Boone County Watchdog: 04/17/20

Friday, April 17, 2020

World Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-15/17-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020. Projections were supplied by IHME on 4-13-2020,

FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Sweden (576) is still the highest of the eleven countries but it has fallen substantially from previous projections and is more in line with other high death rate countries. Other high death projections are UK (563), Spain (504), Italy (431) and France (346).

Greece, Norway,Finland and Germany are the ultra low all below 60 deaths per million population. Rising from there are Denmark (118), Ireland (180) and USA (208) .

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United States of America—population 331 million (2020)

peak: 1,983 on 4-11-2020

Total Death Projected: (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-10-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 207.98

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UNITED KINGDOM—population 66.65 million (2019)

peak: ( 1,285 on 4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020

Total Death Projected (37,521 4-15-2020) (23,791 4-13-2020) (37,494 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 562.96

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SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)

Peak: (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020

Total Death Projected (5,890 4-15-2020) (18,322 4-13-2020) (13,259 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 575.76

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SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)

Peak; 950 on 4-1-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (23,680 4-15-2020) (18,713 4-13-2020) (18,363 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 504.47

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NORWAY—population 5.368 million (2019)

peak: 19 on 5-4-2020

Total Deaths Projected: ( 280 4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 52.16

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ITALY—population 60.36 million (2019)

peak: 969 3-27-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (26,007 4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 430,86

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IRELAND—population 4.94 million (2020)

peak: 36 on 4-7-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (890 4-17-2020) (527 4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 180,16

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GREECE—population 10,72 (2019)

peak 11 on 4-23-2020

Total Deaths Projected (119 4-17-2020) (374 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 11.10

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GERMANY—population 83.02 million (2019)

peak: 247 on 4-12-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (4,957 4-17-2020) (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 59.71

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FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)

peak: 920 on 4-6-202

Total Projected Deaths: ( 22,555 4-17-2020 )(17,448 4-13-2020) (15,741 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 345.56

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FINLAND—population 5.52 (2019)

peak 8 on 4-13-2020

Total Projected Deaths: (118 4-17-2020)

Deaths per million: 21,38

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DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)

peak 45 on 5-4-2020

Total Projected deaths (683 4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 118.37

State Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-15-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-15-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Major decrease in projections for United States

PROJECTION:

As of April 10, 2020

United States of America: (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020) Deaths

>Population 331 Millions (2020)

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Many of the listed states had major decreases in estimated deaths.

California: ( 1,658 4-15-2020) (1,483 4-13-2020)(1616 4-10-2020) (1,611 4-8-2020) (1,783 4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)

>39.56 millions (2018)

Florida: (1,363 4-15-2020) (4,748 4-13-2020) (3999 4-10-2020) (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)

>Population 21.3 million (2018)

Illinois: (2,259 4-15-2020) (1,248 4-13-2020) (777 4-10-2020) (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)

Illinois returns to a higher projection.

>12.74 million (2018)

Louisiana: (1,685 4-15-2020) (1,141 4-13-2020) (1,125 4-10-2020) (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020

>4.6 million (2018)

Massachusetts (3,236 4-15-2020) (8,219 4-13-2020) (6,739 4-10-2020) (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths

>6.9 million (2018)

MINNESOTA (195 4-15-2020) (656 4-13-2020) 456 deaths 4-8-2020

>5.6 million (2018)

MISSOURI: (362 4-15-2020) (1,712 4-13-2020) (1,161 4-10-2020)

>6,126 million

NEBRASKA (347 4-21-2020)

>1.9346 million

New York (21,812 4-15-2020) (14,542 4-13-2020) (13,442 4-10-2020) 13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)

>19.54 million (2018)

Ohio: (716 4-15-2020) (482 4-13-2020) (489 4-10-2020) (489 4-8-2020) 544

>11.69 million (2018)

Pennsylvania (1,707 4-15-2020) (2,005 4-13-2020)

>12.8 million (2019)

Texas: (957 4-15-2020) (2,704 4-13-2020) (2,350 4-10-2020) (2,042 4-8-2020) (2,025 4-5-2020)

>28,7 million (2018)

Virginia (763 4-15-2020)

> 8,536 million

Washington: (694 4-15-2020) (855 4-13-2020) (842 4-10-2020) (700 4-8-2020) (632 4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)

>7.536 million (2018)

Wisconsin (302 4-15-2020) (339 4-13-2020) (357 4-10-2020) (424 4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)

>5.814 Million (2018)

Hormel in Rochelle closed

Ogle County Health Department orders closure of Hormel’s Rochelle Foods

UPDATED

Last updated today at 5:13 pm

April 17, 20205:12 pmAudrey Moon CORONAVIRUS,TOP STORIES

ROCHELLE (WREX) — The Ogle County Health Department is ordering the immediate closure Hormel's Rochelle Foods facility because of a COVID-19 outbreak.
As of Friday, 24 cases of COVID-19 have been linked to the facility in Ogle County.
The city says the plant has 48 hours to comply with the order and that it will be in effect for 2 weeks.

Above: https://wrex.com/2020/04/17/city-of-rochelle-orders-closure-of-hormels-rochelle-foods/

April 17: 27,575 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

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In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 30, 2020.

