Illinois COVID-19 death count increased by 17 to 7495. Boone County has an increase of 17 COVID-19 cases and no reported deaths.
Friday, July 31, 2020
July 31: Johns Hopkins Report on COVID-19
COVID-19
Updates on the emerging novel coronavirus pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
The Center for Health Security is analyzing and providing updates on the COVID-19 pandemic. If you would like to receive these updates, please subscribe below and select COVID-19. Additional resources are also available on our website.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security also produces US Travel Industry and Retail Supply Chain Updates that provide a summary of major issues and events impacting the US travel industry and retail supply chain. You can access them here.
EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for July 30 reports 16.81 million cases (253,801 new) and 662,095 deaths (5,999 new). The daily incidence is slightly higher than the corresponding day from the previous week.
Brazil reported 2 of its 4 highest daily incidence over the past 2 days, including a record high of 69,074 new cases on July 29. Following several weeks in which Brazil’s COVID-19 epidemic appeared to be plateauing, Brazil is reporting significantly elevated daily incidence for the second consecutive week. Brazil remains #3 globally in terms of daily incidence but fell slightly further behind India. Broadly, the Central and South American region remains a major COVID-19 hotspot. Colombia reported 3 of its 4 highest daily incidence over the past 3 days, and its epidemic continues to accelerate. Columbia remains #5 globally in terms of daily incidence. Mexico’s average daily incidence remains relatively steady at approximately 6,600 new cases per day, and it remains #6 globally in terms of daily incidence. Including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, the Central and South American region represents 5 of the top 10 countries globally in terms of daily incidence, along with Argentina (#8) and Peru (#9). Multiple other countries in the region are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day. Additionally, the region includes 4 of the top 10 countries in terms of per capita daily incidence—Panama (#1), Brazil (#3), the US (#5), and Colombia (#9)—and numerous other countries in the region are reporting more than 100 new daily cases per million population.
After approximately a week of relatively consistent reporting, India’s daily incidence has increased each of the past 3 days, including a new record high of 55,078 new cases today. India remains #2 globally in terms of daily incidence. Bangladesh continues to report slowly decreasing daily incidence, and its test positivity appears to be decreasing slightly over the past week. Bangladesh fell out of the top 10 in terms of daily incidence.
South Africa reported 11,046 new cases yesterday. South Africa remains among the top countries globally in terms of both per capita (#8) and total daily incidence (#4). South Africa has reported decreasing daily incidence over the past week or so.
The Eastern Mediterranean region remains a global COVID-19 hotspot, particularly with respect to per capita daily incidence, but countries from several other regions are displacing the Eastern Mediterranean in the top 10. The region still includes 2 of the top 10 countries globally—Bahrain (#2) and Oman (#7)—and several other countries are still reporting more than 100 new daily cases per million population. Nearby Israel (#4), in the WHO’s European region, is among the top countries globally as well. Iraq surpassed Bangladesh in terms of total daily incidence to become #10 globally. Numerous other countries in the region are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day.
Montenegro remains in the the global top 10 in terms of per capita daily incidence at #6, and the Maldives climbed to #10, with more than 160 new cases per day per million population.
UNITED STATES
The US CDC reported 4.41 million total cases (65,935 new) and 150,283 deaths (1,417 new). The US once again reported more than 1,000 new deaths—now 7 of the past 9 days—and surpassed 150,000 cumulative deaths. The 1,417 deaths is the highest daily total since May 28. California is reporting more than 475,000 cases; Florida, New York, and Texas are reporting more than 400,000; and 10 additional states (increase of 2) are reporting more than 100,000. Additionally, California has surpassed Massachusetts as #3 nationally in terms of COVID-19 deaths; Florida and Texas are #8 and #9, respectively. The US climbed to #5 globally in terms of per capita daily incidence, but it remains #1 in terms of total daily incidence.
With more than 150,000 cumulative COVID-19 deaths, the US leads the world. The US has reported more than 3 times as many deaths as every country except Brazil. The US represents 22.5% of the global COVID-19 deaths—and 26% of the global cases—despite accounting for only 4.3% of the global population. The US is #9 globally in terms of per capita cumulative deaths—but will likely surpass France as #8 in the coming days.
