Friday, July 24, 2020

Arizona, California, Florida & Texas COVID-19 dates

July24_CA_COVID-19_ByTheNumbers


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What you need to know now about COVID-19 in Florida

The elderly and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems and diabetes are more likely to develop serious illness.


Current Situation in Florida

Positive Residents

397,470

Positive Non-Residents

4,842

Total Cases

402,312

12,379 New Cases in FL Residents

Deaths

5,653

135 New Deaths in FL Residents*

8 Positive Residents Out of State

*Reported since yesterday

Testing Results

Positive

402,312

Negative

2,874,324

Total

3,276,636

Positive Cases by Exposure Source

Traveled

3,300

Contact with confirmed case

103,725

Travel & contact with confirmed case

3,266

Under Investigation

267,136

Total

402,312

Positive Cases by Testing Source

Positive by DOH/CDC

13,438

Positive by private labs

384,032

Total

397,470

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Wisconsin could be on Chicago Travel Order Soon



Wisconsin Governor Responds as State Nears Inclusion on Chicago Travel Order

The order is assessed on a weekly basis to determine if states should be added or removed from the list of locations travelers must quarantine from

Published July 23, 2020 • Updated on July 23, 2020 at 4:58 pm


Chicago issued an emergency travel order Thursday directing anyone who visits one of 15 states in the U.S. currently experiencing a rise in coronavirus cases to quarantine for 14 days.

With Chicago officials warning that Wisconsin is "very close" to being added to the city's emergency travel order, requiring anyone entering or returning to the city from the state to quarantine for 14 days, Gov. Tony Evers said residents "should take it seriously."

The state was one of several in the U.S. sitting near the cutoff of being added to Chicago's quarantine list, which currently sits at 18 states and is updated every Tuesday.

States are added to the list if they have "a case rate greater than 15 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 resident population, per day, over a 7-day rolling average."

There were 1,052 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wisconsin on Thursday, the second highest daily total after the record was set on Tuesday. There have been nearly 46,000 confirmed cases and 878 deaths, up by 13 from Wednesday.

"[Chicago] continues to closely monitor the spread of COVID-19 in other regions across the country, including neighboring states such as Wisconsin where the case rate is very close to the cut off for quarantine," Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot's office said in a statement Tuesday.

Wisconsin health officials say that the positivity rate of tests reported in the state on both Sunday and Monday was just over 10%.

"When I talk to folks in Wisconsin… we know people are not wearing masks there at the level they are here in Chicago," Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said at a news conference Tuesday, again encouraging residents to wear face coverings in public.

That guidance was reiterated by Wisconsin's governor Thursday, who said while the order may not keep people from crossing the border between the two states, "it's more of a message issue."

"It's difficult to prognosticate what they're going to do in Chicago, but the fact of the matter is, there are folks - let's put it this way, it's very difficult to regulate state boundaries, or in this case, the city of Chicago boundaries versus the boundaries of Wisconsin," evers said. "There's lots and lots of people that live in Illinois and live in Chicago that do work regularly in Wisconsin and vice versa. And I anticipate that that will continue to move forward. But... a message for us in Wisconsin should be if Chicago thinks our people should stay home, then we better put some damn masks on and make sure that we continue to, or to reverse the course that we're in."

Chicago's travel order, which began on July 6, is assessed every Tuesday to determine if states should be added or removed from the list of locations travelers must quarantine from, meaning Wisconsin could be added to the list as early as next week.

The most recent addition to the travel order, Kansas, will take effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday, city officials said. Last week, Oklahoma and Iowa were added to the order.

Other states included are: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.

Arwady said travelers entering or returning to Chicago from "states experiencing a surge in new COVID-19 cases" will need to quarantine "for a 14-day period from the time of last contact within the identified state." Essential workers could be exempt from the quarantine requirement, however, as long as their employer certifies their work in writing.

The order is set to remain in effect until further notice.

CHICAGO TRAVEL ORDERJUL 3

How Will Chicago Enforce New Quarantine Restriction for Travelers?

CHICAGO CORONAVIRUSJUL 2

Chicago Travel Order: What You Need to Know

The move comes as states across the U.S. see surges of coronavirus cases, many shutting down bars and restaurants in an effort to quell or prevent a spike.

New cases have surged in several states across the nation, setting new records almost daily, driven mostly by expanding outbreaks in the American South and West.

