State Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-27-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Over the last weeks the IHME model has had some major swings in death projections for a number of states. The model is driven by updated data which is imputed three times per week.  For a description and discussion of the model GO TO:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

PROJECTION:

As of April 22, 2020

United States of America:  (74,073 2-27-2020) (67,641 4-22-2020)  (60,308  4-15-2020)  (68,841 4-13-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)  (60,415 4-8-2020)  (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020)  Deaths

>Population 331 Millions  (2020)   223.79 per million

*******************************************************************************************************

California  (2,017  4-27-2020)  (1719  4-22-2020) ( 1,658  4-15-2020)  (1,483  4-13-2020)(1616 4-10-2020) (1,611 4-8-2020)  (1,783   4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)  

>39.56 millions (2018)   50.99 per million

Florida: (1,914  4-27-2020) (1,620  4-22-2020)  (1,363  4-15-2020) (4,748  4-13-2020)  (3999 4-10-2020) (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)

>Population  21.3 million (2018)   89.86 per million

Illinois: (2316  4-27-2020) (2138  4-22-2020)  (2,259 4-15-2020)   (1,248 4-13-2020) (777 4-10-2020) (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386  4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

>12.74 million (2018)   181.79 per million

Louisiana: (2,066  4-27-2020)   (1,780  4-22-2020)  (1,685  4-15-2020) (1,141  4-13-2020)  (1,125  4-10-2020) (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020

>4.6 million (2018)   449.13  per million

Massachusetts (5,498  4-27-2020)  (4,242  4-22-2020)  (3,236  4-15-2020) (8,219  4-13-2020) (6,739  4-10-2020) (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths

>6.9 million (2018)    796.81 per million

Michigan  (3,785  4-27-2020)

> 9.987 million (2019)        379 per million

MINNESOTA (688  4-27-2020)   (360  4-22-2020) (195 4-15-2020)  (656  4-13-2020) 456 deaths 4-8-2020

>5.6 million  (2018)    122.86  per million

MISSOURI: (537  4-27-2020)  (438 4-22-2020) (362  4-15-2020)   (1,712 4-13-2020)  (1,161   4-10-2020)

>6.126 million    87.66 per million

NEBRASKA (463 4-27-2020)  (347 4-22-2020)

>1.9346  million   239.33 per million

New York  (23,930 4-27-2020)  (23,232 4-22-2020)  (21,812  4-15-2020)  (14,542  4-13-2020)  (13,442  4-10-2020)  13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

>19.54 million (2018)  1,224.67 per million

Ohio:  (853  4-27-2020) (808  4-4-22-2020) (716  4-15-2020)  (482 4-13-2020) (489  4-10-2020)  (489 4-8-2020) 544

>11.69 million (2018)   72.97 per million

Pennsylvania (2596  4-27-2020)  (2,770  4-22-2020)  (1,707 4-15-2020)   (2,005  4-13-2020)

>12.8 million  (2019)    202.81 per million

Texas:  (1,656  4-27-2020)  (1,241  4-22-2020)  (957  4-15-2020)  (2,704  4-13-2020)  (2,350 4-10-2020)  (2,042 4-8-2020)  (2,025 4-5-2020)

>28.7 million (2018)   57.70 per million

Virginia (684 4-27-2020) (762 4-22-2020)  (763  4-15-2020)

> 8.536 million    80.30 per million

Washington: (841 4-27-2020)  (813 4-22-2020)  (694  4-15-2020) (855 4-13-2020)  (842 4-10-2020)  (700 4-8-2020) (632  4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

>7.536 million (2018)    111.60 per million

Wisconsin (331 ^4-27-2020)   (356  4-22-2020) (302  4-15-2020)   (339  4-13-2020)  (357 4-10-2020)  (424 4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

>5.814 Million (2018)    56.93 per million

April 28: 48,102 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.

COVID-19 Statistics

Positive (Confirmed)

48,102

Deaths

2125

Total Tests Performed*

242,189

Total Cases

(48,102 4-28-2020) (45,883  4-27-2020) (43,903  4-26-2020) ( 41,777  4-25-2020) (39,658  4-24-2020)  (36,934 ^4-23-2020)  (35,108 4-22-2020)(33,059  4-21-2020)
(31,508  4-20-2020) (30,357 4-19-2020)  (29,160  4-18-2020)  (27,575  4-17-2020) (25,733  4-16-2020)  (24,593 4-15-2020)  (23,247 4-14-2020)  (22,025 4-13-2020)  (20,852 4-12-2020) (19,180 4-11-2020 ) (17,887 4-10-2020) (16,422 4-9-2020) (15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)

Deaths

(2,125  4-28-2020) (1,983  4-27-2020) (1,933 4-26-2020 )(1,874  4-25-2020) 1,795  4-22-2020) (1,688  2-23-2020) (1,585 4-22-2020) (1,468  4-21-2020) (1,349 4-20-2020)(1,290 4-18-2020)  (1,259  4-18-2020) (1,134  4-17-2020) (1,072  4-16-2020) (948 4-15-2020)  (866 4-14-2020) (794 4-13-2020)  (720 4-12-2020) (677 4-11-2020)(596 4-10-2020) (528 4-9-2020) (462 4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

(242,189  4-28-2020) (227,628  4-27-2020) (214,952 4-26-2020) (201,617 4-25-2020) (186,219  4-24-2020)(173,316 4-23-2020) (164,346 4-22-2020)  (154,997  4-21-2020) (148,358 4-20-2020) (143,318 4-19-2020)  (137,404  4-18-2020) (130,163  4-17-2020)  (122,589  4-16-2020)  (116,929 4-15-2020) (110,616 4-14-2020)  (105,768 4-13-2020) (100,735 4-12-2020) (92,779 4-11-2020) (87,527 4-10-2020) (86,857 4-9-2020) (75,066 4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

_{*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.}

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

*****************************************************************************************************************************

PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week.

