ISW: June 15 Ukraine War

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JUNE 15

Jun 15, 2022 - Press ISW

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15

Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and Grace Mappes

June 15, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15. US President Joe Biden pledged $1 billion worth of military aid, including coastal defense weapons, advanced rocket systems, artillery, and ammunition to support Ukrainian operations.[1] NATO members additionally announced they will additionally continue to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons and long-range systems and plan to agree on a new assistance package after consultations with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.[2] This newest round of military aid will be invaluable to support Ukrainian operations, especially in the face of increasingly protracted and artillery-heavy fighting against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, though Ukraine will require further sustained support.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched ground assaults in Severodonetsk and settlements in its vicinity but have not taken full control over the city as of June 15.
• Russian forces launched largely unsuccessful offensive operations around the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in an effort to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued efforts to advance along the E40 highway to Slovyansk and southeast of Izyum.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to fight in northeastern settlements around Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, while undertaking defensive measures to strengthen Russian presence in the Black Sea.
• The Kremlin and proxy republics continue to pursue ad hoc annexation policies in occupied territories.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
• Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City;
• Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
• Activities in Russian-occupied Areas

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground assaults in and around Severodonetsk but have not yet captured the Azot industrial plant or taken full control of the city as of June 15.[3] Russian forces have largely isolated Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk from their lines of communication and are attacking Severodonetsk from multiple directions.[4] Russian troops also conducted an unsuccessful assault in Toshkivka, likely to drive northwards towards Lysychansk instead of conducting an opposed river crossing after having destroyed bridge access to Lysychansk from Severodonetsk.[5] Russian forces continued to fire on settlements surrounding Severodonetsk to further isolate Ukrainian troops and complicate their withdrawal or re-supply efforts.[6]

Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and made incremental gains on June 15.[7] A Russian Telegram channel claimed that Russian forces captured Dolyna, about 20 kilometers northwest of Slovyansk along the E40 (also known as the M03) highway.[8] Russian forces additionally continued fighting in Dolyna in Krasnopillya and are likely using their positions around Bohorodychne to launch operations to the southeast along the E40 highway.[9]

Russian forces continued ground assaults east of Bakhmut and made marginal gains along the critical T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway on June 15. Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defenses in Vrubivka and are fighting for control of Mykolaivka, Yasylivka, Yakovlikva, and Berestove, all settlements within 10 kilometers of the T1302.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally noted that Russian forces re-deployed one battalion tactical group (BTG) to the Bakhmut area from Kupyansk and deployed unspecified elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army to the Komyshuvakha-Popasna area.[11] This deployment to the Bakhmut area indicates that Russian forces are increasingly prioritizing their force grouping around Bakhmut in order to drive up the T1302 highway and complete the encirclement of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

Russian forces may be staging false flag attacks around Donetsk City to dissuade pro-Ukrainian sentiment. Local residents of Donetsk City and Makiivka reported heavy shelling of infrastructure within both cities.[12] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) authorities accused Ukrainian forces of conducting the artillery strikes, but social media users and the Ukrainian Center for Counteracting Disinformation denied these claims and stated that they were likely perpetrated by Russian troops in order to foster anti-Ukrainian sentiments or encourage mobilization into proxy forces.[13] These potential false flag attacks may be a response to statements made by Western officials on June 15 announcing increasing military aid for Ukraine.[14]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)