New York and New Jersey are also asking visitors from several states from the Carolinas to California to quarantine themselves for two weeks.

CHICAGO CORONAVIRUSJUL 7

DuPage County Health Department Encourages Self-Quarantine for Travelers

CHICAGO TRAVEL ORDERJUL 3

How Chicago Determines Which States Are Listed on Its Travel Order

Still, outside of Chicago, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Wednesday the state won't require residents who travel to and from neighboring states to quarantine for two weeks solely because of that travel.

"We don't live in a country where you close the borders between states," Pritzker said during the governor's coronavirus briefing. "And we're not going to stop people who live in Illinois and work in Wisconsin from doing so."

Above is from:   https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-coronavirus-updates-no-more-indoor-bar-service-in-chicago-other-restrictions-return/2310798/

Johns Hopkins’ COVID 19 Update



COVID-19


Updates on the emerging novel coronavirus pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

The Center for Health Security is analyzing and providing updates on the emerging novel coronavirus. If you would like to receive these updates, please subscribe below and select COVID-19. Additional resources are also available on our website.


EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for July 23 reports 15.01 million cases (247,225 new) and 619,150 deaths (7,097 new). This is the second highest global daily total to date, and it is 21,044 more new cases than the same day the previous week (226,181 cases on July 16). Based on this trend, we expect the WHO to report record high global incidence today and/or tomorrow.

After recent data indicated that it was reaching a peak or plateau, Brazil reported its 2 highest daily totals over the past 2 days—67,860 and 59,961 new cases, respectively. These are considerably higher than the highest days in recent weeks, which were consistently around 45-46,000 new cases. Brazil remains #3 globally in terms of daily incidence, but it closed the gap with India. Colombia reported 7,945 new cases, its fourth highest daily incidence to date. Colombia is currently #5 globally with respect to daily incidence. Mexico reported 8,438 new cases, its highest daily incidence to date. Mexico is #6 globally in terms of daily incidence. Broadly, the Central and South American regions remain major COVID-19 hotspots. Including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, the region represents 5 of the top 10 countries globally in terms of daily incidence, along with Argentina (#8) and Peru (#9). Multiple other countries in the region are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day. Additionally, the region includes 4 of the top 10 countries in terms of per capita daily incidence—Panama (#3), the US (#5), Brazil (#8), Colombia (#9)—and a number of other countries are reporting more than 100 new daily cases per million population.

India reported nearly 50,000 new cases, doubling its daily incidence since July 9. India remains #2 globally in terms of daily incidence. Bangladesh continues to report slowly decreasing daily incidence; however, it is also reporting decreased testing while its test positivity remains steady, slightly above 20%. This could indicate that Bangladesh's decreased incidence could be driven more by reduced testing than slowing transmission. Bangladesh remains #10 globally in terms of daily incidence.

South Africa reported 13,104 new cases, and it remains among the top countries globally in terms of both per capita (#4) and total daily incidence (#4).

The Eastern Mediterranean region remains a global COVID-19 hotspot, particularly with respect to per capita daily incidence. Oman is currently the only country averaging more than 250 new cases daily per million population*. The region represents 4 of the top 12 countries globally—Oman (#1), Bahrain (#2), Kuwait (#11), and Qatar (#12). Nearby Israel (#6) and Armenia (#10), both in the WHO’s European region, are among the top countries globally as well. While no countries in the region are in the top 10 in terms of total daily incidence, many are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day.

*With the exception of Kyrgyzstan, which reported a single-day spike on July 18 before returning to its normal level.

Russia continues to report steadily declining daily incidence, but it remains #7 globally. Luxembourg is #7 globally in terms of per capita daily incidence.

UNITED STATES

The US CDC reported 3.95 million total cases (70,106 new) and 142,755 deaths (1,078 new). On July 22, the CDC reported more than 1,000 deaths for the first time since early June, and it has now exceeded that threshold for the second consecutive day. The US could potentially surpass 150,000 deaths by the end of next week. Additionally, both of the last 2 updates exceeded the daily incidence for the corresponding day from the previous week by more than 2,000 cases. The 7-day average daily incidence is 66,920 cases, the country’s highest to date, indicating that daily incidence continues to increase, even if it is potentially beginning to level off.

More than half of US states have reported more than 40,000 total cases, including California and New York with more than 400,000 cases; Florida and Texas with more than 350,000; and 8 additional states with more than 100,000. The US fell to #5 globally in terms of per capita daily incidence, but it remains #1 in terms of total daily incidence.

