IHME model nearly doubles death projection—now 135,000

Coronavirus model projects 135,000 deaths in US, nearly double its last estimate

By Eric Levenson, Madeline Holcombe and Arman Azad, CNN

Updated 4:07 PM ET, Mon May 4, 2020

(CNN)An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, nearly double its previous prediction.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.

Relatedly, a Trump administration model projects a rise in coronavirus cases and deaths in the weeks ahead, up to about 3,000 daily deaths in the US by June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times. Over the past week, about 2,000 people died daily in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The sharp increases in the two models are tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility in the US. States across the country -- including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina -- have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive a sputtering economy and calm restless residents.

The projections make clear that these reopenings come with fatal risks.

"It's simple logic," CNN's senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen said. "When you tell people, 'Hey, you can go to bars, you can get your nails done, you can go to a restaurant,' those numbers are going to go up."

The novel coronavirus's incubation period -- or the time from exposure to developing symptoms -- ranges from two to 14 days, according to the CDC, and the virus can even spread among people who show no symptoms at all. With widespread testing still limited, the consequences of these reopenings may not be evident for several weeks.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, told CNN's John King on Monday that there are "several reasons" for the increased projections.

"One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation, of social distancing," he said. "We're adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we're seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example."

He said multiple variables impact infections -- like heat, testing capacity and population density -- but "the most important one is mobility."

Right now, he said, "we're seeing an increase in mobility that's leading to an increase in mortality, unfortunately, in the United States."

Coronavirus has killed 68,285 people in the US and infected more than 1,171,000 others, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

President Donald Trump had previously said he expected 65,000 Americans to die, but on Sunday night, he revised that estimated death toll up to 80,000-90,000 people. It may not be the last upward revision; Dr. Deborah Birx, a White House coronavirus task force official, said projections have shown between 100,000 to 240,000 American deaths, even with social distancing.

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Above is from: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html