all the more provocative statements some of the candidates made got them more press.

"I don't think he made any really big mistakes," Costello said, "but people lost enthusiasm."

Walker, 47, tried to appeal to religious conservatives, tea party conservatives and the more traditional GOP base. He tried to cast himself as an unintimidated conservative fighter who had a record of victories in a state that hasn't voted Republican for president since 1984.

He came to the race having won election in Wisconsin three times in four years, and having gained a national following among donors and conservatives by successfully pushing his state to strip union bargaining rights from its public workers.

Walker pointed to those Wisconsin wins, in a state that twice voted for Barack Obama as president, as signs that he could successfully advance a conservative agenda as the GOP's White House nominee.

He called himself "aggressively normal" and campaigned on a Harley-Davidson motorcycle, and made a splash in January with a well-received speech before religious conservatives in Iowa.

Groups backing Walker went on to raise $26 million, tapping wealthy donors whom Walker had cultivated in his years as governor and during his successful effort to win a recall election in 2012.

But Walker's fall was dramatic. He was unable to adjust to Trump's rise and repeatedly had trouble clearly stating his position on several issues.

He took days to clarify whether he supported ending birthright citizenship. He initially showed interest in building a wall between the U.S. and Canada, only to later laugh it off as ridiculous. Walker also declared he wasn't a career politician, despite having held public office for 22 straight years.

After Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina displaced Walker at the top of the polls, Walker took a more aggressive approach, promising to "wreak havoc" on Washington. He vowed to take on unions as president, just as he did as Wisconsin governor, outlawing them for federal government workers and making the entire country right-to-work.

But the anti-union policy proposal fell flat; announced in the days before the second GOP debate, it wasn't mentioned at all — by Walker or anyone else — on stage.

While only Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had more super PAC money available to boost their chances in the original 17-person 2016 Republican field, Walker struggled to generate money for his official campaign.

He has yet to report fundraising totals to federal regulators, but top fundraisers and donors have said his plummeting poll numbers left them struggling to generate cash.

Walker called his senior staff to the governor's mansion in Madison on Monday to review recent polling, in which he was mired at the bottom of the GOP field, and his campaign's finances.

"I'm disappointed," said Stanley Hubbard, a billionaire media mogul from Minneapolis who had backed Walker's campaign. "He's a good man and would have been a good president."

As word spread of his decision to exit the race, Republican operatives in Iowa working for other campaigns were already making plans to contact state lawmakers who had committed to support Walker.

The Wisconsin governor had assembled a campaign organization in every one of Iowa's 99 counties and had a number of state lawmakers committed to him.

Walker, one of the most divisive political figures in Wisconsin history, will have some work to do repairing his relationship with voters in his home state. His job approval ratings fell dramatically during his presidential run, hitting their lowest mark ever of 39 percent in an August poll conducted by Marquette University.

Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican and close ally of Walker's, said he "has an amazing story to tell about Wisconsin and the reforms we put into place."

But Vos said he suspects Walker realized he would have had a difficult time taking attention away from other candidates, like Trump, who are "sucking up a lot of the oxygen."

Associated Press

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to drop out of GOP presidential race - Chicago Tribune

Scott Walker Mounts a Last Stand in Iowa - Bloomberg Politics

 

Whether there's another climb up the tracks isn’t likely to be known for weeks or months, as Walker deploys a new strategy that places virtually all his chips on Iowa.

The signs of his precipitous fall were all too vivid Sunday afternoon inside Serena's Coffee Café in Amana, Iowa, where about 40 stoic supporters showed up for his first retail campaign event in the state since Wednesday's debate.

Gone were most of the network television cameras that had followed Walker much of the summer. Just one network was on hand, along with one reporter-photographer from a nearby station in Cedar Rapids. A second event at a Pizza Ranch in Vinton, Iowa, brought out another small crowd, along with one local TV camera.

Walker lingered at both events, shaking virtually every hand. He'd woken Sunday morning to news that he'd fallen below 1 percent in the most recent national CNN poll, a new all-time low for his candidacy that could further rattle donors.

In an interview, Walker said he's planning to spend 10 days a month in Iowa, "maybe more." Other than "fundraising and visits to New Hampshire and South Carolina," his time will be spent in Iowa, he said.

It will be so much time, he said, that people might think he's running for governor of the state. "People are going to know us like they know their governor in this state, there's no doubt about it," he said.

Walker's swing through three Iowa counties on Sunday brought his total to 33 visited, exactly a third of the number in the state overall. He's committed to hitting all of them before the caucuses.

In the interview, Walker said his campaign is paying its bills and not deficit spending. "We're on pace to do things right," he said. "We're not going to have a 50-state strategy right now."

It was just two months ago that Walker made his first trip into Iowa as declared official presidential candidate, amid soaring poll numbers and expectations for him in the state.

On his latest Iowa swing, the fallen Iowa front-runner showed an increased willingness to draw contrasts with other candidates, including Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

"You wouldn't hire me to build condos for you in New York City, or to be a neurosurgeon, or to run HP, because that's not where my skill sets are," he said in Vinton. "But if you want someone who has got a proven track record of taking on the Washington-based special interests and winning, if that's what you want—somebody who can shake things up in Washington—then I'm tested unlike anybody else in this race."

