World Projections from University of Washington Study: 5-27-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020.  Projections were supplied by IHME on 5-27--2020,

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

US had a very small drop in projected deaths with no appreciable change in deaths per million

In descending order the projected deaths per million are:  Spain (772), Italy (717), United Kingdom (666), Sweden (514), France (482), USA (399), Ireland (343), Germany (110), Denmark (108), Finland (57) Norway (45), Greece (18).

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United States of America—population 331 million (2020)

peak:  1,983 on 4-11-2020

Total Death Projected   (131,967  5-27-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020)  (147,040 5-12-2020)  (137,184  5-10-2020)  (134,475 5-4-2020)   (72,860 4-28-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020)   (68,841 4-10-2020)  (61,545 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 398.69

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UNITED KINGDOM—.population 66.65 million  (2019)

peak:  ( 1,285 on  4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020

Total Death Projected (44,389  5-27-2020)  (43,479  5-18-2020) (43,479 5-12-2020)  (40,555  5-10-2020) (40,555 5-4-2020)  (31,476 4-28-2020)  (33,142  4-21-2020)  (37,521 4-15-2020)   (23,791 4-13-2020)  (37,494 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 666,00

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SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)

Peak:    (204 on 5-19-2020)  (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020

Total Death Projected (5258  5-27-2020) (5,760  5-18-2020) (5,760  5-12-2020) (10,196 5-10-2020)  (10,196 5-4-2020)  (15,625  4-28-2020)   (9191 4-21-2020) (15,890 4-15-2020)  (18,322  4-13-2020)  (13,259 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  513.98

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SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)

Peak;  950 on 4-1-2020

Total  Deaths Projected: (36,235  5-27-2020) (29,581 5-18-2020) (29,581 5-12-2020)  (27,727 5-10-2020) (27,727 5-4-2020) (25,329  4-28-2020) (24,624 4-21-2020)   (23,680 4-15-2020)  (18,713  4-13-2020)   (18,363  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  771.96   22.5% INCREASE

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NORWAY—population 5.368 million  (2019)

peak:  19 on 5-4-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (243  5-27-2020) (225  5-18-2020) (225 5-12-2020)  (284 5-10-2020)  (284 5-4-2020)  (336 4-21-2020)   ( 280  4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  45.27

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ITALY—population 60.36  million (2019)

peak:  969 3-27-2020

Total Deaths Projected (43,297  5-27-2020)  (35,137  5-18-2020) (35,137  5-12-20200 (31,459  5-10-2020)  (31,458 5-4-2020) (27,544  4-29-2020)  (26,600  4-21-2020) (26,007  4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  717.31   23.22% INCREASE

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IRELAND—population 4.94 million  (2020)

peak:  36 on 4-7-2020

Total Deaths (1692  5-27-2020) (1,736 5-18-2020) (1,736 5-12-2020)  (1,698 5-10-2020)  (1,698 5-4-2020)  (1,404  4-28-2020) (987  4-21-2020)  (890 4-17-2020)  (527  4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 342.51

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GREECE—population 10.72  (2019)

peak  11 on 4-23-2020

Total Deaths Projected (191 5-27-2020) (164  5-18-2020)   (164 5-18-2020)  (164  5-12-2020) (152 5-10-2020)(152 5-4-2020)   (140  4-28-2020)  (123 4-21-2020)  (119  4-17-2020)  (374  4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  17.82

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GERMANY—population 83.02 million  (2019)

peak:  247 on 4-12-2020

Total Deaths Projected (9146  5-27-2020) (9,905  5-18-2020)  (9,905  5-18-2020)  (9,905  5-12-2020) (8,543 5-10-2020)  (8,543  5-4-2020)  (6,946   4-28-2020)   (5913  4-21-2020)  (4,957  4-17-2020)  (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:   110.17

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FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)

peak:  920 on 4-6-202

Total Projected Deaths: (31,466  5-27-2020)  (31,155  5-18-2020) (31,155  5-12-2020)  (28,859  5-10-2020) (28,859 5-4-2020)  (24,918  4-28-2020)  (23,104  4-21-2020)  (22,555  4-17-2020 )(17,448  4-13-2020)  (15,741  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  482.09

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FINLAND—population 5.52  (2019)

peak 8 on 4-13-2020

Total Projected Deaths  (317  5-27-2020)  (410  5-18-2020)  (410 5-12-2020)  (299 5-10-2020)  (299 5-4-2020)  (433  4-28-2020)  (167  4-21-2020)   (118 4-17-2020)

Deaths per million:  57.43

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DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)

peak 45 on 5-4-2020

Total Projected deaths   (624  5-27-2020) (728  5-18-2020) (728  5-12-2020)  (806  5-10-2020) (806 5-4-2020)  (559 4-28-2020)  (772  4-21-2020) (683  4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  108.15