August 27: University of Washington COVID-19 Projections

This is a work in Progress

The projections from August 6 and August 21,are  projects through December 1, 2020.*  The other four projections are through November 1, 2020,  Georgia  has the highest projected death rate 2708 per million.  Projections rose by major proportions for Massachusetts, Arizona, District of Columbia, California, Illinois, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and North Dakota.  Decreases for Missouri, Kansas, Virginia and Wisconsin.

The August 21 projections are available from:  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

                         July 7----July 14-----JULY 22------July 30—August 6*—August 21*—August 27*

United States  208,255,  224,546, 219,864,  230,822,  295,011,  309,918; NOW 317,312   Population 331.00 million  629.17 per million 678.39 per million, 664.24 per million, 697.35 per million, 891.17 per million, 936.3 per million, NOW 958.65 per million

Georgia  3,857  deaths; 4736;  7336; 10,278, 11,288,  10.805, NOW 12,410 Population 3.99 million   966.67 per million ; 1186 .97 per million;1838.60 per million; 2575.94 per million; 2829.07 per million; 2708.02 per million;  NOW 2110.28 per million

Massachusetts  12,906 deaths; 10,121 deaths ; 9970;   9647;  10,314;  12.295, NOW 12,410   Population 6.7 million  1926.27 per million 1510.60 per million; 1488.06 per million;  1439.85 per million; 1539.40 per million; 1835.07 per million; NOW 1852.24 per million

New York  32,221 deaths; 35,379; 35,039; 34,423;  33,945; 32,743, NOW 33,960  Population 18.8 million  1713.88 per million; 1881.86 per million; 1863.78 per million; 1836.33 per million;  1805.59 per million; 1741.65 per million; NOW 1806.38 per million

Louisiana   4,643 deaths; 5,167; 4955; 6401; 7901; 7840; NOW 7993  Population 4.6 million  1009.35  per million; 1123.26 per million; 1077.17 per million; 1391.52 per million;1717.61 per million; 1704.35 per million; NOW 1737.61 per million

California 16,827 deaths;  21,264; 19,572;  16,515;  32,692; 41,110; NOW 37,645   Population 39.78 million  423.00 per million;  534.54 per million;492.01 per million;  415.16 per million; 821.82 per million; 1033.43 per million; NOW 1497.52 per million

District of Columbia  666 deaths; 681 ; 694 ;  646; 605; 837; NOW 935 Population  .706 million  943.34 per million; 964.59 per million; 983.00 per million; 915.01 per million;  856.94 per million; 1185.55 per million; NOW 1324.36 per million

Connecticut  4,692  deaths; 4,456;  4750;  4844;  5179;  4675; NOW 4626 deaths  Population  3.7 million   1268.11 per million; 1204.32 per million;1283.78 per million;  1309.19 per million; 1399.73 per million; 1263.52 per million; NOW  1250.27 per million

Illinois  8,907 deaths; 8,351;  8472 ;  8280;  9995; 11,071, NOW 15,058 Population 12.63 million  705.23 per million; 657.56 per million; 772.43 per million;  655.58 per million;  791.37 per million;  876.56 per million, NOW 1192.24 per million

Pennsylvania  9,999 deaths; 8,431; 8028;  8350; 8859; 14,998; 14,604; NOW 14,604   Population 12.7 million  787.32 per million; 663.86 per million; 632.13 per million;657.48 per million;  697.56 per million; NOW 1180.94 per million;

Florida   17,477 deaths;19,285; 18,154,  16,318; 19,358; 21,174; NOW 24,532   Population 21.47 million  814.01 per million; 893.23 per million; 845.55 per million; 760.04 per million; 901.63 per million;  986.21 per million; NOW 1142.63 per million

South Carolina 242 deaths; 4,556; 3186;  3232; 3672;  4724; NOW 5023   Population 5.0 million  48.4 per million; 911.20 per million;  637.2 per million;646.4 per million; 734.40 per million; 944.8 per million; NOW 1004.60 per million

Arizona  5,553 deaths; 5,177;  5664;7946;  6840; 9562; NOW 7148;    Population 7.29 million  761.73 per million ;710.15 per million;  776.95 per million: 1089.97 per million; 938.27 per million.; 1311.66 per million; NOW 980.52 per million;