Speaking to reporters in Amana, Walker said he's convinced the donors in his database of 350,000 supporters from all 50 states will stick with him, in part on the strength of that network. 

Asked about the latest controversy surrounding Trump's candidacy—one that started Thursday when a man at one of his rallies in New Hampshire called President Barack Obama a Muslim who is not a U.S. citizen—Walker said he would have corrected the man.

"I don't think that's accurate and I don't think that's helpful for the discussion going forward," he said, adding that if it had happened at one of his event's he would have told the man he disagreed with him.

Interviews with potential supporters at Sunday's events showed Walker's collapse in the polls is weighing on their minds, even though most said they think there's time for him to recover.

Photographer: John McCormick/Bloomberg

Scott Walker's tour bus waits outside his statewide campaign office earlier this summer in suburban Des Moines.

Joel McElroy, a factory worker from Belle Plaine, Iowa, said he'd likely support Walker, if he remains a candidate. "It all depends on who is still around when caucus time comes around," he said. "The field will eventually narrow down."

Earl Lanphere, a Walker support from Swisher, Iowa, said he hopes Walker "holds in there long enough" until the field narrows down and Trump loses some standing. "I'm not going to give up on him," Lanphere said of Walker.

Walker's aides argue their candidate still isn't well known in Iowa or nationally, so there's room for growth. A national Quinnipiac University poll released Aug. 27 showed 43 percent of registered Republicans haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him, compared to just 9 percent for Trump.

In the most recent Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Walker was backed by just 8 percent of likely caucus-goers, less than half what he recorded in a late-May Iowa Poll. The only real upside for him was that he was the only candidate besides Carson to score a favorability rating above 70 percent.

As Trump has surged, Walker has been hurt more than any other candidate. Known as a disciplined campaigner in Wisconsin, he's suffered self-inflicted wounds on the national stage and turned into two debate performances that have been labeled lackluster.

Walker's focus on Iowa, even if successful, could put at risk his viability, should the nomination process drag into the spring or early summer of 2016, as Republican leaders and strategists increasingly expect. If he doesn't raise enough money to look and play like a national candidate, he might not have the resources to compete past Iowa.

As the fall campaign gets underway, Walker is getting some Iowa help from the super political action committee backing him. The Unintimidated PAC started running television spots the day after Labor Day on Walker's behalf as part of a $7 million campaign in the state.

Doug Gross, a Des Moines lawyer and Republican activist who was once Governor Terry Branstad's chief of staff, said he doesn't see a path for Walker in Iowa, given his tumble.

"He looks and acts and talks like a politician and that's not what people want," said Gross, who is neutral in the race, although also a longtime Bush family ally.

Garland S. Tucker III, a Walker donor who is chief executive of Raleigh-based Triangle Capital Corp., said he remains confident, at least for now. "I haven't given up, by any means," he said in an interview. "Sooner or later Trump's message is going to wear pretty thin."

Asked if he has a second-choice, should Walker exit the race or fail to regain any traction, Tucker said no. "I haven't found a need to do that yet," he said.

On a conference call with donors on Thursday, Walker and his team tried to calm the nerves of donors. One of the speakers was Todd Ricketts, a co-owner of the Chicago Cubs and one of Walker's two national finance chairmen. He told those on the call that their job was to "keep the gas in the Winnebago."

At least on Sunday, the gas-guzzling red and blue recreational vehicle that Walker's campaign rents for his travel in Iowa was still motoring across the state's interstates and highways.

Scott Walker Mounts a Last Stand in Iowa - Bloomberg Politics

Washington Post: Pope Francis visit puts Republicans on the defensive

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The Daily 202: Pope Francis visit puts Republicans on the defensive

THE BIG IDEA:

Back when John Paul II was Pope, conservatives relished attacking Democrats as “Cafeteria Catholics” for picking and choosing the church teachings that fit their politics. In 2004, the archbishop of St. Louis warned John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, “not to present himself for communion” because of his support for abortion rights. That cycle, the conservative Sioux Falls bishop ordered Tom Daschle to stop describing himself as a member of the Catholic Church, a breathtaking directive that Republicans used in their campaign to topple the then-Senate minority leader.

— With a new Pope, the shoe is on the other foot. Francis is a change agent who has de-emphasized traditional concerns like contraception, abortion, gay marriage and stem-cell research. The Argentine has spent much of his two-and-a-half years at the helm pressing issues that make conservatives uncomfortable.

— Top Democrats privately hope that Francis’s trip to the United States, which begins tomorrow, will make GOP leaders squirm as much as possible. Six Republican presidential candidates are Catholic: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum and George Pataki. The challenge for them is showing the Pope respect while distinguishing the moral realm from the political one, a delicate balancing act practiced by Democrats since John F. Kennedy.