Major Increase in Projected Deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois  (2,316 4-27-2020)  (2093 4-21-2020) (2,259 4-15-2020) (1248 4-13-2020)

(777 4-10-2020)  (1,584  4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (95 deaths on 4-19-2020)               Previously (91 deaths on 4-12-2020)  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

Illinois Population:  12.74 million        Projected deaths per million: 181.79

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

***********************************************************************************************************************************

Above is from:  https://www.boonecountyil.org/sites/default/files/images/file/04-24-2020%20Eng.png

**************************************************************************************************************************************************************

This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

McHenry County

McHenry County Cases

---

533

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

McHenry County Deaths

---

28

Source: McHenry County Department

---

---

---

Above is from:  https://mchenry-county-coronavirus-response-mchenrycountygis.hub.arcgis.com/

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Winnebago Co. confirms 20 new cases of COVID-19, 22 people recovered

By WIFR Newsroom |

Posted: Sun 4:45 PM, Apr 26, 2020

The Winnebago County Health Department is reporting 20 new cases of COVID-19, no new deaths.

Officials say there are now 313 total cases of COVID-19 in the county and 14 total deaths.

Areas of concern are the following:

-- Alden Alma Nelson Manor
-- Amberwood Care Centre
-- Anam Care
-- Goldie B Floberg Center
-- Milestone
-- Peterson Meadows
-- River Bluff Nursing Home
-- Rockford Rescue Mission
-- Van Matre
-- Winnebago County Jail (added today)

Here is the breakdown of cases in the county by age group:

-- 8 cases: 0-9 age group
-- 21 cases: 10-19 age group
-- 56 cases: 20-29 age group
-- 50 cases: 30-39 age group
-- 52 cases: 40-49 age group
-- 54 cases: 50-59 age group
-- 38 cases: 60-69 age group
-- 17 cases: 70-79 age group
-- 17 cases: 80 and older age group

Here is the breakdown of the cases in the county by race ethnicity:

-- 34%: White. Not Hispanic or Latino
-- 24%: Black/African American, Not Hispanic or Latino
-- 17%: Hispanic or Latino
-- 4%: Asian, Not Hispanic
-- 21%: Unknown

**********************************************************************************************************************************************

Cases in U.S.

• 
  

Updated  April 28, 2020

U.S. At A Glance

As of April 27, 2020

Total Cases^*

^981,246

Total Deaths

55,258

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

• Total cases (981,246  2-28-2020) (957,875  4-27-2020) (928,619  4-26-2020)  (895,766  4-25-2020)   (865,585 4-24-2020)   (829,441   4-23-2020) (802,583  4-22-2020) (776,093 4-21-2020) (746,625 4-20-2020) (720,630 4-19-2020)  (661,712 4-17-2020)  (632,548 4-16-2020)  (605,390 4-15-2020) (579,005 4-14-2020)  (554,849 4-13-2020) (525,704 4-12-2020)  (492,416 4-11-2020)(459,165 4-10-2020) (427,460 4-9-2020) (395,011 4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
• Total deaths  (55,258 4-28-2020)  (53,922 4-27-2020) (52,459  4-26-2020)  (50,439 4-25-2020) (48,816  4-24-2020) (46,379 4-23-2020) (44,575 4-22-2020)  (41,759 4-21-2020) (39,083 4-20-2020)  (37,202 4-19-2020)  (33,049 4-17-2020)  (31,071 4-16-2020) (24,582 4-15-2020) (22,252 4-14-2020) (21,942 4-13-2020)  (20,486 4-12-2020)  (18,559 4-11-2020) (16,570 4-10-2020) (14,696 4-9-2020) (12,754 4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
• Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

***************************************************************************************************************************************

Now being updated three times per week.

PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020)  (74,073 4-27-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020)  (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020)  (61,543 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily    (2150 4-13-2020)

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,212 on 4-12-2010)  (1,983 on 4-11-2020)  (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2 020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

US Population:  331 million    Projected deaths per million: 223.79

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week

*********************************************************************************************************************************************

COVID-19 Tracker   Great site to find specific county, state, country numbers is at:  https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk  Site supplies case numbers, recovered cases and deaths by country and US state.

World population: 7.8  BILLION

Total confirmed cases

Updated 7 min ago

2,954,106

Active cases

1,887,833

+36,352

Recovered cases

860,875

+49,215

Fatal cases

205,398

+3,896