Iowa  841 deaths;  1,225; 1813,1700; 2163  2856; NOW 3077  Population 3.17 million  265.30 per million; 386.44 per million; 571.93 per million;  536.28 per million;  682.34 per million;  900.95 per million; NOW 970.66 per million

Texas    13,450 deaths;18,675;  18,812; 24,557; 27,435; 25.532; NOW 27,194    Population 29.90 million  449.83 per million; 624.58 per million; 629.16 per million; 921.30 per million; 917.56 per million;  853.91 per million; NOW 909.50 per million

Missouri  5436 deaths; 3068; NOW 5231 Population 6.137 million; 885.77 per million; 499.92 per million, NOW 852.37 per million

Arkansas 724 deaths;  617, 895; 833; 2234;  2364; NOW 2406    Population 3.018 million  239.89 per million 204.44 per million; 293.55 per million;   276.01 per million ; 740.23 per million; 783.30 per million; NOW 797.22 per million

Oklahoma  587  deaths;1,029 ; 1533; 1484;   2967, 2058; NOW 3055 Population 4.0 million  146.75 per million 257.23 per million; 383.25 per million; 371.24 per million; 741.75 per million; 514.5 per million; NOW  763.75 per million

Maryland  3,880 deaths ; 4,278;  4194;  4026; 5174;  5301; NOW 4404 Population 6.0 million  646.67  per million; 713.00 per million; 699.0 per million;  671.0 per million;  862.34 per million; 883.5 per million; NOW 734 per million

Ohio  5,712  deaths;4,545;  3900;  5694; 9041;  6046; NOW 7564  Population 11.73 million  486.96 per million; 387.47 per million; 332.48 per million; 485.42 per million; 770.76 per million; 515.43 per million; NOW 644.84 per million

North Dakota 215 deaths; 371; NOW 491  Population .762 million 282.15 per million;486.88 per million; NOW 644.36 per million

Washington  2,510 deaths; 3,170; 3303; 2178; 5078; 5040; NOW 4410  Population 7.17 million  325.98 per million ;442.112 per million; 450.67 per million;  303.77 per million; 708.23 per million;  702.93 per million; NOW 615.06 per million

Oregon  471 deaths; 605;  683;  634; 2967;  2408; NOW 2395    Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million; 147.44 per million; 690.0 per million; 560.0 per million; NOW 556.98 per million

Colorado  1937 deaths;  2,032; 2774:  2665; 5179;  2967; NOW 2395  Population 5.8 million  333.97 per million; 478.28 per million; NOW 459.48 per million; 892.93 per million’ 511.55 per million; NOW 412.93 per million

Wisconsin  1,410 deaths;  992; 1041; 2030; 3708 ;1775; NOW 2340 Population 5.82 million  242,27 per million 170.45 per million; 178.87 per million; 348.80 per million;  637.11 per million ; 304.98 per million; NOW 402.06 per million

Kansas 632 deaths ; 410;  412; 588; 2245; 1277; NOW 994  Population  2.77 million  228.16 per million 148.01 per million; 148.74 per million;  212.27 per million;  810.47 per million; 461.01 per million; NOW 358.84 per million

Virginia 5,190 deaths ;  4,881;  2643; 2289;  5842; 2828; NOW 2940   Population 8.63 million  601.39  per million ;565.59 per million; 306.26 per million:  265.24 per million; 676.94 per million;  327.69 per million; NOW 340.67 per million

South Dakota 254 deaths; 281; NOW 291  Population .885 million 287.01 per million;317.51 per million; NOW 328.81 per million

Idaho  120 deaths; 559; 513; 365;  916, 983: NOW 1373 Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million;147.44 per million;  213.02 per million; 228.60 per million; NOW 319.30 per million

DEATHS

How many overall deaths will there be?

Our model is updated to account for new data and information, and the estimates may change as a result. For the latest estimate, visit our COVID-19 projections tool.

Why do your results show a wide range in the forecast for deaths?

Larger uncertainty intervals – or the range within which estimated deaths are likely to fall – can occur because of limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data. A smaller range generally reflects extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources.