We expect the US to surpass 4 million cumulative cases in this afternoon’s update. From the first case reported in the US on January 22, it took 81 days to reach 500,000 cases and 98 total days to reach 1 million cases. From there:

1 million to 2 million cases: 44 days

2 million to 3 million cases: 27 days

3 million to 4 million cases: 14 days

California (425,616 cases) surpassed New York (410,450 cases) to become #1 in the US in terms of cumulative COVID-19 incidence. With an average daily incidence of more than 11,000 cases, we expect Florida (402,312 cases) to surpass New York today, and with approximately 10,000 new cases per day, Texas (361,125 cases) could surpass New York by the middle-to-end of next week. California (nearly 10,000 new cases per day) could surpass 500,000 cumulative cases by the end of next week.

The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard reported 4.06 million US cases and 144,552 deaths as of 12:30 pm on July 24.

NIH CLINICAL TRIALS The US NIH is initiating several clinical trials as part of the Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) public-private partnership. Initiated on April 17, the goal of this effort is to develop a coordinated research strategy to speed up the development of COVID-19 candidate pharmaceuticals. ACTIV has 4 fast-track areas of focus, including pre-clinical treatments, accelerating clinical testing for vaccines and treatments, improving clinical trial capacity, and accelerating evaluation of vaccine candidates. The new trials include antiviral monoclonal antibodies, for both hospitalized and at-home patients; drugs to reduce dangerous inflammatory responses to COVID-19; and drugs to treat blood clotting. A principal goal of the program is to ensure coordinated and standardized protocols and study designs across multiple testing sites in order to promote robust analyses. More than 1,200 clinical trials have been registered with the US government for COVID-19 drugs, and nearly 40% of them involved fewer than 100 patients. This disorganized approach likely will not yield robust data to support effective analysis of many candidate drugs, and ACTIV aims to improve consistency and coordination nationwide.

NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins and several NIH colleagues published a special report in The New England Journal of Medicine that outlined the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics program (RADx), led by NIH in partnership with other US government entities, including the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) and the Department of Defense. RADx was conceived to support rapid development and production of novel diagnostics, including the use of “innovative diagnostic technologies.” Perhaps most notably, it is “expressly focused on health disparities,” rather than purely technical challenges. The program includes 4 principal components, each with a specific focus. Three of the components focus on technical aspects of product research, development, and production, and the fourth is dedicated to improving equity among underserved populations. Racial and ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, and this component, RADx-UP, aims to characterize the factors driving this elevated burden and improve access to testing among high-risk populations, including through community engagement activities.

US COVID-19 RESURGENCE The US continues to battle a resurgence of COVID-19, driven largely by states that were not severely affected early in the US epidemic. As noted above, the US reported 1 million cases over the past 2 weeks alone, and numerous states are exhibiting concerning trends. Current data indicate stark regional differences in the severity of the current COVID-19 resurgence. States in the Northeast, including New England and the Mid-Atlantic region—particularly the northern portion, including Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York—appear to be faring considerably better than the South, Southwest, West, and Midwest. These differences are evident across all major indicators, including incidence, mortality, test positivity, and hospitalizations.

Increasing COVID-19 hospitalizations, in particular, have garnered considerable attention, following reports that hospitals and health systems are struggling to meet the COVID-19 patient surge. Newly published data from HHS shows multiple states in these severely affected regions reporting more than 25% of inpatient hospital beds currently occupied by COVID-19 patients, including Arizona, California, Georgia, New Mexico, and Texas. Several other states in the South, Southwest, and West—including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, and South Carolina—are reporting that more than 15% of inpatient beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. Additionally, analysis from the COVID Tracking Project indicates that national COVID-19 hospitalizations are now equal to the country’s first peak in mid-April. In the first peak, COVID-19 cases were largely concentrated in a few major metropolitan areas—including Boston, Detroit, and New York—and overwhelmed local health systems, which accounts, to some degree, for the higher per capita incidence in these areas. Now, the cases are spread out across a much larger geographic area and population, and more hospitals and health systems, and the overall mortality is lower than it was early in the US epidemic (although beginning to increase again). If continued uncontrolled transmission continues, however, it could necessitate spreading limited health resources (eg, mechanical ventilators, investigational treatment drugs) more thinly across the country, which could exacerbate recent increases in mortality. Statistically speaking, some portion of hospitalized patients are expected to die from COVID-19, so as hospitalizations increase, so will COVID-19 mortality, particularly if available resources are exhausted.

