Wednesday, April 8, 2020

First COVID-19 death in Boone County

April 8, 2020 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Boone County Health Department Announces First Death from COVID-19 BOONE COUNTY— Boone County Health Department is saddened to report that a Boone County resident in their 80s has died from complications of COVID-19. The family gives permission to release the gender of their loved one by sharing this statement with the community, “She was a brave soul who will be missed greatly by her family and friends.

” "I am deeply troubled by the news that we've lost one of our own: the first COVID-19 related death in Boone County," says Amanda Mehl, Public Health Administrator. "Boone County is with this patient's family and loved ones in mourning her loss and honoring her memory.” The Boone County Health Department previously announced that this resident had tested positive for COVID-19. The number of confirmed cases in Boone County is now seven. ….

Above is from:  https://www.boonecountyil.org/sites/default/files/images/file/04-08-2020%20COVID-19%20First%20Death.pdf

April 8: 15,078 COVID-19 cases in Illinois


In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
Positive Cases
(15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)
Deaths
(462  4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
Total Persons Tested*
(75,066  4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois

(1,584  4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (91 deaths on 4-12-2020)               Previously (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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Boone County continues to have seven cases.  Sadly the first death occurred on April 8.

Above is from:https://www.boonecountyil.org/sites/default/files/images/file/04-07-2020%20Daily%20Report.png
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Cases in U.S.

Updated  April 7, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases (395,011  4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
  • Total deaths:  (12,754  4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Sizeable decrease in estimated US deaths, peak is now extended only four days away

PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020: (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily (2,212 on 4-12-2010)

Older Peak Daily Deaths  (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

Projections from University of Washington Study: April 8

Here is an interview which commented on the IHME model.  This model is being used as one of the tools of the US government, CDC.

US coronavirus predictions are shifting. Here's why

Analysis by Paul LeBlanc, CNN

Updated 11:04 AM ET, Thu April 9, 2020


A version of this story appeared in CNN's What Matters newsletter.

Washington (CNN)Things are still getting worse. The US death toll crossed 14,000 on Wednesday, with a record 1,858 deaths reported just on Tuesday. Since the outbreak started, about 425,000 cases have been diagnosed in the US. And researchers say the peak has yet to come.

But the main model used by the White House and pretty much everyone else was updated Wednesday to show far fewer projected US deaths from Covid-19 -- down to 60,415 people by August, from the 82,000 the model showed on Tuesday (which was already lower than previous projections).

What is going on?

CNN Health's Arman Azad reports:

    New data on the pandemic's trajectory -- from the United States and around the world -- has been fed into the model almost every day, driving the changes. And the downward adjustment suggests that social distancing may be working better than expected in some places.

    The pain may last until August -- The updated model assumes social distancing measures, including the closure of schools and businesses, will remain in place until August. But other measures could replace those, Azad reports, including mass screening, contact tracing and selective quarantines.

    What it means for the next few months

    CNN posed a few key questions to Dr. Gregory Roth, one of the senior faculty at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, about the new modeling. The conversation, conducted via Zoom and lightly edited for flow, is below:

    CNN: The IHME model has shifted downward for the second time in two weeks. Why is that happening and what exactly does it mean?

    GR: Our model is designed to be updated frequently to make sure that we're making the best use of all of the available data. This has been a very rapidly evolving pandemic and as data sources change, we want to include them in our forecasts as quickly as possible. The model updates reflect the most recently available data on the number of deaths from the source we're using, which is from Johns Hopkins University, as well as all of the available data on the relationship between deaths and hospitalizations, ICU bed utilization, and the number of ventilators that are being needed.

    CNN: The model assumes social distancing. The fact that the numbers have dropped twice now, does that show that either there's more social distancing happening than expected or is it that social distancing itself is more effective than was expected?

    GR: The model has always assumed that social distancing has an impact on the number of deaths that we expect to occur. It has also always assumed that every state where social distancing policies have not yet been mandated, that they will be mandated within a week of the date that we ran that model. So the model is always forecasting based on the assumption that the states are all going to line up behind a broad, aggressive social distancing policy. However, we certainly account for the fact that some states have implemented that much earlier than others.

    CNN: I think something that might be confusing to a lot of people is that we see this modeling drop -- your model specifically -- but the death toll continues to rise in an alarming way. Can you explain that dynamic and where people should pay attention?

    GR: So the changes in the model are driven by new data and improved methods, particularly around estimating how uncertain the forecasts may be. As we receive more data on Covid-19 deaths, we expect our projections to adjust to follow those new trends. For locations that are still early in the epidemic where there are just a few data points and a low number of deaths due to Covid-19, the forecast will be less certain and the range of deaths in the future will be greater.

