Odgen & Fry's latest survey on Chicago's mayoral runoff shows the contest remains close, with Mayor Rahm Emanuel polling at 43.5 percent compared to Jesus "Chuy" Garcia's 38 percent.
Eighteen percent of the 1,020 survey respondents were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.13 percent. The poll was conducted Saturday.
Ogden & Fry's polling memo notes that "Garcia has two intangible factors assisting his campaign."
"This Hispanic vote has consistently under-polled in Chicago mayor polls," the memo reads. "Also, the undecided vote generally does not break for a known incumbent."
Ultimately, however, Ogden & Fry predicts that "African-American voters will determine this election," saying that Emanuel "will need to both win the argument that (he) is the better leader for this community and get them out to vote for him."
A previous poll of 979 likely voters conducted February 28 by the firm showed Emanuel at 42.9 percent and Garcia at 38.5 percent. Over 18 percent of survey respondents were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.
Another poll conducted by Ogden & Fry on February 25 showed similar results. In that poll of 1,058 likely voters, Emanuel garnered 42.7 percent of the vote, and Garcia pulled in 38.7 percent of the vote, with more than 18 percent of survey respondents undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.07 percent.
Chicago's mayoral and aldermanic runoff election will take place on April 7.
Poll: Chicago Mayoral Race Remains Close, Hinges On Black Vote | Progress Illinois
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