These state- and regional-level disparities have driven a number of states to implement domestic travel advisories or restrictions. Some states require arriving travelers to be tested for SARS-CoV-2 and/or provide documentation of a recent negative test, and some require or recommend self-quarantine, typically for 14 days. Some of these requirements pertain to specific states, and others are broadly applied to all out-of-state travelers. Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York previously implemented a joint policy that requires travelers arriving from severely affected states to quarantine themselves for 14 days upon arrival. The initial list was relatively limited, with only 9 affected states; however, it has ballooned to more than 30 states, covering approximately two-thirds of the entire US population. Additionally, the Ohio Department of Health issued a similar travel advisory for any state reporting test positivity of 15% or greater. The new Ohio policy currently covers 9 states. The Ohio Department of Health recommends 14-day self-quarantine and temperature/symptom monitoring for individuals with recent travel to the affected states, but it does not appear to be mandatory. Interestingly, it appears that Florida’s mandatory quarantine for travelers arriving from the New York tri-state area, implemented earlier in the US epidemic, remains in effect, despite the fact that Florida is currently reporting more than 11 times the combined daily incidence of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

In response to surging COVID-19 incidence in Florida, US President Donald Trump announced that activities for the Republican National Convention scheduled in Jacksonville will be cancelled. Some convention activities were originally moved from Charlotte, North Carolina, after disagreements regarding the state’s restrictions on large gatherings; however, Republican delegates will reportedly still meet in Charlotte to announce President Trump as the Republican nominee for the 2020 presidential election.

INTERNATIONAL COVID-19 RESURGENCE In addition to the US, some other countries are beginning to experience their own COVID-19 resurgence. Many countries are still experiencing the effects of their initial wave of transmission; however, some countries that previously contained their epidemic are now facing increased transmission, some on a national scale and others more localized. Both Tokyo, Japan, and Melbourne, Australia, are reporting major outbreaks, which have resulted in the need to re-institute some social distancing restrictions—although not to the level of full “lockdown.” Spain, one of the most severely affected countries early in the pandemic is now exhibiting increased transmission again, following the relaxation of nationwide social distancing policies. These increases are much smaller than those observed in the US, but they are concerning nonetheless. In the absence of a vaccine, any increase in social contact will result in increased transmission, so it is likely that we will continue to observe this trend as national, regional, and local governments attempt to strike the right balance between COVID-19 risk and economic and social benefits.

Despite early success in containing its COVID-19 epidemic, South Africa has also recently exhibited a resurgence of COVID-19. Notably, South Africa is reporting an increase in excess all-cause mortality, which could potentially be the result of redirecting healthcare resources and services toward the COVID-19 response. While the country’s COVID-19 deaths now exceed 6,000, excess deaths related to natural causes have surpassed 17,000. South Africa accounts for more than half of all COVID-19 cases on the African continent. With the surge in COVID-19 incidence, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa decided to close schools for several weeks. President Ramaphosa also implemented a temporary ban on alcohol sales and a mandatory curfew in the hopes that a decrease in alcohol-related incidents will make more hospital beds available for COVID-19 patients and others. Many hospitals in highly populated areas are already reaching their capacity, and oxygen supplies running low.

US ECONOMIC STIMULUS The US government continues to evaluate options for a possible “Phase 5” COVID-19 funding bill, but considerable uncertainty remains regarding the content and timeline. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was expected to release a draft bill this week as a starting point for debate in the Senate, but it appears that it may be delayed until at least next week as details are finalized. The funding bill could potentially provide support for hospitals and health systems and state and local governments as well as individuals. Individual stimulus payments and expanded federal unemployment benefits are among a long list of high-profile priorities. A report by The Hill indicates that the Senate bill is expected to include similar stimulus payments as the previous phase of funding, possibly US$1,200 per person for everyone with an annual income of $75,000 or less. Senator McConnell previously suggested that the income cap could be lowered for this round to US$40,000, but there are indications that this may have changed.

