The following federal report is taken from:
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
WASHINGTON, D.C.
This technical memo describes the likely economic impacts on the local economy of the purchase and modification of the state prison in Thomson, Illinois and its subsequent use by the Department of Defense (DoD) and the Bureau of Prisons (BoP) as a federal facility. This memo assumes that BoP occupies 75% of the facility and DoD occupies the remaining 25%. The primary estimates are:
1. The total increase in expenditures in the area over the first four years of operation through construction, operation costs, compensation, and visitors to the area is between $0.9 billion and $1.1 billion.
2. In the first year, the modification, opening, and running of the facility will generate between 2,290 and 2,960 jobs in the seven-county area. Local residents will be excellent candidates for 1,240 to 1,410 of these jobs. The other jobs will be filled by people relocating to the area. In this first year, total earnings will increase by between $131 million and $185 million.
3. In the second year, the operation of the facility will generate between 2,820 and 3,520 jobs in the seven-county area. By the third year, when the BoP facility is fully operational, the facility will generate between 3,170 and 3,870 jobs in the seven-county area. Local residents will be excellent candidates for 1,720 to 1,920 of these on-going jobs generated by the facility. By the third year, earnings will
increase by between $233 and $289 million, relative to current levels.
4. The ongoing increase in employment reflects jobs created by yearly capital improvements (490-560 jobs), direct hires (1,900-2,400 jobs), jobs created by visitors to the area (280 jobs), and indirect jobs due to increased spending and economic activity (510-640 jobs by the fourth year). In addition, start-up costs that occur in both the first and second year as well as one-time construction costs generate a substantial number of year-long jobs (840-910 jobs).
5. Over the first four years, the 840 - 910 temporary jobs and the eventual 3,180 -3,880 ongoing jobs generated by the facility are expected to increase local earnings by a cumulative $793 to $1,015 million.
6. Approximately 80% of all of the jobs created by the facility will be held by people residing in Illinois, while people in Iowa will fill the remaining jobs. These jobs could reduce the unemployment rate in Carroll County, Illinois, where Thomson is located, by 2 to 4 percentage points. The remainder of the memo provides background and explains these estimates.
I. Background on the Local Economy
The local economy consists of seven counties. First is Carroll County, where Thomson is
located. Four other counties in Illinois with major population centers within a little over one
hour drive from Thomson, Illinois are also included: Whiteside County, Jo Daviess County, Lee
County, and Rock Island County. In particular, Rock Island has a relatively large population and
a military installation, so spillover effects from the Thomson facility are expected. The local
economy also includes Clinton County and Jackson County in Iowa, which have cities nearby.
The economies of the Illinois counties are distressed. The September 2009 unemployment
rate for Carroll County was 10.5%. The comparable rates for Whiteside County, Lee County,
and Rock Island County were 10.6%, 10.9%, and 9.5% respectively. The unemployment rate in
Jo Daviess County was a more modest 8.1% in September, but this rate is up from 5.1% a year
earlier. In addition, the fraction of adults in Carroll County that have a college degree is about
one-half of the national rate, which poses a challenge in today’s economy that increasingly
requires higher education for good jobs.
Nearby counties in Iowa appear to be less economically distressed. For example, the
September 2009 unemployment rates for nearby Iowa counties, Clinton County and Jackson
County, were both 7.7%. Nonetheless, per capita income in these counties was under 85% of
national per capita income in the latest data (average from 2006 to 2008).1
Carroll County has capacity to absorb new economic activity. In a population of roughly
16,000 people, the BLS estimates that 840 people are currently unemployed. In addition, there
are 3 industrial buildings, 7 building sites, 5 retail buildings, 13 commercial buildings, and 2
other buildings for sale in Carroll County.2 The county has at least 18 hotels, motels, and the
like with at least 250 beds.3
The other counties in Illinois and Clinton County and Jackson County in Iowa also have
capacity to absorb new economic activity. We estimate that nearly 17,000 people are currently
unemployed in these six counties. As mentioned above, commuting times from the largest
population centers in these counties to Thomson, Illinois range from 20 minutes to a little over
one hour.4 Thus, it is likely that people in these counties will be willing to work in Thomson and
its environs. In addition, these six counties have at least 170 hotels, motels, and the like.5
II. Description of Facility
The opening of the facility will have a large and immediate direct effect on the local
economy. BoP expects to occupy 75% of the facility, and DoD will occupy the remaining 25%.
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