    CNN: What exactly could cause the model to shift back upwards? Would it be a relaxing of social distancing measures in certain areas?

    GR: So we haven't seen a relaxing of social distancing in any parts of the United States yet. In the future, if social distancing was relaxed, we would be concerned that there would be a rise again in the number of cases. In fact, one of the most important features of social distancing is that we maintain it long enough to avoid recurrent spikes in the disease. We know that even when cases and deaths are declining in some locations, there is still circulating virus. And given the fact that social distancing appears to be very successful, we are concerned that if it were rolled back too soon, then we would see second or even additional outbreaks after that. Large changes in the model are seen in places where there's a small amount of data. And so we can expect that as more data accumulates in places where currently we don't have many deaths counted, that the quality of those forecasts will improve and may change.

    CNN: Based on your modeling, can you give a sense of a timeline that would make sense for relaxing social distancing measures or is it just too early to be able to talk in terms of a timeline like that?

    GR: I think we don't yet have enough data from this outbreak to necessarily know when it will be safe to roll back social distancing. I think we're all very carefully following the news out of China that there's some locations where they're beginning to roll back some aspects of the social distancing policies that have been implemented. But I think a relatively small minority of the entire population will end up having been exposed and potentially developing immunity, that there's going to be a very large pool of people with no immunity after this first wave. That means that not only does social distancing have an important role, but a lot of the traditional tools in the public health toolkit like surveillance, case identification, contact tracing and all sorts of ways that can be used to try and make sure that we find new cases as soon as they occur are going to be really important parts of making sure that we don't see recurrent outbreaks.

    CNN: How much should people be paying attention to models? Is this something you recommend people follow closely?

    GR: The forecast has a range that's really important to pay attention to. If you are a health care planner, you want to be as aware of the upper range of our forecast as the mean value. And so there's a lot of uncertainty remaining in our forecasts and as a planner you need to be prepared for the possibility that, in fact, the trend may be at the upper end of the range rather than just right through the middle. And so I would first and foremost stress the fact that our forecast is designed for health care decision makers and policy makers and governments so they can try and use all of the available evidence in an up to date way to make good decisions.

    Above is from:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html

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    Projections from University of Washington Study
    FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
    Home

    Major decrease in projections for United States

    PROJECTION:

    As of April 5, 2020

    United States of America: (60,415 4-8-2020)  (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020)  Deaths

    >Population 331 Millions  (2020)

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    Nearly all of these listed states had major decreases in estimated deaths.

    California:  (1,611 4-8-2020)  (1,783   4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)

    >39.56 millions (2018)

    Florida:  (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)

    >Population  21.3 million (2018)

    Illinois: (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386  4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

    Major,major decrease in number of projected deaths for Illinois.

    >12.74 million (2018)

    Louisiana: (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020

    >4.6 million (2018)

    Massachusetts   (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths

    >6.9 million (2018)

    Michigan  (2,103 4-8-2020) 2,963 deaths

    >9.996 million (2018)

    Minnesota:  456 deaths 4-8-2020

    >5.6 million  (2018)

    New York: (13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

    >19.54 million (2018)

    Ohio:  (489 4-8-2020) 544

    >11.69 million (2018)

    Texas: (2,042 4-8-2020)  (2,025 4-5-2020)

    >28,7 million (2018)

    Washington:  (700  4-8-2020) (632  4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

    >7.536 million (2018)

    Wisconsin: (424  4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

    >5.814 Million (2018)

    Tuesday, April 7, 2020

    April 7: 13,549 COVID-19 cases in Illinois


    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.
    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
    Positive
    (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)
    Deaths
    (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
    Total Persons Tested*
    (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

    *Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
    All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

    Information to be updated daily.

    Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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    Increase in Illinois projected deaths; peak changed to higher number 8 days earlier.

    The University of Washington model has a large increase in total deaths for Illinois and places peak date of cases two days later than on March 31 when it was 4-16-2020

    PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

    Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois

    (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020) 

    COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

    For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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    Above is from:https://www.boonecountyil.org/sites/default/files/images/file/04-07-2020%20Daily%20Report.png
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    Cases in U.S.

    Updated  April 7, 2020

    This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

    ***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

    CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

    COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

    • Total cases (374,329  4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
    • Total deaths:  (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
    • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

    * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

    † Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

    Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

    * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

    † CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

    Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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    Sizeable decrease in estimated US deaths, peak is now extended by 16 days but somewhat higher.

    PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020: (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,644 on 4-16-2020

    Older Peak Daily Deaths  (3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

    Monday, April 6, 2020

    Statistics on Illinois COVID-19


    42% of Illinois’ coronavirus deaths are black people — but only 15% of the state population is

    Meanwhile half the state’s confirmed cases are people under th casese age of 50, but almost none of those young people have died.

    By Nader Issa@NaderDIssa Updated Apr 6, 2020, 9:50pm CDT


    Two of every five COVID-19 deaths in Illinois have been one of the state’s 1.8 million black residents, and the 10 hardest-hit communities in the state are Chicago neighborhoods that are home mostly to people of color, according to data released Monday by state health officials.

    The new figures from the Illinois Department of Public Health point to a disproportionate number of cases and deaths among black Illinoisans, especially in Chicago, and lay bare the divide along racial and socioeconomic lines.

    While black residents make up only 14.6% of the state, they’ve suffered 42% of Illinois’ 307 coronavirus deaths. In Chicago, where the population is 30% black, the 108 deaths have been 72% black — an issue over which Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Monday raised a “public health red alarm.”

    Whites make up 76.9% of Illinois’ 12.6 million people, yet they account for only a little more than a quarter of the state’s 12,262 cases and about 37% of deaths.

    “The fact that black people are dying at seven times the rate of any other demographic is stunning,” Lightfoot said in an MSNBC appearance Monday evening. “When I first saw these numbers, I had a hard time thinking about anything else because I knew this was going to land like a bomb.”

    About 3.6% of black residents who contract the virus — 129 of 3,607 — have died, according to IDPH. That’s about the same death rate for whites and Asians in the state who test positive. For Hispanics with confirmed cases, fewer than 2% are dying.

    The community with the most cases in the state is Chicago’s West Rogers Park with 225, a diverse North Side neighborhood more than half made up of people of color. The state’s next nine hardest-hit communities are all on the South and West Sides of Chicago, among them Auburn Gresham with 216 cases, Roseland with 193 and Chatham with 188.

    City health commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady pointed to the higher incidence of chronic diseases among black residents and unequal access to health care, healthy food choices and safe, walkable streets in under-resourced, low-income communities as reasons for the disparities. Lightfoot added that early misinformation that black people can’t get the virus may have also played a part.

    Other experts say the fact that it’s largely people of color who work jobs that have been deemed “essential” means they likely have been exposed to greater risk by still having to go to work.

    State health officials didn’t release data on deaths in each community, nor did they include demographic data on counties with fewer than five cases. And only three-quarters of the cases are broken down by race, according to IDPH, because local health providers didn’t list a race for 24.4% of the cases across the state.

    The data also reveal that half the state’s confirmed cases are people under the age of 50, with many more young people likely going uncounted because the lack of widespread tests has meant older, symptomatic people take priority.

    But those younger residents, for the most part, have so far lived through the virus — less than 0.5% of people under 50 who tested positive have died. While there have been exceptions, public health experts have said for weeks that the main concern with younger people is they might get the virus and pass it on, even if they show mild or no symptoms and survive.

    For older residents, it’s a different story.

    More than 6% of those over 60 who have tested positive in Illinois have died, and a staggering 9% of cases over the age of 70 have passed away, IDPH figures show. In all, 82% of deaths in the state have been people over 60.

    While men and women are contracting the virus at almost exactly the same rate, men have been more likely to die in Illinois — 57% of deaths are men.

    And in Chicago, 2.1% of all positive cases have resulted in a death, while a slightly higher death rate, 2.8%, has been seen in the state’s cases outside of Chicago. The most significant outlier is Kane County, where 6.4% of patients — 15 of 243 — have died.

    Despite the virus spreading to 73 of the state’s 102 counties, 94% of cases and deaths are still in Chicago and the surrounding area, including Lake, McHenry, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Grundy, Will and Kankakee counties.

    Even when Chicago is taken out of the mix, the suburbs — including suburban Cook — account for 52% of cases and 59% of deaths in the state.

    Above is from:  https://chicago.suntimes.com/coronavirus/2020/4/6/21211355/42-of-illinois-coronavirus-deaths-are-black-people-but-only-15-of-the-state-population-is

    Fed action helping or hindering COVID-19’s medical supply chain?


    ‘Swept Up by FEMA’: Complicated Medical Supply System Sows Confusion

    The Trump administration’s new method for distributing medical supplies has led to charges of confiscation.



