Monday, November 14, 2016

Clinton's Popular-Vote Lead Will Grow, and Grow, and Grow

 

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Millions of mail-in and absentee ballots haven’t been counted yet. They won’t change anything, though.

 

  • Nov 13, 201

Andrew McGill

Updated on November 13 at 4:22 p.m. ET

This chart has been making the rounds on Twitter these past few days:

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Donald Trump didn’t actually flip many Democrats, the thinking goes. Instead, Hillary Clinton failed to turn out liberal voters who had previously voted for Barack Obama. It’s a tempting narrative for smarting progressives, as it maintains status quo thinking—Clinton’s unlikable!and removes any culpability on the part of the Democrats for missing a massive shift in the electorate. In other words, it’s Clinton’s fault, not theirs, that Trump won the presidency.

Unfortunately, that graph is missing something important. (And not just a properly scaled y-axis.) The numbers that came out on Election Night were enough to secure Trump the presidency, but they weren’t complete. State officials are still counting millions of provisional and absentee ballots, and within two weeks, Clinton will likely have another few million votes in the bank.

 

Most were cast in the Clinton-leaning states of California, Washington, and New York—not swing states—so they won’t change the Electoral College. But there’s a sufficient amount to put her within striking distance of Obama’s 2012 turnout, and help put an end to the argument that she simply didn’t work hard enough.

“We probably have about 7 million votes left to count,” said David Wasserman, an editor at Cook Political Report who is tracking turnout. “A majority of them are on the coasts, in New York, California, and Washington. She should be able to win those votes, probably 2-1.” By mid-December, when the Electoral College officially casts its ballots, Wasserman estimates that Clinton could be ahead by 2 percentage points in the popular vote.

What’s with the delay? Several states, notably California and Washington, have liberal absentee and mail-in voting laws. California, for instance, allows residents to submit ballots up to three days late (although they must be postmarked on or before Election Day). These provisions have made alternative voting pretty popular, and the ballots a bit harder to count. California alone has more than 4 million votes pending; Washington is waiting on another 700,000.

This has happened before. David Leip is the one-man band behind The Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, a website cataloging vote totals all the way back to the early days of the Republic. He remembers seeing much of the same vote-counting hysteria after Election Day in 2012, when it appeared Obama would fall far short of his 2008 total. “They did the same thing—‘Oh my goodness, look at all those missing votes,’” he said. From the numbers he’s seeing, California is due for a record turnout, and possibly other states are as well. It’s too soon to tell, he cautions, if Clinton’s total haul, which sat at 61.3 million as of the afternoon of November 13, will match or surpass the 66 million votes Obama received in 2012.

But let’s be clear: While these uncounted votes may grow Clinton’s popular lead, they absolutely will not change the course of the election. That math is settled; Trump holds an insurmountable lead in swing states, which turned his popular defeat into a sizable electoral victory. All the votes in liberal-leaning New York and California will not change that.

However, these ballots will knock the legs out beneath the argument that Clinton failed to mobilize Democrats. Yes, she’s no Obama in 2008. (Neither was Obama in 2012.) But county-by-county results indicate Democratic voters flipped for Trump, not that they stayed home. “We just saw massive shifts in the industrial midwest from ’12 to ’16, and those are the same voters,” Wasserman said. This is the conclusion Democrats must face, and in the absence of other data, it’s the one they’ll have to live with

Above is from:  http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/clintons-popular-vote-lead-will-grow-and-grow/507455/

Defying Trump, Chicago will continue as immigrant sanctuary

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By Natasha Korecki

11/13/16 10:08 PM EST

 

CHICAGO — Joining other cities around the country, Chicago is pledging to remain a sanctuary city for undocumented immigrants, an act of defiance in the face of Donald Trump’s past promise to cut off those cities from federal funding.

In sanctuary cities, local law enforcement officials aren’t required to alert U.S. Immigration and Customs authorities about the immigration status of individuals with whom they come in contact.

On Monday, Chicago's elected officials, including Mayor Rahm Emanuel, are expected to hold a news conference to formally discuss how the city will retain its sanctuary status. Aldermen are expected to call on Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner to pressure Trump to back off his vow to interfere with funding.

“Across the country and in Chicago and Illinois ... young men and women [are] very distraught about this,” Chicago Alderman Danny Solis told POLITICO Illinois on Sunday.

Solis is among those planning to attend the news conference with Emanuel. "There’s some people, though I disagree with them, but I have some respect for — Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus," Solis said, referring to the House speaker and the RNC chairman who will serve as Trump's chief of staff. "I’m hoping that those guys have much more influence on Trump and what needs to be done not only on his first 100 days, but in his term."

Illinois Comptroller-elect Susana Mendoza, whose parents are Mexican immigrants, called on Rauner to take a stand on the issue.

“As a leader of this state, the governor, and everyone in a leadership position, should be saying it’s wrong,” Mendoza told POLITICO Illinois on Sunday. “I would expect that the governor would say, ‘that’s ridiculous.’ Besides moral bankruptcy, it’s bad fiscal policy for the city or any city.”

