Projections from University of Washington Study
Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020. Projections were supplied by IHME on 6-8--2020,
FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
Spain and Italy had major decreases in projected deaths per million. Spain was 772 per million (5-27-2020) to 575 (6-8-2020) Italy 717 (5-27-2020) to 584 6-8-2020) . This has caused much tighter death numbers for much of the West.
In descending order the listed countries are: Sweden 932, United Kingdom 652, Italy 583, Spain 575, France 530, United States 440, Ireland 350, Germany 114, Denmark 113, Finland 74, Norway 44, Greece 19.
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United States of America—population 331 million (2020)
peak: 1,983 on 4-11-2020
Total Death Projected (145,728 6-8-2020) (131,967 5-27-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020) (147,040 5-12-2020) (137,184 5-10-2020) (134,475 5-4-2020) (72,860 4-28-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-10-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 440.27
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UNITED KINGDOM—.population 66.65 million (2019)
peak: ( 1,285 on 4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020
Total Death Projected (43,462 6-8-2020) (44,389 5-27-2020) (43,479 5-18-2020) (43,479 5-12-2020) (40,555 5-10-2020) (40,555 5-4-2020) (31,476 4-28-2020) (33,142 4-21-2020) (37,521 4-15-2020) (23,791 4-13-2020) (37,494 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 652.09
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SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)
Peak: (204 on 5-19-2020) (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020
Total Death Projected (8534 6-8-2020) (5258 5-27-2020) (5,760 5-18-2020) (5,760 5-12-2020) (10,196 5-10-2020) (10,196 5-4-2020) (15,625 4-28-2020) (9191 4-21-2020) (15,890 4-15-2020) (18,322 4-13-2020) (13,259 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 931.96
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SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)
Peak; 950 on 4-1-2020
Total Deaths Projected: (27,006 6-8-2020) (36,235 5-27-2020) (29,581 5-18-2020) (29,581 5-12-2020) (27,727 5-10-2020) (27,727 5-4-2020) (25,329 4-28-2020) (24,624 4-21-2020) (23,680 4-15-2020) (18,713 4-13-2020) (18,363 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 575.33
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NORWAY—population 5.368 million (2019)
peak: 19 on 5-4-2020
Total Deaths Projected: (234 6-8-2020) (243 5-27-2020) (225 5-18-2020) (225 5-12-2020) (284 5-10-2020) (284 5-4-2020) (336 4-21-2020) ( 280 4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 43.59
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ITALY—population 60.36 million (2019)
peak: 969 3-27-2020
Total Deaths Projected (35,239 6-8-2020) (43,297 5-27-2020) (35,137 5-18-2020) (35,137 5-12-20200 (31,459 5-10-2020) (31,458 5-4-2020) (27,544 4-29-2020) (26,600 4-21-2020) (26,007 4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 583.81
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IRELAND—population 4.94 million (2020)
peak: 36 on 4-7-2020
Total Deaths (1727 6-8-2020) (1692 5-27-2020) (1,736 5-18-2020) (1,736 5-12-2020) (1,698 5-10-2020) (1,698 5-4-2020) (1,404 4-28-2020) (987 4-21-2020) (890 4-17-2020) (527 4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 349.60
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GREECE—population 10.72 (2019)
peak 11 on 4-23-2020
Total Deaths Projected (206 6-8-2020) (191 5-27-2020) (164 5-18-2020) (164 5-18-2020) (164 5-12-2020) (152 5-10-2020)(152 5-4-2020) (140 4-28-2020) (123 4-21-2020) (119 4-17-2020) (374 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 19.22
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GERMANY—population 83.02 million (2019)
peak: 247 on 4-12-2020
Total Deaths Projected (9500 6-8-2020) (9146 5-27-2020) (9,905 5-18-2020) (9,905 5-18-2020) (9,905 5-12-2020) (8,543 5-10-2020) (8,543 5-4-2020) (6,946 4-28-2020) (5913 4-21-2020) (4,957 4-17-2020) (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 114.43
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FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)
peak: 920 on 4-6-202
Total Projected Deaths: (34,602 6-8-2020) (31,466 5-27-2020) (31,155 5-18-2020) (31,155 5-12-2020) (28,859 5-10-2020) (28,859 5-4-2020) (24,918 4-28-2020) (23,104 4-21-2020) (22,555 4-17-2020 )(17,448 4-13-2020) (15,741 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 530.14
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FINLAND—population 5.52 (2019)
peak 8 on 4-13-2020
Total Projected Deaths (434 6-8-2020) (317 5-27-2020) (410 5-18-2020) (410 5-12-2020) (299 5-10-2020) (299 5-4-2020) (433 4-28-2020) (167 4-21-2020) (118 4-17-2020)
Deaths per million: 78.62
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DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)
peak 45 on 5-4-2020
Total Projected deaths (653 6-8-2020) (624 5-27-2020) (728 5-18-2020) (728 5-12-2020) (806 5-10-2020) (806 5-4-2020) (559 4-28-2020) (772 4-21-2020) (683 4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 113.17
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