Russian forces continued ground assaults northeast of Kharkiv City to push Ukrainian troops away from occupied frontiers near the Russian border on June 15.[15] Russian forces are likely fighting in Rubizhne (in Kharkiv, not Luhansk Oblast), Tsupivka, Ternova, Staryi Saltiv, and Verkhnii Saltiv.[16] Russian troops continued to fire on settlements around Kharkiv City.[17]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces continued to focus on defensive operations in preparation for potential Ukrainian counterattacks along the Southern Axis on June 15.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces are improving their engineering equipment around two settlements just southeast of Davydiv Brid, where Ukrainian forces are still conducting limited counterattacks.[19] Russian forces are additionally regrouping in Zaporizhia Oblast.[20] The Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration reported that Russian troops are fortifying positions in Dniprorudne (western Zaporizhia Oblast) with equipment from Crimea and regrouping around Vasylivka to support operations along the Vasylivka-Orikhiv-Huliapole line.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces additionally deployed an electronic warfare complex to Melitopol, likely to further support their defensive presence in Zaporizhia and counter ongoing partisan actions.[22]

Russian forces are likely attempting to strengthen their presence in the northwestern Black Sea. Satellite imagery from June 14 shows an increase in fortifications and military equipment on Snake Island.[23] The Russian-appointed Kherson occupation administration stated that the Kherson Commerical Sea Port has resumed operations and will begin cargo transport.[24] While Ukrainian forces still control the critical coastline location of Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and can possibly interdict Russian shipping, Russian forces likely intend to strengthen control over port access in the Black Sea under the protection of a fortified naval presence on Snake Island.

Activity in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of occupied areas; set conditions for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or some other future political arrangement of Moscow’s choosing)

Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin continued attempts to establish economic partnerships between occupied areas of Donetsk Oblast with Russian territories. Pushilin met with the governors of Chelyabinsk Oblast and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug in order to agree on a patronage framework for cooperation with occupied Volnovakha and Yasinuvata.[25] Pushilin additionally met with governor of St. Petersburg to arrange for the restoration of Mariupol.[26] Pushilin is likely seeking to arrange for infrastructure assistance to restore these cities, but his continuous pursuit of ad hoc arrangements with Russian territorial bodies indicates continued inconsistencies between annexation policies pursued by DNR authorities.

Russian authorities are continuing to face difficulties implementing their occupation agendas due to pro-Ukrainian pressure in occupied areas. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that unidentified Ukrainian partisans targeted employees of the Russian Emergency Ministry in Mariupol on June 9 and 11.[27] The Ukrainian Resistance Center additionally claimed that Russian occupation authorities are unable to open schools in occupied Berdyansk due to resistance from Ukrainian teachers, who are refusing to teach under Russian curricula.[28] Such pro-Ukrainian action will likely continue to disrupt Russian efforts to consolidate full-scale administrative control of occupied areas and Russian annexation agendas.

January 16, 2022: Johns Hopkins COVID 19 Situation Report

Editor: Alyson Browett, MPH

Contributors: Clint Haines, MS; Noelle Huhn, MSPH; Natasha Kaushal, MSPH; Amanda Kobokovich, MPH; Christina Potter, MSPH; Matthew Shearer, MPH; Marc Trotochaud, MSPH; and, Rachel A. Vahey, MHS.

NOTICE We will not publish the COVID-19 Situation Report on Tuesday, June 21, in recognition of the US Juneteenth holiday. We will resume publication on Thursday, June 23.

MONKEYPOX OUTBREAKS UPDATE Read our latest update from June 1 on the monkeypox outbreaks and visit our monkeypox resource page. We will continue to analyze the situation and provide updates, as needed. If you would like to receive these updates, please sign up here.

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 534 million cumulative cases and 6.31 million deaths worldwide as of June 15*. The global weekly incidence increased 4.3% from the previous week, following 3 consecutive weeks of decline. Global weekly mortality increased as well—for the first time since early February**—up 7.1% from the previous week.

*The WHO COVID-19 dashboard indicates that there is a delay in reporting for the African Region, so the current totals may not be complete.

**With the exception of a 1-week spike the week of March 21, which appears to be the result of a reporting anomaly in the Americas and South-East Asia.