National COVID-19 incidence and hospitalizations appear to have peaked over the past week, but deaths continue to increase. The US is reporting an average of approximately 65,000 new cases per day, more than double the first peak in mid-April. National COVID-19 hospitalizations are at essentially the level reported during the United States’ first peak in mid-April. Analysis by the COVID Tracking Project indicates that more than 56,000 COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized across the country, based on data reported by individual states. This is a slight decrease from the most recent peak of nearly 60,000 on July 23. The US is averaging more than 1,000 deaths per day for the first time since June 3. Multiple states continue to report record high daily deaths, including Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Oregon, and Texas. Notably, Texas is averaging nearly 250 deaths per day, and Florida is reporting more than 150. Arizona is averaging more than 1 death per 100,000 population per day.
The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard reported 4.50 million US cases and 152,074 deaths as of 10:30am on July 31.
US SCHOOLS, COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES Schools across the country are preparing for the start of the upcoming school year, whether they intend to hold in-person classes, remote classes only, or a hybrid option. A study conducted by The New York Times found that at least 6,600 COVID-19 cases have been linked to colleges and universities across the US, despite most schools suspending in-person in the spring. In total, 12 schools reported at least 100 cases, including among students and staff. The data was collected as part of a nationwide survey and was then combined with other sources to conduct further analysis, including with respect to schools’ plans to resume classes this fall. Participating schools represent a spectrum of plans for fall classes, ranging from wholly or principally in-person classes to entirely online or remote classes. Notably, each of these categories included schools with low reported incidence and schools with high incidence. A number of schools declined to participate in the study for a variety of reasons, including concerns over student privacy with respect to sharing health information and simply not tracking or reporting COVID-19 cases at all. The article also notes that student athletes, particularly (American) football players, are among the first students to return to campus as they begin preparations for seasons scheduled to begin in a few weeks. A separate study of NCAA Division I college football teams identified at least 630 COVID-19 cases among players, coaches, and other personnel at 68 different schools.
Researchers from Cincinnati, Ohio (US), published their findings regarding the impact of school closures on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the US. The study, published in JAMA, found that the timing of US school closures was associated with magnitude of declines in COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Schools in all US states were closed in March, and the researchers evaluated the timing of these decisions, relative to the per capita COVID-19 incidence in the state at the time schools were closed, to the reported incidence and mortality during the following several weeks. The researchers found that states that closed schools earlier (ie, when COVID-19 incidence was lower) experienced greater decline in COVID-19 incidence and mortality than those that closed schools later in their epidemic (ie, when COVID-19 was higher). In light of the timing of school closures with respect to other social distancing policies and the complex interaction between these policies, the researchers attempted to adjust for the effects of other policies, testing capacity, nursing home population, and a variety of other factors in order to better isolate the effects of school closures. They estimate that school closures could have prevented 1.37 million cases over a period of 26 days and 40,600 deaths over a period of 16 days.
Due to the inherent risk associated with holding in-person classes, many schools are evaluating remote/online classes to enable students to continue their education. Some educators are working to improve the quality of remote learning. Many teachers in the US and elsewhere were forced to shift their classes online in the spring, largely without plans in place to do so effectively. Teachers across the US are working to develop best practices and new online platforms to support students in anticipation of the need for remote classes this fall. For example, live instruction may be engaging for students, but it may not be ideal for all students, especially if they are sharing computers or other devices with siblings. Remote classes may not be ideal for many students, particularly those without reliable access to the internet or computers and those whose parents need to remain home rather than return to work, but incorporating lessons and best practices can help mitigate some disadvantages of suspending in-person classes.
SARS-CoV-2 VIRAL LOAD Researchers have been attempting to understand the dynamics between viral load and transmissibility since the beginning of the pandemic. Conflicting data, however, have made it difficult to discern key characteristics such as the duration and levels that SARS-CoV-2 can persist in the body and their relationship to the infectious period. In a preprint meta-analysis study, authors from several medical schools and hospitals in the UK and Italy reviewed 79 studies on coronaviruses—specifically, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2, and MERS-CoV—that address viral load kinetics in humans. The studies indicate that, while viral RNA can persist in and be shed from the body for long periods of time (more than 80 days in some cases), SARS-CoV-2 only remains viable and infectious for approximately one week after the onset of symptoms. Viral load was at its highest approximately 3-5 days after the onset of symptoms, and there was a positive correlation between prolonged viral shedding and disease severity. Older patients also experienced prolonged viral shedding compared to younger patients, even when accounting for disease severity. While there are fewer studies on the kinetics of viral load for asymptomatic infections, viral shedding appeared to be of a shorter duration, and overall viral load appeared to be lower compared to symptomatic cases. The authors conclude that PCR testing is likely not a good tool for evaluating patient recovery, because viral RNA is detectable long after the end of the infectious period. The authors also emphasize that early case detection and isolation should be prioritized in order to maximize control efforts during the time when patients are the most infectious.