Considering that the current expanded federal unemployment insurance, an extra US$600 per week, is scheduled to expire next week, it is possible that individuals receiving those benefits could lose that additional funding for a period of weeks while a bill is finalized and implemented. It is unclear if any temporary measures are being evaluated to prevent these payments from lapsing. The Senate bill will reportedly not include a payroll tax cut for businesses, previously a priority for President Trump, following opposition from Republican Senators. Again, these negotiations are ongoing, and the Senate draft has yet to be finalized and released. The House of Representatives passed its own funding bill several weeks ago, but there will likely be substantial differences between the House and Senate proposals. There appears to be pressure to reach an agreement soon in order to provide economic support as states continue to maintain, and in some cases strengthen, social distancing policies, but the exact path forward is not clear at this time.

SAFER NEUTRALIZATION ASSAY There are many different kinds of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests, all of which detect the presence of immune response to previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Neutralization assays detect neutralizing antibodies, or antibodies that correspond to protective immunity. Because neutralization assays require live virus in order to challenge the patient’s antibodies in culture, most of these tests must be performed in high-containment laboratory settings. High-containment laboratories are less common than those operating under lower biosafety levels, so critical research on protective immunity via neutralizing antibodies has been slow.

A study published in Nature presents a surrogate viral neutralization test (sVNT) that can be performed at the BSL-2 level, as opposed to the BSL-3 level. In the sVNT protocol, conjugated SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain and patient blood serum are added to an ELISA plate coated in human ACE-2 receptor. If the patient serum contains neutralizing antibodies, they will block the binding action of the receptor binding domain to the human ACE-2 receptor, which can be quantified using indirect ELISA techniques. The researchers demonstrated that the sVNT protocol exhibited high correlation with results obtained from conventional VNT and pseudovirus VNT techniques. This assay and others like it could accelerate research on protective immunity as the pandemic progresses by allowing it to be conducted in more laboratories and at lower biosafety levels.

US CDC SCHOOL GUIDANCE As the US moves toward the scheduled start of the 2020-21 school year, the US CDC published several updated guidance documents to support schools in preparing for classes in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. A number of prominent US government officials, including President Trump, have publicly called for schools to resume in-person classes, but many state governments, school officials and teachers, and health experts warn that might not be feasible or safe in some circumstances. The updated guidance includes information for schools regarding the current understanding of COVID-19 risk to children and their role in driving transmission in the community and at home as well as recommendations for implementing appropriate social and physical distancing (including mask use), enhanced hygiene and sanitation, and disease surveillance and monitoring systems. The guidance also includes considerations based on the current level of community transmission, including the possible need to close schools due to uncontrolled community spread. In addition to schools, the CDC offers tools and information aimed at parents to help evaluate risk.

The updated CDC guidance includes a statement that explicitly emphasizes the importance of in-person school for children. Some media reports have characterized this as a push by the CDC to resume in-person classes during the pandemic, as it focuses primarily on the benefits of in-person learning rather than public health considerations related to COVID-19. The statement highlights the disproportionate impact of remote classes on lower-income students, racial and ethnic minorities, and students with disabilities or special needs as well as the importance of services schools provide beyond education that support these and other students. Notably, the CDC emphasizes repeatedly that the risk to students—including direct health risks to children and risks of spreading the disease at home—are relatively low in communities with low levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The statement largely focuses on the impact for students and does not fully address the risks to teachers, staff, and family members.

COVID-19 IN REFUGEE POPULATIONS As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, it is clear that some populations are at elevated risk of infection, severe disease, and death, in particular, racial and ethnic minorities. Refugee populations face even greater risk, stemming from conditions in densely populated refugee camps, barriers to accessing health services (including investigational treatment drugs), pre-existing health conditions and poor nutrition, other communicable disease risks (eg, cholera), and limited access to reliable infrastructure like clean water. Additionally, the pandemic is limiting international aid for these populations, as donor countries focus resources domestically to control their own epidemics. Reduced humanitarian aid, including for routine immunizations, can compound the health impact of COVID-19, especially for children, who suffer most during humanitarian crises. Experts at Johns Hopkins University will host a webinar on July 29 (1pm EDT/5pm GMT) to discuss the impact that COVID-19 is having on refugee populations and the response efforts needed to protect children, including through routine immunizations and a potential COVID-19 vaccine. The speakers will include Dr. Shaun Truelove from the Johns Hopkins International Vaccine Access Center and Dr. Paul Spiegel, Director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health. Advance registration is required to participate.

