State Projections from University of Washington Study: 5-29-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Over the last weeks the IHME model has had some major swings in death projections for a number of states. The model is driven by updated data which is imputed three times per week.  For a description and discussion of the model GO TO:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

PROJECTION:

As of MAY 12, 2020, 2020

United States of America: (135,109  5-29-2020) (131,967  5-27-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020)  (147,040 5-12-2020)  (137,184 5-10-2020) (134,475 4-5-2020)  (74,073 2-27-2020) (67,641 4-22-2020)  (60,308  4-15-2020)  (68,841 4-13-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)  (60,415 4-8-2020)  (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020)  Deaths

>Population 331 Millions  (2020)  408.18 per million 

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Arizona (2665 5-29-2020)  (4335  5-27-2020) (6,174  5-18-2020) (2,871 5-12-2020) (2987  5-10-2020) (1,043  5-4-2020)

> 7.279 millions (2019)     366.12 per million   38.5% decrease

California  (12,951  5-29-2020)  (7558 5-27-2020) (6,842 5-18-2020) (5,832 5-12-2020)  (6,086 5-10-2020)  (4,666  5-4-2020) (2,017  4-27-2020)  (1719  4-22-2020) ( 1,658  4-15-2020)  (1,483  4-13-2020)(1616 4-10-2020) (1,611 4-8-2020)  (1,783   4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)

>39.56 millions (2018)   327.38 per million  71.4% increase

Florida  (3707  5-29-2020) (3899  5-27-2020) (4,721  5-18-2020) (5,819 5-12-2020)(3,971 5-4-2020) (1,914  4-27-2020) (1,620  4-22-2020)  (1,363  4-15-2020) (4,748  4-13-2020)  (3999 4-10-2020) (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)  47% increase

>Population  21.3 million (2018)   174.04 per million

Illinois: (6371 5-29-2020) (7628  5-27-2020) (8,781 5-18-2020)  (7830  5-12-2020) (7395 5-10-2020) (6,353  5-4-2020) (2316 4-27-2020) (2138  4-22-2020)  (2,259 4-15-2020)   (1,248 4-13-2020) (777 4-10-2020) (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386  4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

>12.74 million (2018)  500.08 per million   16.49% decrease

Iowa (1040  5-29-2020) (1146  5-27-2020)  (1043 5-18-2020)  (710  5-12-2020)  (915  5-10-2020)  

>Population:  3.155 million   329.64 per million

Louisiana   (2947  5-29-2020) (3119  5-27-2020)  (3,141 5-18-2020) (3169  5-12-2020) (3,232 5-10-2020)  (2,822 5-4-2020) (2,066  4-27-2020)   (1,780  4-22-2020)  (1,685  4-15-2020) (1,141  4-13-2020)  (1,125  4-10-2020) (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020

>4.6 million (2018)   640.65  per million

Massachusetts (9003  5-29-2020) (8232  5-27-2020) (8,949 5-18-2020) (9,629 5-12-2020) (7545  5-10-2020)  (7,697  5-4-2020) (5,498  4-27-2020)  (4,242  4-22-2020)  (3,236  4-15-2020) (8,219  4-13-2020) (6,739  4-10-2020) (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths

>6.9 million (2018)   1304.78 per million

Michigan (5986 5-29-2020) (5801 5-27-2020)  (6,043 5-18-2020) (6,621 5-12-2020) (6,217 5-10-2020)  (7,080  5-4-2020)  (3,785  4-27-2020)

> 9.987 million (2019)       599.38 per million

MINNESOTA (1712 5-29-2020)(1611  5-27-2020)  (1,814 5-18-2020) (2,049  5-12-2020)  (2,073  5-10-2020) (2,183 5-4-2020)  (688  4-27-2020)   (360  4-22-2020) (195 4-15-2020)  (656  4-13-2020) 456 deaths 4-8-2020

>5.6 million  (2018)    305.71  per million

MISSOURI  (996  5-29-2020)  (1022  5-27-2020)  (1,506  5-18-2020) (2348  5-12-2020)

>6.137million     162.29 per million

NEBRASKA  (475  5-29-2020)  (331  5-27-2020) (243 5-18-2020)  (184 5-12-2020) (218  5-10-2020) (380  5-4-2020) (463 4-27-2020)  (347 4-22-2020)

>1.9346  million   245.53 per million  43.5% increase

New York (31,295  5-29-2020)  (30,823  5-27-2020) (32,135 5-18-2020)  (34,068 5-12-2020)(31,620 5-10-2020) (32,132  5-4-2020)  (23,930 4-27-2020)  (23,232 4-22-2020)  (21,812  4-15-2020)  (14,542  4-13-2020)  (13,442  4-10-2020)  (13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

>19.54 million (2018) 1601.59 per million

Ohio:  (3227  5-29-2020) (3106  5-27-2020) (2,963 5-18-2020) (2,844  5-12-2020)  (2,960 5-10-2020)  (2,552  5-4-2020)   (853  4-27-2020) (808  4-4-22-2020) (716  4-15-2020)  (482 4-13-2020) (489  4-10-2020)  (489 4-8-2020) 544

>11.69 million (2018)   276.05 per million

Pennsylvania (6418 5-29-2020)  (7679 5-27-2020) ( 9623 5-18-2020) (12,420 5-12-2020)  (10,742  5-10-2020)  (8,607 5-4-2020) (2596  4-27-2020)  (2,770  4-22-2020)  (1,707 4-15-2020)   (2,005  4-13-2020)

>12.8 million  (2019)   599.92 per million   16.42% decrease    also  a 20.2%  decrease from 5-18/5-27

Texas (2025  5-29-2020) (2985  5-27-2020) (3,710 5-18-2020) (3,092 5-12-2020) (2,567 5-10-2020) (3,632  5-4-2020)  (1,656  4-27-2020)  (1,241  4-22-2020)  (957  4-15-2020)  (2,704  4-13-2020)  (2,350 4-10-2020)  (2,042 4-8-2020)  (2,025 4-5-2020)

>28.7 million (2018)  104.01 per million  32.16 % decrease  also a 19.54% decrease 5-18/5-27

Virginia (2576  5-29-2020)  (1956  5-27-2020)  (1,980 5-18-2020) (1,944   5-12-2020)  (1,396  5-10-2020)  (1,198 5-4-2020) (684 4-27-2020) (762 4-22-2020)  (763  4-15-2020)

> 8.536 million    301.78 per million  31.7% increase

Washington: (1200  5-29-2020) (1176  5-27-2020) (1,262 5-18-2020)  (1,193  5-12-2020)  (1,120  5-10-2020) (1,159 5-4-2020) (841 4-27-2020)  (813 4-22-2020)  (694  4-15-2020) (855 4-13-2020)  (842 4-10-2020)  (700 4-8-2020) (632  4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

>7.536  (2018)  159.24 per million

Wisconsin: (799  5-29-2020) (697  5-27-2020) (734 5-18-202) (673 5-10-2020)  (717 5-4-2020)  (331 ^4-27-2020)   (356  4-22-2020) (302  4-15-2020)   (339  4-13-2020)  (357 4-10-2020)  (424 4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

>5.814 Million (2018)    137.43 per million  14.63% increase