BRAZIL At #2 globally in terms of cumulative COVID-19 incidence, cumulative deaths, and daily deaths and #3 in terms of daily incidence, Brazil continues to struggle to control its COVID-19 epidemic amid conflicting strategies from President Jair Bolsonaro, regional governors, and public health authorities. President Bolsonaro recently recovered from COVID-19, but he has now reported a lung infection that he describes as “mold in [the] lungs” that he claims he caught while in isolation. His wife, First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, was also recently diagnosed with COVID-19 and is currently being treated.
President Bolsonaro credits his recovery to hydroxychloroquine, despite continued evidence that the drug is not an effective treatment, and his continued praise of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 has been credited for widespread use of the drug in Brazil. For example, a recent survey found that 50% of doctors in the state of São Paulo reportedly felt pressured to prescribe the drug to patients. Additionally, mask wearing remains highly variable among the Brazilian populace, especially in the hard-to-reach interior of the country, which is likely contributing to continued transmission. While deaths and incidence are beginning to slow in highly populated areas, deaths in interior states are starting to increase. These states have relatively little public health or healthcare infrastructure, including few intensive care hospital beds and poor access to oxygen supplies to treat COVID-19 patients.
Notably, Brazil will participate in two Phase 3 vaccine trials, one involving the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine (UK) and one for the Sinovac vaccine (China). Experts say that Brazil’s unique mix of high community transmission and strong scientific institutions make Brazil an ideal study population for candidate COVID-19 drugs. As part of its participation in these trials, Brazil expects to be able to manufacture any vaccines that prove to be effective, which would provide a major benefit in terms of securing access, particularly when initial supplies are limited.
GLOBAL VACCINE ALLOCATION As we look ahead to a future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine—whether later this year, sometime in 2021, or beyond—governments and experts are developing models and principles for equitably and effectively distributing the vaccine to populations around the world. Many experts argue that the most effective use of a vaccine, particularly in the early stages of production when supply is limited, is to prioritize those in the greatest need. Priority populations would include healthcare workers, individuals at elevated risk for severe disease and death, and areas with high levels of community transmission in order to have the largest impact on slowing the spread of the pandemic and reducing mortality. The WHO and other international groups, such as CEPI and GAVI, have established the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) Facility to encourage and coordinate donations from high-income countries in order to support the distribution of vaccine doses to lower-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) may not be able to purchase sufficient vaccine on their own or compete against wealthier countries to secure access to early doses without external support. Several countries—including the US, UK, and EU—have already contracted directly with pharmaceutical companies to guarantee priority access to early doses. If early vaccine access is limited to high-income countries, it could enable the pandemic to continue devastating LMICs, many of which do not have sufficient public health and healthcare infrastructure to combat health emergencies like COVID-19. International coordination and commitment are needed to ensure that a future vaccine is allocated in a manner that enables it to make the greatest impact.
ECONOMIC IMPACT The US GDP fell by 9.5% in the second quarter, the worst economic quarter in US history, including the Great Depression. Extrapolated out, this would correspond to a 32.9% decrease in GDP over a full year. While this is severe, it is actually slightly better than 34.7% projection. Consumer spending sharply decreased and supply chains were severely stressed due to COVID-19 and associated social distancing restrictions, including including the closure of many non-essential businesses.
Last week, 1.43 million Americans filed new unemployment claims, the second consecutive week of increasing new claims following several weeks of consistent decreases. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that emergency funding federal, including under COVID-19 stimulus packages, has successfully kept people in their homes and businesses operating; however, both federal eviction protections and expanded unemployment payments from the previous stimulus package expire this weekend, and Congress has not finalized negotiations for a Phase 5 funding package. Some parts of the US economy are showing signs of a slow recovery, but recent surges in COVID-19 incidence and mortality in some parts of the country have resulted in some states re-instituting various social distancing restrictions, which could hinder economic recovery in the third quarter and beyond.