Why did the estimates for my location change?

To learn more, please visit our update page.

Why is the peak for daily deaths still forecast in the future when it looks like it has already occurred in my location?

The date of peak daily deaths depends on the model’s projections. If the model projects that the number of daily deaths will continue to rise, then the peak will be projected for a future date. It is important to note that the data on daily deaths may fluctuate dramatically due to irregularities in reporting. Health care workers are extremely busy caring for COVID-19 patients, so they may fall behind on reporting deaths. Once health care workers catch up on their reporting, however, it may appear as though there has been a spike in daily deaths.

Why are the “observed deaths” shown in your results for my location different from what is shown on the government’s official page?

For deaths, we primarily use the COVID-19 death data aggregated by the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository (see "Where does IHME obtain its data?"). The JHU repository uses Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), which means new days start at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The JHU counts may differ slightly from local government data as a result of these timing differences. Also, the JHU repository is not necessarily synchronized to the update schedule of every location, so there may be a short lag that is reflected in a difference between our recorded daily deaths in a given location and those ultimately reported on government websites. Although this will be corrected when we update our analysis, in some cases, these differences may persist for several days.

Yet another reason why observed deaths may differ from numbers reported by governments is due to data processing. To address irregularities in the daily death data, we average data from the last three days to create a smooth version. To see the death data exactly as it is reported, 1) click the “Chart settings” icon in the upper right corner of the chart, and 2) turn off “Smoothed data.”

There are reports of deaths being under-reported in places. How does this impact your forecast?

We are learning that not all deaths due to COVID-19 that occur at home or in nursing homes have been attributed to COVID-19. As awareness increases, the number of reported deaths is growing, with some locations now reporting presumptive COVID-19 deaths. Another challenge is that COVID-19 death data fluctuate substantially each day, with some locations reporting more deaths on Tuesdays than on Sundays and Mondays. We believe this variation is due to data reporting practices instead of actual death patterns. To mitigate the impact of inconsistent reporting on our forecasts, our published predictions are based on averaging multiple iterations of projections. As new data emerges, we incorporate it into our model, and our projections will shift up or down in response to the data. To learn more, see our estimation updates.

For Ecuador and Peru in particular, the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 appears to be improbably low. Instead of using reported COVID-19 deaths for these countries, we are approximating deaths from COVID-19. To approximate COVID-19 deaths, we used the number of excess deaths occurring in Ecuador and Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic and observations from other countries where we had weekly reports of total deaths and high-quality data on COVID-19 deaths.

August 28: Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Report

COVID-19

Updates on the emerging novel coronavirus pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

The Center for Health Security is analyzing and providing updates on the COVID-19 pandemic. If you would like to receive these updates, please subscribe below and select COVID-19. Additional resources are also available on our website.

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The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security also produces US Travel Industry and Retail Supply Chain Updates that provide a summary of major issues and events impacting the US travel industry and retail supply chain. You can access them here.

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 24.30 million cases (281,581 new) and 827,730 deaths (6,261 new) as of 10:30am EDT on August 26. The average global mortality has decreased from a peak of more than 6,300 new deaths per day on August 14 to 5,425 deaths per day now. If the global average remains greater than 5,000 deaths per day, the cumulative global mortality could reach 1 million deaths by the end of September.

Overall, the global daily COVID-19 mortality appears to be starting to decline, following a peak around mid-August. Asia is currently exhibiting the most notable increase in COVID-19 mortality, and South America appears to have reached a plateau. Since coming down from its first peak early in the pandemic, Europe has exhibited a very slow increase in mortality, up to 325 deaths per day from a low of 270 in late July. Mortality in Africa and North America peaked in mid-August and has declined steadily since then. Over the past 2 weeks, it appears that most countries are reporting decreasing COVID-19 mortality, an encouraging sign; however, numerous countries reported increases greater than 100% over that period. They are largely distributed around the world, but there is a noticeable concentration in Europe.