    Members of the Connecticut National Guard unloaded supplies provided by FEMA at Southern Connecticut University last week.Credit...Kathy Willens/Associated Press

    Zolan Kanno-YoungsJack Nicas

    By Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Jack Nicas

    • April 6, 2020Updated 8:49 p.m. ET

    WASHINGTON — In Massachusetts, state leaders said they had confirmed a vast order of personal protective equipment for their health workers; then the Trump administration took control of the shipments.

    In Kentucky, the head of a hospital system told members of Congress that his broker had pulled out of an agreement to deliver four shipments of desperately needed medical gear after the supplies were commandeered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

    Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado thought his state had secured 500 ventilators before they were “swept up by FEMA.”

    For weeks, the Trump administration pushed states to procure their own ventilators and protective gear, like masks, gloves and face shields. But a new effort by the administration to create a hybrid system of distribution — divided between the federal government, local officials and private health care companies — has led to new confusion, bordering on disarray, and charges of confiscation.

    “Either be in or out, folks,” Governor Polis said on CNN. “Either you’re buying them and you’re providing them to the states and you’re letting us know what we’re going to get and when we’re going to get them, or stay out and let us buy them.”

    In a lengthy conference call with governors on Monday, Vice President Mike Pence, the FEMA administrator and the Navy admiral tapped to lead the government’s logistical “air bridge” tried to lay out how the new system worked.

      “What the president has stood up through FEMA today is essentially a control tower at the airport,” Mr. Pence said.

    “We have the visibility on medical supplies that are moving into this country and are available to vendors in this country,” he said, according to a recording of the call obtained by The New York Times.

    Federal officials say they are trying to expedite the shipment to the United States of large quantities of medical supplies procured by private health care providers such as McKesson Corporation, Cardinal Health, Owens & Minor, Medline and Henry Schein. FEMA allows those distributors to sell about half of the equipment to companies and counties that had previously placed orders. The other half of the shipments must be sold to counties that the federal government prioritizes by the severity of the outbreak, based on data compiled by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


    The federal government will also soon save 10 percent of the supplies on each flight for the national stockpile, according to officials. A Korean War-era production act also allows the federal government to force companies to prioritize its order over another client’s, whether it be a private hospital or another nation.


    In the past week, 14 flights carrying more than 83 million gloves, four million masks, one million gowns and 300,000 respirators have landed in New York, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, Columbus, Ohio, and Louisville, Ky. Mr. Pence said more than 50 flights had been scheduled.

    The administration pivoted to the system of distribution after President Trump tapped FEMA to replace the Department of Health and Human Services as the agency leading the response to the coronavirus pandemic. States had previously submitted formal requests to the government to obtain materials from the stockpile.

    Because the federal government determines which states are in greater need, governors and hospitals executives preparing in advance for the worst have complained that FEMA was effectively commandeering their personal protective equipment, or P.P.E.

    “FEMA realizes that prioritizing P.P.E. deliveries to Covid hot spots can have the unintended consequence of disrupting the regular supply chain deliveries to other areas of the country that are also preparing for the coronavirus,” said Lizzie Litzow, a FEMA spokeswoman, adding that the agency was not seizing any shipments.

    The intervention has confused some local officials and company executives who have watched as the administration has repeatedly called on states to find medical supples on their own without relying on the federal government. But hundreds of hospitals continue to struggle with widespread shortages of test kits, protective gear for staff members and ventilators, according to a new report * by the inspector general for the Department of Health and Human Services.


    The chaotic race to procure such supplies has also drawn fraudsters looking to hoard items and resell the equipment at a steep price. A number of F.B.I. investigations are already underway.


    Some states also trying to bring order to the process on their own.

    California, the most populous state, with 40 million people, is attempting to band with smaller states to procure supplies. The collaboration is aimed at ensuring that smaller states do not lose out to California, which because of its size has the ability to outbid others.

    “This has been described, I think appropriately, as the wild, wild West,” Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said on Sunday. “We are trying to organize in a more deliberative manner.”

    Adding to the disarray is the White House’s ad hoc system of disaster response in which the right call to Mr. Trump can result in one county getting priority over another. Advisers to Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, have surprised FEMA officials in recent weeks to deploy supplies to communities after the area’s representatives got through to Mr. Trump, even if the state had not yet gone through the formal process to secure supplies.

    For instance, after Mr. Trump heard from friends that the New York public health system was running low on critical supply, Mr. Kushner directed agency officials to ensure that there were enough N95 masks in the administration’s inventory, Mr. Kushner said at a White House briefing.

    Now, Democratic governors are trying to balance how to put pressure on the Trump administration without entirely rupturing their relationship.

    “It would be like high school cafeteria drama if it weren’t life or death,” said Jared Leopold, a political consultant and the former communications director for the Democratic Governors Association.

    “He’s basically playing political games around life-or-death issues and leaving states to fend for themselves, which is unheard-of for a president to show zero federal leadership in the middle of a national crisis,” Mr. Leopold said.


    Confusion still plagues some communities. After Somerset County, N.J., secured an order of 35,000 N95 and other surgical masks, the shipment was taken by the federal government, Shanel Y. Robinson, the county’s freeholder director, told The Franklin Reporter & Advocate.

    Garren Colvin, the head of the board for the Kentucky Hospital Association, wrote last week to members of Congress saying that four shipments of protective gear were taken by FEMA before they could be delivered to the hospitals that had originally contracted for the supplies.

    Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts said the state’s new position was “until the thing shows up here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, it doesn’t exist.”

    Private companies have also appeared to lose out on supplies. Dr. Ed Ellison, one of Kaiser Permanente’s top doctors and executives, told staff members last month that the company found 20 million masks to purchase the previous week and that Kaiser’s chief executive had authorized a payment for it that was more than usual because of rising mask prices.

    “But the feds actually seized that shipment before we were able to acquire it,” Mr. Ellison told staff members, according to a recording of the call reviewed by The Times. “And that’s their right. They’re helping to put together for the nation, but just it goes to show you how challenging procurement can be.”

    When asked by The Times days later about the call, a Kaiser spokesman said company officials were unable to find evidence that the government took Kaiser’s masks. The spokesman said the initial information came from a middleman.

    Yet in an internal notice to some workers on Monday, Kaiser Permanente said that Cardinal Health, its main supplier of isolation gowns, notified the health system “that FEMA is intervening and taking the U.S. supply from the Cardinal China manufacturer. We will still receive a small resupply under a protected allocation. However, there are very few other sources for isolation gowns.” As a result, Kaiser told workers to conserve the gowns they had.


    When asked about the complaints from some states and hospitals, Janet Montesi, a FEMA spokeswoman, said the agency’s flights were accelerating the arrival of gear to the United States and that its distribution strategy was designed to ensure that hard-hit areas could get needed supplies and not be gouged for them.

    She said some states that were complaining now could later become beneficiaries of the program if their areas are hit hard by the virus. Given the extreme demand and severe shortage of supplies, she said, “that’s just the reality of what we’re living in.”

    Image

    Picking up emergency medical supplies from the national stockpile in Arlington, Texas, last month. The stockpile is now almost depleted.Credit...Cooper Neill for The New York Times

    Zolan Kanno-Youngs reported from Washington and Jack Nicas from Oakland, Calif. Reporting was contributed by Tim Arango from Los Angeles, Ana Swanson from Washington, Maggie Haberman from New York and Jonathan Martin from Falls Church, Va.

    Distributing Medical Supplies to States





    Zolan Kanno-Youngs is the homeland security correspondent, based in Washington. He covers immigration, border issues, cyber security, transnational crime and other national security threats.

    Jack Nicas covers technology from San Francisco. Before joining The Times, he spent seven years at The Wall Street Journal covering technology, aviation and national news.

    Above is fromhttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-fema-medical-supplies.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage


    * The “new report” is available at:  https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-06-20-00300.asp

    April 6: 12,262 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

    In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.
    Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
    Positive
    (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020)   (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020)  (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)
    Deaths
    (307  4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
    Total Persons Tested*
    (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020)  (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020)  (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

    *Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
    All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.


    Information to be updated daily.

    Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

    *****************************************************************************************************************************

    Increase in Illinois projected deaths; peak changed to higher number 8 days earlier.

    The University of Washington model has a large increase in total deaths for Illinois and places peak date of cases two days later than on March 31 when it was 4-16-2020

    PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

    Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois

    (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)  

    COVID-19 deaths   Peak deaths  (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

    For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

    ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************

    Cases in U.S.

    Updated  April 6, 2020

    This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

    ***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

    CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

    COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

    • Total cases : (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
    • Total deaths:  (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020)  (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
    • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

    * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

    † Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

    Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

    * Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

    † CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

    Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

    ***********************************************************************************************************************************************************

    Sizeable decrease in estimated US deaths, peak is now extended by 16 days but somewhat higher.

    PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020: (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,644 on 4-16-2020

    Older Peak Daily Deaths  (3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2020) (2,271 3/30/2020)