Commentary: Trump has billions riding on whether he wins
from: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commentary-trump-has-billions-riding-on-whether-he-wins-192358755.html
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Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Mon, November 4, 2024 at 1:23 PM CST 5 min read
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An investor dubbed the “French whale” has sparked fascination with his lavish bets on the outcome of this year’s US presidential election. Fredi9999, as one of his accounts is known, is wagering at least $30 million that Donald Trump will win in the Polymarket prediction market.
That’s peanuts compared with what may be the biggest bet of all on the 2024 election, which is what Trump himself stands to gain — or lose. Through his ownership stake in Trump Media and Technology Group, the stakes for Trump amount to at least $4 billion, which is more than all the presidential election bets on Polymarket combined.
Trump Media, known by its ticker symbol, DJT, is broadly viewed as the one financial asset serving as a binary bet on whether Trump wins or loses the presidential race. If Trump wins, DJT, which houses the Truth Social networking app, could gain a surge of users and revenue, making it a viable social media network able to compete with the likes of X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. But if Trump loses, DJT’s already weak financials could erode further, threatening the whole business. Some investors think the stock could go to 0, imperiling the company.
Shares of DJT have been wildly volatile during the last two months, surging or crashing based on market perceptions of whether Trump is likely to win. There’s a tight correlation between Trump’s odds in betting markets and the direction of DJT shares.
In mid-September, for instance, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris pulled ahead of Trump in betting markets. DJT shares sank and closed September at $12.15, the lowest level since the company went public back in March.
Then Trump’s election odds improved, hitting 64% in the Real Clear Politics aggregate on Oct. 29. On the same day, DJT closed at $51.51, a 324% gain from its September low. There was no company news during that time indicating any sort of improvement in the company’s financial or operating performance, which is weak.
During the last few days, Trump’s election odds have fallen to around 55%, while DJT shares have slipped to about $31. Polls show the two candidates are essentially tied, with Harris possibly benefiting from a wisp of last-second momentum.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump is reflected in the bullet proof glass as he finishes speaking at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
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Trump owns 57% of DJT, and the value of his stake has yoyo-ed in proportion to the stock price and his election odds. In July, before Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, DJT’s market value was around $7.7 billion, putting the value of Trump’s portion at about $4.4 billion. At its low point in September, DJT was worth $2.4 billion, with Trump’s share at $1.4 billion. After the October surge, DJT was worth $10 billion, and Trump’s share $5.7 billion.