In total, there are 10 countries averaging more than 100 daily deaths. Brazil, India, and the US are all reporting essentially equal daily mortality, approximately 900-950 daily deaths. Mexico is reporting slightly more than half of that total, at 498 daily deaths, and Colombia is reporting 326 daily deaths. The remaining 5 countries are reporting fewer than 250 daily deaths. The Central and South America region represents 5 of the top 10 countries in terms of total daily mortality. In terms of per capita daily mortality, 10 countries are averaging 3 or more daily deaths per million population. Of these countries, 8 are from Central or South America. Also in the Americas, the Bahamas is #1 after jumping from just 1 daily death per million population to 10 in only 11 days, and the US falls just outside the top 10 (#12).

UNITED STATES

The US CDC removed its previous COVID-19 reporting page and transitioned to its COVID Data Tracker dashboard. The dashboard provides links to a variety of data, including incidence and mortality, laboratory testing, community impact (eg, mobility), and high-risk populations (eg, healthcare workers, incarcerated populations). Some of the data is available at the state and county level directly through the dashboard. The dashboard added a 7-day moving average for daily deaths, and it once again reports COVID-19 data from New York City and New York state separately.

The CDC reported 5.80 million total cases (46,393 new) and 178,998 deaths (1,239 new). In total, 19 states (no change) are reporting more than 100,000 cases, including California and Florida with more than 600,000 cases; Texas with more than 500,000; New York with more than 400,000; and Georgia and Illinois with more than 200,000. We expect Arizona to surpass 200,000 total cases in the coming days. Notably, the US fell out of the global top 10 in terms of per capita daily incidence.

Several US territories continue to report extremely high per capita daily incidence. Guam is reporting 446 new daily cases per million population, which would be #1 globally—more than 75% greater than the Maldives, the actual #1. It previously appeared as though much of Guam’s increased incidence was due to a large spike of 105 new cases reported on August 21; however, Guam has reported more than 50 new cases on 6 of the 7 days since then, including a new record high of 136 new cases on August 27. The US Virgin Islands is reporting 282 new daily cases per million population, which would also be #1 globally. Puerto Rico’s daily incidence has decreased over the past week or two, but it is still reporting 162 new daily cases per million population. This would put it at #10 globally, falling between Costa Rica and Spain.

The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard reported 5.88 million US cases and 181,092 deaths as of 12:30pm EDT on August 28.

SOUTH KOREA South Korea continues to report a resurgence of COVID-19, and it has experienced a range of disruptions and operational changes as a result of the increased transmission or response activities. The surge in incidence drove the Ministry of Health and Welfare to increase social distancing restrictions nationwide to Step 2 for a period of 2 weeks. On Thursday, proceedings of South Korea’s National Assembly were suspended in order to disinfect the building after a journalist tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, the South Korean government ordered most schools in and around Seoul to close and transition classes online earlier this week. All students in the affected cities and provinces, with the exception of high school seniors, will participate in online classes through at least September 11. After delays and disruptions earlier in the year, South Korean schools reopened in late May and early June.

Earlier this week, physicians across the country, including in Seoul, engaged in a 3-day strike organized by the Korean Medical Association. The walkout of thousands of doctors, primarily interns and resident doctors at hospitals, stems from their disapproval of recent government decisions to increase the number of medical students admitted to medical schools in the future and to open a new public medical school for the purpose of expanding access to healthcare services nationally. The government also aims to expand insurance coverage to more traditional medicines and practices and increase the availability of telemedicine. The doctors reportedly disapprove of these plans because they believe they would unfairly increase competition in an already-crowded job market. They argue that the funding for these efforts would be better spent to increase salaries for trainees, which could enable them to move to rural areas that are experiencing a shortage of doctors. The strike has led to disruptions in hospital operations, leading facilities to reduce operating hours, cancel appointments, and delay procedures. South Korean Minister of Health Dr. Park Neung-hoo ordered protesting doctors to return to work, threatening those who do not comply with the possibility of suspending or revoking their licenses, fines of up to US$25,000, or up to 3 years in prison. To date, the government does not appear to have taken punitive action against striking doctors.