UNITED STATES

The US CDC is reporting 85.7 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,007,374 deaths. The average daily incidence has plateaued over the past several weeks, holding relatively steady at approximately 100-110,000 new cases per day. Despite the ongoing elevated daily incidence, we have not observed a corresponding increase in daily mortality. Daily mortality has held relatively steady at approximately 275-325 deaths per day since late April*. *Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

Despite the absence of a surge in COVID-19 mortality, both new hospital admissions (+6.5% over the past week) and current hospitalizations (+1.8%) continue to increase. Notably, both trends appear to be tapering off to some degree. Considering the plateau in daily incidence, it is possible that hospitalizations could also remain elevated, rather than peaking and then declining.

Community transmission in the US continues to be driven by the BA.2.12.1 sublineage of Omicron (64.2%), followed by BA.2 (14.2%), BA.5 (13.3%), and BA.4 (8.3%). The prevalence of BA.2.12.1 increased slightly from last week, but the prevalence of BA.4 and BA.5 are increasing more rapidly. These 4 sublineages of the Omicron variant represent essentially all new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US.

PANDEMIC TREATY On June 14, the WHO published an annotated draft outline of the prospective pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response treaty. The treaty is currently being drafted by an intergovernmental negotiating body representing WHO Member States, with the aim of establishing a global system for building and maintaining resilience to pandemics and other large-scale disease threats. The draft outline does not contain much detail, but it presents a framework of priority topic areas to be included in the treaty. The outline is organized such that it addresses equity, systems and tools, governance and leadership, and financing for the 4 key phases of pandemic readiness: prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. The draft includes some specific items under some sections as well as placeholders for sections on One Health, access and benefit sharing, scientific cooperation, health literacy, and broader governance issues. The stated goal is to finalize the text of the treaty in time for consideration at the 77th World Health Assembly in 2024, and considerable uncertainty remains regarding the treaty’s final structure and content.

Importantly, independent experts around the world are publishing their own recommendations regarding the scope and content of the treaty. In a letter published this week, Women in Global Health emphasize the importance of including explicit language to protect healthcare workers. They argue that a treaty that focuses solely on government responsibilities and actions, pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical supplies and products, and patients would be insufficient to ensure a safe and supportive environment to protect frontline healthcare workers, who are critical for pandemic response. Researchers from Georgetown University (US) emphasize that the treaty should be informed by current available evidence to identify appropriate policies, systems, and capabilities. They outline 12 key elements that should be included in an evidence-based treaty, which broadly address 4 key facets of pandemic resilience: “(1) reducing spillover risk, (2) reducing pandemic risk, (3) reducing pandemic impacts, and (4) ensuring recovery and resilience.” Their 12 key elements address the human/animal/environmental interface, strengthening public health and healthcare systems and capacities, medical countermeasure (MCM) research and development, selecting appropriate government response policies and actions, government transparency and accountability, legal issues, and equity and justice.

PEDIATRIC VACCINE In their June 15 meeting, members of the US FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) voted unanimously in favor of authorizing the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for use in children aged 6 months to 5 years (21-0 for both vaccines). The 3-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine series demonstrated an overall 80.3% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and the 2-dose Moderna series demonstrated 50.6% efficacy among children aged 6-23 months and 36.8 among those aged 2-5 years. Notably, the top-line efficacy estimate for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is based on only 10 total cases of COVID-19 (7 in the placebo group, 3 in the vaccine group), which contributes to the wide confidence interval, particularly for children aged 6-23 months. The US CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) is scheduled to meet June 17-18, and it is expected to issue its recommendation regarding the 2 vaccines. The final FDA authorization and CDC guidance is still required, but it is possible that the first doses for this age group could be available by early next week.

Despite the long-anticipated decision for some parents, it is still unclear how many will choose to vaccinate their youngest children. As health experts have pointed out, infants and preschool-aged children already have a considerable number of recommended routine vaccinations, including several multi-dose series. Adding another 2- or 3-dose series could be a barrier for some parents due to the extra logistical hurdles of additional visits to the doctor’s office. Most states are still anticipating demand for the newest pediatric series and have already ordered millions of doses. Notably, Florida is the only state not to place a pre-order with the federal government. Still, as more evidence continues to surface on the severe illness faced by children hospitalized with COVID-19, many with no underlying health conditions, the scales may tip further in the direction of vaccination.