COVID-19 Statistics

Positive (Confirmed) Cases

27,575

Deaths

1,134

Total Tests Performed*

130,163

(27,575 4-17-2020) (25,733 4-16-2020) (24,593 4-15-2020) (23,247 4-14-2020) (22,025 4-13-2020) (20,852 4-12-2020) (19,180 4-11-2020 ) (17,887 4-10-2020) (16,422 4-9-2020) (15,078 4-8-2020) (13,549 4-7-2020) (12,262 4-6-2020) (11,256 4-5-2020) (10,357 4/4/2020) (8,904-- 4/3/2020) (7,695-- 4/2/2020) (6,980-- 4/1/2020) (5,994-- 3/31/2020) (5,05--7 3/30/2020) (4,596-- 3/29/2020)

Deaths

(1,134 4-17-2020) (1,072 4-16-2020) (948 4-15-2020) (866 4-14-2020) (794 4-13-2020) (720 4-12-2020) (677 4-11-2020)(596 4-10-2020) (528 4-9-2020) (462 4-8-2020) (380 4-7-2020)(307 4-6-2020) (274 4-5-2020) (243—4-4-2020) (210-- 4-3-2020) (157 4-2-2020)(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020) (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

(130,163 4-17-2020) (122,589 4-16-2020) (116,929 4-15-2020) (110,616 4-14-2020) (105,768 4-13-2020) (100,735 4-12-2020) (92,779 4-11-2020) (87,527 4-10-2020) (86,857 4-9-2020) (75,066 4-8-2020) (68,732 4-7-2020) (62,942 4-6-2020) (58,983 4-5-2020) (53,581—4-4-2020) (48,048-- 4-3-2020) (43,653-- 4/2/2020) (40,384-- 4/1/2020) (35,225-- 3-31-2020) (30,446-- 3/30/2020) (27,762-- 3/29/2020)

_{*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.}

Information to be updated daily.

Above is from: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics

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Home

PROJECTIONS from: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week.

Major Increase in Projected Deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected through August 4, 2020 in Illinois (2,259 4-15-2020) (1248 4-13-2020)

(777 4-10-2020) (1,584 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-2-2020) (2,789 4-1-2020) (2,326 3-31-2020) (2,369 as of 3/30/2020) (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)

COVID-19 deaths Peak deaths (95 deaths on 4-19-2020) Previously (91 deaths on 4-12-2020) (208 on 4-12-2020) (109 on 4-20-2020)

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to: http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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This page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

McHenry County

McHenry County Confirmed

324

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

McHenry County Deaths

Source: McHenry County Department of Health

s page summarizes the latest data for COVID-19 in McHenry County. This data is provisional and subject to change.

Above is from: https://mchenry-county-coronavirus-response-mchenrycountygis.hub.arcgis.com/

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WINNEBAGO COUNTY (WREX) — The Winnebago County Health Department reports 20 new cases of COVID-19 in the county.
The details on the new cases are not known at this time, but the new cases brings the total number of cases up to 144.

Less than 1 percent of population has been tested, according to Dr. Sandra Martell, the director of the Winnebago County Health Department.
There have been 8 deaths related to the virus in the county thus far.

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Cases in U.S.

Updated April 16, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

Total cases (661,712 4-17-2020) (632,548 4-16-2020) (605,390 4-15-2020) (579,005 4-14-2020) (554,849 4-13-2020) (525,704 4-12-2020) (492,416 4-11-2020)(459,165 4-10-2020) (427,460 4-9-2020) (395,011 4-8-2020)(374,329 4-7-2020) (330,891 4-6-2020) (304,826 4-5-2020) (277,205 4-4-2020) (239,279 4-3-2020) (213,144 4/2/2020)(186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020) (122,653 3-29-2020)
Total deaths: (33,049 4-17-2020) (31,071 4-16-2020) (24,582 4-15-2020) (22,252 4-14-2020) (21,942 4-13-2020) (20,486 4-12-2020) (18,559 4-11-2020) (16,570 4-10-2020) (14,696 4-9-2020) (12,754 4-8-2020) (12,064 4-7-2020) (8,910 4-6-2020)(7,616 4-5-2020) (6, 593 4-4-2020) (5,443 4-3-2020) (4,513 4-2-2020) (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020) (2,112 3-29-2020)
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

^* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Now being updated three times per week.

PROJECTIONS: US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020) (61,543 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4/3/2020) (93,765 4/1/2020) (83.967 3/31/2020) ( 82,141 3/30/2020); Peak Daily (2150 4-13-2020)

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,212 on 4-12-2010) (1,983 on 4-11-2020) (2,644 on 4-16-2020)(3,130 on 4-16-2020) ( 2214 on 3/31/2020) (2,214 on 3/31/2 020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths Now being updated three times per week

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COVID-19 Tracker Great site to find specific county, state, country numbers is at: https://bing.com/covid?form=msntrk Site supplies case numbers, recovered cases and deaths.

Boone County Watchdog

Friday, April 17, 2020

World Projections from University of Washington Study: 4-15/17-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Sweden (576) is still the highest of the eleven countries but it has fallen substantially from previous projections and is more in line with other high death rate countries. Other high death projections are UK (563), Spain (504), Italy (431) and France (346).