EUROPEAN SCHOOLS Like most of the rest of the world, European countries have been debating whether to reopen schools and how to best protect students and teachers. Public Health England conducted enhanced surveillance among schools that reopened between June 1-July 31 in order to provide better information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk in school settings. While approximately 80% of schools remained open in some capacity during the UK lockdown to support certain priority groups (eg, children of healthcare workers), the vast majority of children did not attend in-person classes. In June, the number of students attending schools increased from 475,000 to more than 1.6 million. The researchers identified 198 total COVID-19 cases over the study period, including 121 linked to 30 different outbreaks and 67 individual cases (ie, not linked to transmission in schools). An additional 10 cases were reported as "co-primary" cases, which were detected at the same time and had a common epidemiological link (eg, to a parent). Of these cases, 70 were students, and 128 were staff members. The study found a strong correlation between COVID-19 incidence in the region and the number of outbreaks in schools. The authors concluded that schools were associated with relatively few COVID-19 outbreaks after the easing of the lockdown, and the outbreaks that did occur were more likely to involve staff members. As a result of the correlation between school-based outbreaks and community transmission, the researchers emphasized the importance of community-based risk mitigation measures (eg, mask use, physical and social distancing). While the study provides evidence that schools do not drive transmission, Dr. Shamez Ladhani, one of the study’s authors, noted that the results reflect only data that were gathered right after the lockdown ended. Class sizes were very small at the time, and school-based transmission principally affected adult staff.

While it is possible that schools are not major drivers of transmission, Dr. Hans Kluge, the WHO Regional Director for Europe, stated that there is increasing evidence of children infecting others at social gatherings and that incidence among young people is increasing. The WHO recently advised that children 12 years and older should wear a mask under the same conditions as adults in order to mitigate transmission risk. As winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere, there are concerns that increased close contact between children and more vulnerable older adults could lead to a rise in incidence and deaths.

In Germany, schools are beginning to reopen, with the majority of students returning for in-person classes. To mitigate transmission risk, German schools are reportedly focusing on improved ventilation and cohorting students (ie, keeping classes separate). The decision to bring all students back at once hinged partly on the number of available teachers, which did not support efforts to split students into smaller groups. Interestingly, masks are required on most school grounds in Germany, but not necessarily in classrooms in order to help students concentrate.

KENYA On Wednesday, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta announced that Kenya is extending its current social distancing restrictions for 30 days. Kenya’s COVID-19 epidemic peaked in early August, at approximately 675 new cases per day, and it is now less than half of that (286 new cases per day) and still decreasing. In early July, despite several months of steadily increasing daily incidence, Kenya relaxed a number of social distancing measures in order to enable its economy to recover. Three (3) weeks later, however, President Kenyatta was forced to re-institute more restrictive measures to combat Kenya’s rapidly growing epidemic. He urged Kenyans to be vigilant in complying with the recommended actions, noting that they must all hold themselves and others accountable. The effort was successful in turning the tide against the COVID-19 epidemic, and in his most recent address, President Kenyatta applauded Kenyans’ efforts. He also continued to emphasize their personal responsibility and duty to protect others, “a happy debt to pay [their] fellow citizens.” While Kenya made considerable progress since the measures were implemented a month ago, he noted that much uncertainty remains about the future trajectory of the epidemic, encouraging Kenyans not to be complacent.

While some restrictions will remain intact, such as the nationwide 9pm-4am curfew, others will be relaxed to some degree. Bars and nightclubs will remain closed, but hotels will be permitted to serve alcohol. Additionally, the Ministry of Health will coordinate with bar owners to develop “self-regulating mechanisms” over the next 30 days with the aim of allowing them to resume operations. Restaurant hours of operation will still be restricted, but they will be permitted to extend closing by 1 hour, from 7pm to 8pm. Additionally, the limit on the attendance at weddings and funerals will increase to 100 people, and the Ministries of Health and Sports, Culture, and Heritage are expected to issue guidance for resuming sporting events.

WILD POLIO ELIMINATION IN AFRICA Earlier this week, the WHO announced that wild-type polio viruses have been eliminated from the continent of Africa, a major step toward eradication. Polio eradication programs, including vaccination campaigns, were suspended early in the COVID-19 pandemic due to concerns that the programs would not be able to continue in-person, door-to-door efforts safely in the midst of the pandemic, particularly that these efforts could inadvertently spread COVID-19 in vulnerable communities. Experts warned that scaling back eradication activities would inevitably result in polio outbreaks that could have lasting negative effects on eradication efforts. Polio vaccination programs began to resume in July, initially limited to outbreak response before expanding to include preventive campaigns.