Update on Boone County Animal Control



Boone County union employees want their jobs back and lost wages

MOST POPULAR

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Three employees formerly employed at Boone County Animal Control Services want their jobs back as well as lost wages. [SUSAN MORAN/ROCKFORD REGISTER STAR]

By Chris Green
Rockford Register Star

Posted Jul 21, 2020 at 7:01 AM

BELVIDERE — Grievances filed by three former Boone County Animal Control Services employees who abruptly resigned earlier this month may be headed for arbitration.

The three employees, who account for the county’s entire Animal Services department, have yet to speak publicly about why they resigned, but last week union representative Joe Adrian of Teamsters Local 325 said employees worked under duress due to a poor working relationship with temporary administrator Austin Edmondson.

Adrian said the employees were “harassed, bullied and threatened.” Monday, he said the employees want their jobs back as well as any lost wages.

“We could ask for a mediator and then arbitration, but I’m assuming it will go right to arbitration,” Adrian said.

“Arbitration is a long process. I’m hoping we don’t have to go there.”

Monday, Edmondson said he denied the employees’ grievances on the grounds that the employees resigned.

“If they resign, there’s nothing I can do,” he said.

Edmondson has held the title of temporary administrator since June of 2019. He too has declined to speak publicly about his working relationship with the three employees since that time other than to say:

“If I was such a horrible person, why didn’t they file a grievance before,” he said.

The two grievances that were denied pertain to the alleged treatment of the employees.

Adrian said a third grievance, that has yet to be filed, is to prevent the county from subcontracting the work of the employees.

Meanwhile, Edmondson said an intergovernmental agreement with Winnebago County is being formalized “for them to cover our essential calls such as dog bites and animal mistreatment.”

The Boone County Board is expected to address the issue at their next meeting on Aug. 5.

Chris Green: cgreen@rrstar.com; @chrisfgreen

Above is from:  https://www.rrstar.com/news/20200721/boone-county-union-employees-want-their-jobs-back-and-lost-wages

July 24: 1,532 New COVID-19 Cases in Illinois


Illinois total COVID-19 cases now number 168,457.  There were 18 additional deaths for a total of 7,385.  Boone County recorded an additional 17 cases no additional deaths.

There should be a fall in COVID-19 case—but there is not.

The Rise in Testing Is Not Driving the Rise in U.S. Virus Cases

Matthew Conlen

,

The New York TimesJuly 24, 2020

A member of the Air Force collects samples at a coronavirus testing site in San Antonio, Texas, July 17, 2020. (Christopher Lee/The New York Times)

A member of the Air Force collects samples at a coronavirus testing site in San Antonio, Texas, July 17, 2020. (Christopher Lee/The New York Times)

As coronavirus cases have surged in recent weeks, President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the growing case count is a result of increased testing, not a worsening outbreak. An analysis by The New York Times, however, shows the rise in cases far outpaces the growth in testing.

The average number of tests conducted nationwide has grown by 80% since early June, to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period.

Thirty-one states show an increase in cases beyond what would be expected from expanded testing, if the severity of the outbreak had remained about the same. Florida, the state with the largest discrepancy, is reporting more than 11,000 new cases per day, on average, while only about 2,400 cases each day would be expected because of increased testing. California and Texas numbers are also far above what would be expected.

In some states with smaller outbreaks, case growth outpaces testing growth by large percentages. In Idaho, there are more than five times as many cases as would be expected with expanded testing. In Nevada, there are six times as many.

In 14 states and Washington, D.C., testing has increased faster than cases have, meaning positive test rates are falling. Many of those states are in the Northeast. In New York — the epicenter of the outbreak early on — cases have continued to decline, even with more than 60,000 tests performed daily. In five states, cases are about what would be expected.

These numbers come from an analysis of data from the COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer organization that records the number of tests conducted and cases reported in every state.

To calculate how expanded testing could affect case counts, The Times looked at the average positive test rate in each state for the two weeks ending June 9, when cases reached a recent national low. Those rates were then multiplied by the number of tests done each day since, in order to arrive at the expected number of cases given the current level of testing.

These calculations assume that the severity of the outbreak in each state would remain about the same and that positive test rates would hold as testing expanded. This is the most that cases would increase as a result of increased testing.

As tests become more widely available and more people who are not sick take them, positive test rates should fall.

Instead, the United States is seeing the opposite: More tests are being conducted, but more are coming back positive, driving case counts even higher.

The positive test rate is now over 8% nationally, up from a low of less than 5% in June. That growth is a startling indicator that suggests the outbreak is worsening in a way testing alone cannot explain.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.