— Here are seven of the major issues on which Pope Francis differs from most Republican politicians:

  1. He wants to open Cuba. His Vatican played a central behind-the-scenes role in last year’s secret U.S.-Cuba negotiations. Long before he was elevated to the papacy, with a book he wrote in the ’90s, Francis spoke out against the American embargo. Visiting Cuba this weekend, he praised the thaw between the two long-estranged neighbors as “an example of reconciliation for the entire world” that “fills us with hope.”
  2. He strongly backs immigration reform. The pope has decried the “inhuman” conditions that migrants face coming to the U.S. from Mexico, and he’s prodded Europe to accept more Syrian refugees. “I expect that Francis, in his address to Congress, will challenge our national conscience on immigration and remind us of the growing human toll resulting from our indifference and failures of political will,” Jose H. Gomez, the archbishop of Los Angeles, the nation’s largest Catholic community, writes in an op-ed for today’s Wall Street Journal. “In calling Americans to compassion and hospitality, he will also be calling us to reclaim our roots as a nation of immigrants and a refuge for the world’s downtrodden.”
  3. He calls for aggressive climate change action. The Pope issued a 184-page encyclical on climate change this summer, saying humans are mostly to blame. “The Earth, our home, is beginning to look more and more like an immense pile of filth,” he said, describing global warming as “one of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day.”
  4. He supports the Iran nuclear deal. Last week, at the International Atomic Energy Agency conference in Vienna, the Vatican’s foreign minister praised President Obama’s agreement, saying that “the way to resolve disputes and difficulties should always be that of dialogue and negotiation.”
  5. He recognizes Palestinian statehood. The Vatican signed a May treaty that was widely criticized by Jewish leaders in both Israel and the U.S.
  6. He talks about income inequality more than even the Democratic presidential candidates. Francis spent decades pastoring in the slums. “Inequality is the root of social evil,” Francis says. He decries “trickle-down theories” as a “structurally perverse economic system.” Visiting Bolivia this summer, the Pope called the unfettered pursuit of money “the dung of the devil.” He says the problems of the poor should be “radically resolved by rejecting the absolute autonomy of markets and financial speculation.”
  7. A devotee of social justice, this Pope has repeatedly urged more public assistance for the poor. “Politics, though often denigrated, remains a lofty vocation,” Francis wrote in a 2013 exhortation. “I beg the Lord to grant us more politicians who are genuinely disturbed by the state of society, the people, the lives of the poor! It is vital that government leaders and financial leaders take heed and broaden their horizons, working to ensure that all citizens have dignified work, education and healthcare.”

President Obama meets with Pope Francis in March 2014 at the Vatican. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

— The Pope will have several opportunities this week to weigh in on these hot-button issues. Vatican officials have telegraphed that he will be “frank but friendly.” Francis arrives at Andrews tomorrow at 4 p.m., marking the first time ever he will set foot on American soil. On Wednesday, he meets with President Obama at 9:15 a.m. After a parade, he addresses the U.S. Bishops Conference and then performs a mass of canonization for Junipero Serra. On Thursday, he addresses a joint session of Congress at 9:20 a.m. On Friday, he speaks to the United Nations at 8:30 a.m. On Sunday, he could offer support for criminal justice reform during a visit to a Pennsylvania prison.

— What the 78-year-old will say is always unpredictable, but the vast majority of Catholics support his meddling in public policy. Two-thirds of American Catholics said in a Washington Post-ABC poll that it’s appropriate during his congressional address for the Pope to urge action on social, economic and environmental issues. Only 13 percent of Catholics want the pope to be less active on such issues, compared to 30 percent who wish he was more active and 52 percent who want him to stay the course. Our poll found that only 55 percent of U.S. adults view the Catholic Church favorably, but 70 percent see Francis positively. Two-thirds of Americans, and an even higher 89 percent of self-identifying Catholics, approve of the direction in which Francis is leading the church. Only 13 percent of Catholics disapprove.

— Watch for escalating backlash to Francis from the Right.

  • George F. Will, who often praised John Paul II for his role in helping win the Cold War, ripped the new Pope’s “fact-free flamboyance” in a Sunday column.
  • Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), who calls himself “a proud Catholic,” announced plans last week to boycott the joint session  because of Francis’s “fool’s errand of climate change.” He writes in a TownHall op-ed that he has “a moral obligation” to “call out” the leader of his church and urges Francis to instead discuss religious freedom or the sanctity of human life.
  • Chris Christie yesterday criticized the Pope’s support for engagement with Cuba. “I just think the Pope was wrong,” he said. “The fact is that his infallibility is on religious matters, not on political ones.”
  • Donald Trump was asked Sunday about the Pope’s criticism of people who worship money. “If he knew me,” The Donald quipped, “I think he’d probably like me.”
  • Jeb Bush said in June: “I hope I’m not going to get castigated for saying this by my priest back home, but I don’t get economic policy from my bishops or my cardinals or my Pope.”
  • Rick Santorum as been less nuanced. “It’s sometimes very difficult to listen to the Pope and some of the things he says off the cuff,” he complained earlier this year.
  • Matt Drudge, the most influential curator on the right, slammed Francis as a hypocrite: