Redfield: Rauner demands are “beyond crazy” and “the worst kind of pandering”
Wednesday, Oct 14, 2015
* From my old pal Kent Redfield…
Hi Rich,
I am just sitting around, looking for things to keep my mind off the Cards’ early exit from the playoffs. Truth be told, I am not a Cub hater, so I will gladly root for them against any of the teams left in the playoffs.
I know this is not new and it occasionally gets reported in the press, but it drives me nuts that the Governor keeps talking about term limits and redistricting reform in the same breath that he talks about necessary reforms that will help the Illinois business climate and turn our economy around.
The Governor’s constitutional amendment on redistricting (HJRCA 40 or 42) would not have any impact until the 2022 election and if the Governor gets elected to a second term and if he keeps his pledge to serve only two terms, then he would be leaving office just before the legislature elected under the new map would be sworn in.
The Governor’s constitutional amendment on term limits (HJRCA 39 or 41) is a ten year limit for legislators, but it would not have any impact on the House elections until the 2026 elections since service before January of 2017 would not count against the ten year limit.
It is a little more complicated for the Senate because a Senator elected for a four year term in 2016 and a two year term in 2020 or a two year term in 2016 and 4 year term in 2018 would have 6 years of service toward the limit before the 2022 election. Senators in these circumstances that ran in districts that were 2-4-4 in 2022 would be limited to 8 year of service since running for a 4 year term in 2024 would give them 12 years. This would potentially be 1/3 of the Senate, but incumbent losses or decisions not to run for reelection would surely make the number smaller. For the Senators with 6 years of service going into the 2022 election who ran in districts that were 4-4-2 or 4-2-4 would be able to serve a 4 year term and get to 10 years of service. This would potentially be 2/3 of members of the Senate although the number again would not be that high due to losses and decisions to run for re-election. Since the sequencing of Senate terms is a random draw, the term limit proposal would have a random effect on a few incumbent senators every 10 years, limiting them to 8 years rather than 10 year of service depending on the luck of the draw.
The limit on 8 years of service in any executive office starting in January of 2017 would have some weird effects, but basically would not have any impact until the 2022 election where all the current incumbent constitutional officers and whoever is elected Comptroller next year could not run for any executive office, assuming they run and are reelected in 2018.
Bottom line, the Governor’s term limit proposal would not have any impact until the 2026 election for the House, the 2024 election for the Senate and the 2022 election for constitutional officers.
I know I am probably being silly, acting like the Governor actually cares about the content or the impact of these proposals, but once a policy wonk, always a policy wonk.
I think I am reading these two proposals correctly. If I am, then holding the budget hostage for “reforms” that will not have any impact until 2022 for redistricting and 2022, 2024 or 2026 for term limits is beyond crazy and the worst kind of pandering. How about this for ad supporting the Turnaround Agenda?
“Turn the Illinois economy around. Tell your legislator to pass the Governor’s term limit proposal and we can force Speaker Madigan out of office in January of 2027, just a few months shy of his 85th birthday”
Having vented, I will go look for some carb free, salt free, low cholesterol way to drown my sorrows that does not violate any of the Illinois Substance Abuse Laws.
Keep up the [cardio] rehab, it is really worth committing to.
Take care,
Kent
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