In addition to contributing toward eradication, lessons and capacities from polio have been critical to the COVID-19 response in Africa. Over its history, polio eradication efforts have incorporated a myriad of other healthcare and public health benefits—including mosquito nets, vitamin A, and other vaccinations—and this approach is now being applied to the COVID-19 response. Additionally, it is critical to establish trusted relationships with local leaders, which helps establish inroads with affected communities, implement culturally appropriate interventions, and build public confidence in the response efforts, including contact tracing and vaccination. The laboratory network and infrastructure established for polio is also being utilized for COVID-19. The network includes 16 laboratories across 15 countries in Africa, and 50% of its capacity has been transitioned to support SARS-CoV-2 testing. Leveraging existing capacity and expertise, such as through polio eradication efforts, is critical to making efficient use of available resources.

CHINA SCHOOLS REOPENING China is expected to fully reopen schools next week. China has already opened schools for 75% of students, and this move will ultimately enable all students to resume in-person classes. China’s school systems include nearly 300 million teachers and students nationwide. According to China’s Ministry of Education, no cases of COVID-19 have been detected at schools during the initial phases of resuming in-person classes, through the point of reaching 75% capacity. The Ministry of Education emphasized that conditions at schools across the country may vary and that schools cannot take a “one size fits all” approach to implementing appropriate COVID-19 protective measures. It also emphasizes the importance of local control of COVID-19 transmission, much like the US CDC emphasizes the need to account for risks associated with local community transmission as students resume in-person classes. Colleges and universities have been directed to strictly control access to campus, including checking identification for students and teachers and limiting visitors, in order to mitigate the risk of introducing SARS-CoV-2. While all schools will reportedly be open, it may still take time for all students to resume in-person classes. According to information published by the Ministry of Education, schools will phase in their students, and provincial plans could take as long as 37 days to reach 100% capacity. Including colleges and universities, the phase-in period is scheduled to continue into mid-October.

RAPID ANTIGEN TEST EUA The US FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for a rapid antigen test developed by Abbott Laboratories that can return results in approximately 15 minutes. The test uses widely available testing equipment, as opposed to proprietary reagents or machines, and it can be performed on site at the point of care. A press release from Abbott indicates that the test has demonstrated reasonably high sensitivity (97.1%) and specificity (98.5%). Antigen tests detect the presence of viral particles, including specific proteins, whereas traditional PCR tests detect the presence of viral RNA. Antigen tests can be performed more quickly than PCR tests, but they tend to be less accurate. The test is projected to cost US$5 each, which could help make it more widely available, and it will have an accompanying smartphone application that will enable individuals to present documentation of recent negative tests. The US government finalized an agreement to purchase 150 million tests, at a cost of US$750 million. Widespread distribution of these tests would substantially increase national testing capacity, and rapid, on-site testing capability would dramatically decrease the delays in processing tests and return results that continue to plague PCR-based diagnostic tests.

The test has been described by some, including US Assistant Secretary for Health Admiral Brett Giroir, as a “game changer”; however, there are some notable limitations that should be considered as well. The ability to use widely available testing equipment expands the number of laboratories that could perform the test, but the test still requires a laboratory and trained personnel to conduct it, as well as a nasopharyngeal swab to obtain the specimen. It is not a test that individuals can take at home. Additionally, the US$5 cost pertains only to the test, and the cost of personnel time and laboratory testing supplies and equipment will likely increase the overall cost. The test is also limited to symptomatic individuals, and as we have covered previously, asymptomatic or presymptomatic transmission is a major driver of the COVID-19 pandemic. A number of other relatively inexpensive, rapid antigen tests are currently in development, including some that are designed for home use.