Above is from:  http://www.politico.com/states/illinois/story/2016/11/defying-trump-major-cities-vow-to-remain-immigrant-sanctuaries-107313

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Kate MatherKate MatherContact Reporter

Los Angeles Police Chief Charlie Beck said Monday that he has no plans to change the LAPD’s stance on immigration enforcement, despite President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to toughen federal immigration laws and deport millions of people upon taking office.

For decades, the LAPD has distanced itself from federal immigration policies. The LAPD prohibits officers from initiating contact with someone solely to determine whether he or she is in the country legally, mandated by a special order signed by then-chief Daryl Gates in 1979. During Beck’s tenure as chief, the department stopped turning over people arrested for low-level crimes to federal agents for deportation and moved away from honoring federal requests to detain inmates who might be deportable past their jail terms.

On Monday, Beck said he planned to maintain the long-standing separation.

“I don’t intend on doing anything different,” he said. “We are not going to engage in law enforcement activities solely based on somebody’s immigration status. We are not going to work in conjunction with Homeland Security on deportation efforts. That is not our job, nor will I make it our job.”

Fear among immigrants and their families has rippled across the country in the days following Trump’s election to the presidency. Trump made illegal immigration a central issue of his campaign, vowing to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, deport people who are in the country illegally and unwind immigration relief created under President Obama.

In Los Angeles, officials have tried to alleviate some of those concerns by signaling their support for the city’s immigrant residents. At a meeting Friday at the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles, Mayor Eric Garcetti said the city would question Trump’s decisions on immigration.

More than 1 million of the estimated 11 million immigrants in the country without legal status live in Los Angeles County, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

“If the first day, as president, we see something that is hostile to our people, hostile to our city, bad for our economy, bad for our security, we will speak up, speak out, act up and act out,” Garcetti said.

The mayor also said that the LAPD would continue to enforce Special Order 40, the Gates-signed directive that bars officers from contacting someone solely to determine their immigration status.

“Our law enforcement officers and LAPD don’t go around asking people for their papers, nor should they,” he said. “That’s not the role of local law enforcement.”

Capt. Jeff Scroggin, a spokesman for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, said it is too soon to say how sheriff’s officials would react to any changes required by the Trump administration. Those changes could be tied to federal funding, he noted.

In the meantime, he said, sheriff’s deputies who patrol the county will continue their longstanding practice of treating all residents the same, regardless of background.

“We just want people to come forward so we have a better community. It doesn’t matter whether they’re an immigrant or going through the process of citizenship,” Scroggin said. “Whatever it is, we want to hear from them. We don’t want them to not cooperate. It’s important to keep the community safe. We never ask about immigration status.”

In the county jails, the Sheriff’s Department recently scaled back its cooperation with federal immigration agents. Previously, under a program called 287(g), federal agents were stationed in the jails, and jail deputies helped them to identify potentially deportable inmates.

Since September 2015, deputies have still been referring some inmates to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, but only those convicted of serious crimes, such as burglary, assault, sexual abuse or felony drunk driving.

Beck said his command staff has also been meeting with community leaders to hear their concerns about immigration enforcement.

“This is the same LAPD you had Monday, a week ago. We have not changed because of the election on Tuesday. We have the same principles. We have the same values,” he said. “This is not going to change the way that the Los Angeles Police Department enforces the law.”

Above is from:  http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-los-angeles-police-immigration-20161114-story.html

Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner releases tax returns - KMOV.com

 

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Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner releases tax returns

Posted: Nov 11, 2016 8:25 PM CST Updated: Nov 11, 2016 9:22 PM CST

By Matt Sczesny, Reporter

Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (AP Images) Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (AP Images)

Springfield, Ill. (KMOV.com) -

(KMOV.com) - Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner released his 2015 tax returns showing he reported income of $188 million.

The Republican also paid over $50 million in federal and state taxes. Most of Rauner's income came from his investments, totaling $169 million.

This year the governor pumped in over $30 million of his own money into supporting Republican candidates in Illinois and even the gubernatorial race in Missouri.

Rauner only released two page federal and state returns and did not disclose any schedules or attached forms that would have revealed more information about his finances.

Above is from:  http://www.kmov.com/story/33691482/gov-rauner-releases-tax-returns

 

 

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Gov. Bruce Rauner and his wife have reported more than $170 million in income for 2015.

The Rauners had a taxable federal income of $176.7 million and paid more than $50 million in state and federal taxes on that income. They had a state taxable income of $188.2 million and paid a total effective tax rate on income of more than 26 percent.

In a news release, Rauner announced his family’s philanthropic foundation made contributions of more than $11.6 million.

Rauner personally donated more than $30 million to state elections this year, including a $1 million donation to a group supporting Republican candidate for Comptroller Leslie Munger in late October. He also donated $9 million to a campaign group for Illinois Rep. James Durkin (R-Western Springs). Durkin is the House Republican leader.

In 2015, Rauner reported a $58 million dollar income for 2014. Since becoming governor, he has not had control over his business’ investments, which are set up in a blind trust. Rauner ran an investment fund before running for governor.

At an event on Friday, Rauner said maybe not having control over his investments had been a good thing.

Above is from:  https://dailynorthwestern.com/2016/11/13/city/gov-bruce-rauner-reports-more-than-170-million-in-income-for-2015/