The above is from:  https://news.yahoo.com/rise-testing-not-driving-rise-121309899.html

DNA and the slave trade



Dark history of transatlantic slavery traced through DNA study

Ivan Couronne

,

AFPJuly 23, 2020

  • Guests take part in a flower petal throwing ceremony to honor Africans who passed away at sea during the Atlantic slave trade during the 2019 African Landing Commemorative Ceremony on August 24, 2019 in Hampton, Virginia (AFP Photo/Zach Gibson)

  • Map showing the main countries and regions of origin and arrival in the former slave trade. (AFP Photo/Jonathan WALTER)

  • A picture taken on October 18, 2017 shows registers, documents and court records on seized slave trading ships, at the national Saint Helena Government archive in Jamestown in the British Overseas Territory of Saint Helena (AFP Photo/GIANLUIGI GUERCIA)

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Guests take part in a flower petal throwing ceremony to honor Africans who passed away at sea during the Atlantic slave trade during the 2019 African Landing Commemorative Ceremony on August 24, 2019 in Hampton, Virginia

Guests take part in a flower petal throwing ceremony to honor Africans who passed away at sea during the Atlantic slave trade during the 2019 African Landing Commemorative Ceremony on August 24, 2019 in Hampton, Virginia (AFP Photo/Zach Gibson)

More

Washington (AFP) - A new DNA study published Thursday sheds fresh light on the horrors of the transatlantic slave trade, from the legacy of rape that can be seen in today's genetics to how disease likely decimated some groups forced to work in deadly conditions.

For example, DNA from one African region may be under-represented in the US because so many slaves from there died of malaria on American plantations.

The grim results from a paper, which appeared in the American Journal of Human Genetics, compiled genetic data from 50,000 consenting research participants from both sides of the Atlantic.

It cross-referenced these with detailed records from slave ships that transported 12.5 million men, women and children between 1515 and 1865. Some two million died on the journey.

"We wanted to compare our genetic results to those actual shipping manifest to see how they agreed and how they disagreed," Steven Micheletti, a population geneticist at 23andMe, which recruited most of the participants, told AFP.

"And in some cases, we see that they disagree, quite strikingly," he added.

The researchers found that while the genetic contributions from major African populations largely correspond to what they expected based on historic records, there are major exceptions.

For instance, most Americans of African descent have roots in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, in line with the major slave route.

But Nigerian ancestry was over-represented in African Americans in the US, probably because of the intra-continental slave trade which brought them from the Caribbean.

By contrast, there were fewer genetic connections between African Americans and the Senegambia region than would be expected given the number who disembarked on slave ships in North America.

The probable reasons are grim.

"Because Senegambians were commonly rice cultivators in Africa, they were often transported to rice plantations in the US," said Micheletti.

"These plantations were often rampant with malaria and had high mortality rates, which may have led to the reduced genetic representation of Senegambia in African Americans today."

- Racial 'whitening' -

Government and slave-owner practices had an enormous impact on African genetics too.

Despite the fact that more than 60 percent of enslaved people brought to the Americas were men, comparisons of genetics reveal a strong bias toward African female contributions in the modern gene pool of African heritage people across the region.

Much of this can be attributed to the rape of enslaved African women by white men, and other forms of sexual exploitation, like the promise of freedom if they birthed enough children.

But the imbalance is even more pronounced in Latin America, where 70 percent of the slaves who survived the ship voyages disembarked, compared to the United States, the new study showed.

In the US, slave-owners promoted marriages among slaves to ensure their children would form the next generation of the forced labor pool.

In countries like Brazil and Cuba, though, the governments implemented immigration policies in the 1900s, which involved women with African ancestry marrying whites.

These whitening or "branqueamento" policies were meant to cleanse or purify Black people toward a supposed ideal of whiteness.

"We have some regions that are essentially showing 17 African females reproducing for every one African male. We never expected the ratio to be that high," said Micheletti.

In the British-colonized Americas, the ratio is closer to 1.5 or two African women for every African man contributing to the gene pool.

The researchers also found evidence of frequent mixing between enslaved indigenous people with enslaved Africans in Latin America, something which previous work has shown to be the case in the US.

The researchers said they hoped to not only help people of African descent find their roots, but also to understand the historic experiences that had shaped their genes today.

Above is from:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/dark-history-transatlanic-slavery-traced-dna-study-212530556.html