**While this is largely a US issue, we are continuing to cover emerging information regarding recent US CDC changes to SARS-CoV-2 testing guidance.**

US CDC TESTING GUIDANCE Multiple reports indicate that the changes to the US CDC’s SARS-CoV-2 testing guidance—in particular, that asymptomatic individuals “do not necessarily need a test,” even if they have known exposure to a COVID-19 case—were directed by senior US government leadership outside the CDC. The changes were reportedly made under pressure by senior officials at the Department of Health and Human Services and the White House coronavirus task force. Notably, several reports also indicate that Dr. Anthony Fauci was undergoing surgery at the time of these discussions and did not sign off on the changes. This conflicts directly with statements made by Admiral Brett Giroir, the Assistant Secretary for Health and the “coronavirus testing czar,” who stated that “all the doc[tors] signed off” on the new guidance and that the updates represent an “absolute consensus” by the US government’s top experts.

Multiple experts have commented that these reports raise serious concerns that the changes may have been made on the basis of political pressure rather than available scientific evidence. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he would like to see reduced testing in order to decrease the reported COVID-19 incidence, which would likely have serious negative effects on the US response. Late Wednesday evening, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield issued a statement in support of the new guidance. In his statement, Dr. Redfield noted that “testing is meant to drive actions and achieve specific public health objectives”; however, it is unclear how health officials could effectively conduct actions such as contact tracing and notifying individuals who were exposed to asymptomatic infections if no testing is conducted.

August 27: XXXX New COVID-19 Cases in Illinois

Thursday, August 27, 2020

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Unemployment up, jobs down in all 14 metro areas

By PETER HANCOCK
Capitol News Illinois
phancock@capitolnewsillinois.com

SPRINGFIELD — The Illinois Department of Public Health reported 1,707 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 24 additional virus-related deaths on Thursday as the statewide death toll from the disease reached 7,977.

Meanwhile, COVID-19’s economic impact continued to be felt throughout Illinois, where local July unemployment rates ranged from 7.9 to 13.8 percent, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security.

IDPH said laboratories had processed 44,510 COVID-19 tests since Wednesday, which made for a single-day positivity rate of 3.8 percent. The rolling statewide average positivity rate for the seven-day period from Aug. 20-26 stood at 4.1 percent.

Virus-related deaths were reported in 11 of the state’s 102 counties. The victims ranged in age from a St. Clair County woman in her 50s to a LaSalle County woman over age 100.

As of late Wednesday night, 1,631 people in Illinois were being hospitalized with COVID-19, including 390 patients in intensive care units. Of the ICU patients, 151 were on ventilators.

The overall hospital bed usage was at its highest point since July 1, and ICU bed usage was as high as it’s been since June 29. Ventilator use was at its highest point since July 28.

Last week, IDPH imposed stricter social and economic restrictions in the Metro East region around St. Louis. According to the first U.S. Department of Labor unemployment report since those restrictions took effect, 25,333 people filed first-time unemployment claims in Illinois during the week that ended Saturday, Aug. 22 — an increase of 2,927 from the week before. But the number of people receiving continuing jobless benefits dropped by more than 11,000, to 593,152.

This week, IDPH imposed even stricter mitigation efforts in Will and Kankakee counties, including the closing of bars and restaurants to indoor service. State officials have also indicated they are likely to tighten the restrictions in the Metro East area if infection rates there do not decrease.

As of Monday, Aug. 24, the seven-day rolling average COVID-19 test positivity rate in Region 4 stood at 10 percent and had been climbing for six of the past 10 days. The rate in Will and Kankakee counties stood at 8.3 percent, just above the 8-percent threshold that triggers stronger mitigation efforts.

The state also reported regional July unemployment rates for the 14 metropolitan areas in Illinois. The Rockford area had the highest rate, at 13.8 percent — an increase of 7.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The Champaign-Urbana region had the lowest, at 7.9 percent, which is up only 3.7 points from July 2019.

Other regional jobless rates included Bloomington, at 8 percent; Lake County and Kenosha County, Wisc., at 8.9 percent; Davenport-Moline-Rock Island at 9.1 percent; Springfield at 9.1 percent; Carbondale-Marion at 9.2 percent; the Metro East area at 9.4 percent; Kankakee at 9.5 percent; Danville at 9.9 percent; Elgin at 10.3 percent; Peoria at 10.6 percent; Decatur at 12 percent; and Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights at 12.6 percent.

The statewide jobless rate in Illinois was 11.3 percent in July, up from 4.2 percent a year earlier.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government and distributed to more than 400 newspapers statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.