PAXLOVID CLINICAL TRIAL On June 14, Pfizer announced plans to halt enrollment in its current clinical trial for Paxlovid, a SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drug. This decision came after preliminary data did not show a reduction in hospitalization and death among “standard-risk” participants—ie, those who do not have underlying health conditions that put them at elevated risk for severe disease and death. The risk decreased by approximately 50%, but it was not a statistically significant benefit. The drug also failed to demonstrate benefit in terms of alleviating COVID-19 symptoms. Due to the lower risk of severe disease and death among these individuals—and therefore, low benefit from the drug—Pfizer elected to terminate the trial. The current Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Paxlovid only applies to high-risk patients. Pfizer indicated that it will include data from this clinical trial in its New Drug Application (NDA) for full US FDA approval for use in high-risk patients.

VARIANT-SPECIFIC VACCINE On June 15, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has initiated a rolling review for their variant-specific candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Major SARS-CoV-2 vaccine manufacturers have been working to update their vaccine profiles as evidence shows diminishing protection against new variants, particularly against the now-dominant Omicron variant. The Pfizer-BioNTech candidate is among the first updated vaccines to begin a formal regulatory review process. With the rolling submission process, the EMA will be able to review data as they become available. The EMA stated that its review will initially focus on manufacturing quality assurance and safety, followed by clinical trial safety and efficacy data as they become available. The announcement also indicated that the companies intend to submit an application to the US FDA in the near future.

CANADA TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS The Canadian government announced that it will lift some SARS-CoV-2 vaccination requirements for domestic and international travel. Starting June 20, Canada will no longer require vaccination for domestic or outbound air, bus, or rail passengers nor for federally regulated transportation sector personnel. Despite these changes, international travelers may still be subject to vaccination requirements. Notably, Canadian citizens and permanent residents who are not fully vaccinated must provide documentation of a negative SARS-CoV-2 test prior to entering the country, and they are subject to testing and quarantine requirements after their arrival. Travelers who are not citizens nor residents are still required to be fully vaccinated to enter Canada, but vaccination is no longer required for international rail or flights departing Canada. Due to the high risk of transmission, vaccination requirements will remain in effect for cruise ships, and other risk mitigation measures will continue for domestic travel, including mandatory mask use. Canada also announced that it will temporarily suspend mandatory random testing at airports through June 30, in an effort to reduce traveler wait times. Starting July 1, all required testing will be moved off-site to reduce the burden on airports.

UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE Researchers from several US universities, led by the Yale School of Public Health, published findings from their research on the projected benefit if the US had a universal healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study, published in PNAS, found that the US could have prevented nearly 339,000 COVID-19 deaths and saved more than US$105 billion in just hospitalization costs under universal health care, based on excess hospitalizations and mortality attributable to the loss of employer-sponsored insurance and low insurance coverage during the pandemic. At the time the study was conducted, the cumulative COVID-19 mortality in the US was 973,459 deaths, so the projected total benefit of universal healthcare would have reduced US COVID-19 mortality by approximately one-third. In 2020 alone, the researchers estimate that universal health care could have prevented more than 200,000 total deaths, including from COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes. The absence of universal health care results in myriad barriers to accessing health services, including screening and testing critical to early diagnosis of COVID-19 and other health conditions as well as preventive services, such as vaccination. And the high cost of care can delay care-seeking behavior, which can result in more severe disease. The additional patient burden from COVID-19 also negatively impacted hospital capacity, which compounds increases in mortality. The researchers argue that the fragmented healthcare system and existing societal vulnerabilities left the US ill-prepared to combat the pandemic.