US COVID-19 REPORTING A private company, TeleTracking, has been responsible for collecting data for the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) since April. The agreement has come under increased scrutiny after a directive issued earlier this month that compels hospitals to report important COVID-19 data to HHS through TeleTracking rather than through the longstanding CDC reporting system, the National Health Safety Network. Proponents of the new system have noted that the CDC system was optimized for other diseases, such as pneumonia and other hospital acquired infections, but the new HHS system is specifically designed for COVID-19 in hospitals, which could better serve the data needs for the ongoing response. Critics, however, have voiced concerns that reporting critical data, such as personal protective equipment (PPE) and hospital bed use and availability, to HHS rather than CDC could reduce transparency and access to data. Additionally, hospitals had only a few days to make the transition, which could introduce reporting delays that could impact response operations. Some have also noted that the new requirements for reporting are potentially even more labor intensive and cumbersome for hospitals, despite being designed to streamline the reporting process.
US SPORTS Sporting events have already resumed in a number of countries around the world, but the scale of the US epidemic could pose extra challenges as professional sports leagues in the US resume play. The National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) completed its Challenge Cup tournament with zero reported COVID-19 cases. The league implemented a “bubble” for players, coaches, and other personnel before and during the competition and conducted regular testing (more than 2,000 total tests over the course of the tournament). All games were played at a single site outside Salt Lake City, Utah, over a month-long period. Notably, the Orlando Pride withdrew from the tournament before it started due to at least 10 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests among players and coaching staff.
The National Hockey League (NHL) is taking a similar approach to salvage its suspended 2019-20 season. The league decided to forgo the remainder of the regular season after it was suspended in March and, instead, resume play with a modified Stanley Cup Playoffs. Teams are playing in 2 “bubble cities” in Canada, one each for the Eastern and Western Conference. Warmup games took place earlier this week, and the opening round of the playoffs begins tomorrow. The NBA also established a bubble at the Disney/ESPN sports complex in Orlando, Florida, to hold a modified playoff tournament, which began yesterday.
Major League Baseball (MLB) began a shortened season last week, attempting to resume a more traditional schedule, with most games to be played in teams’ home cities. Notable exceptions include the Toronto Blue Jays, who will play all of their games in the US due to travel restrictions between the US and Canada. Less than 2 weeks into the season, an outbreak of at least 17 cases associated with the Miami Marlins has resulted in games for several teams being suspended. Following the outbreak, MLB leadership implemented new COVID-19 policies, including compliance officers for each team to ensure players and staff adhere to the league’s COVID-19 protocols.
Several other professional sports leagues have also been competing this summer, including NASCAR (auto racing) and the PGA Tour (golf); however, as individual sports, they offer better opportunity to maintain physical and social distancing during play than most team sports. Unlike most other sports, NASCAR has begun to permit fans to attend races, although not at full capacity. The US Golf Association (USGA) announced that the upcoming US Open tournament, one of golf’s 4 major tournaments (and one of only 3 to be played this year), will be held without spectators. Athletes and other personnel associated with both leagues have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
A number of NFL (American football) players have “opted out” of playing in the upcoming season due to COVID-19 concerns. The NFL COVID-19 policy allows players to sit out this season but still receive some pay, even without playing any games. Players determined to be at high risk for severe COVID-19 disease (eg, due to underlying health conditions) can receive US$350,000 for the season, and other players can receive US$150,000.
Thursday, July 30, 2020
July 30: State COVID-19 death projections from U of Washington
July 30; July 22 ; July 14 vs. July 7 State COVID 19 death projection from U of Washington Institute
All four projections are through November 1, 2020, Georgia now has the highest projected death rate2575 per million. This week projections rose by major proportions for Georgia, Arizona, Texas And Ohio
The July 30 projections are available from: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
July 7----July 14-----JULY 22------July 30
United States 208,255, 224,546, 219,864 NOW 230,822 Population 331.00 million 629.17 per million 678.39 per million, 664.24 per million, 697.35 per million
Georgia 3,857 deaths; 4736; 7336; NOW 10,278 Population 3.99 million 966.67 per million ; 1186 .97 per million;1838.60 per million; NOW 2575.94 per million
New York 32,221 deaths; 35,379; 35,039; NOW 34,523 Population 18.8 million 1713.88 per million; 1881.86 per million; 1863.78 per million; NOW 1836.33 per million
Massachusetts 12,906 deaths; 10,121 deaths ; 9970 NOW 9647 Population 6.7 million 1926.27 per million 1510.60 per million; 1488.06 per million; NOW 1439.85 per million
Louisiana 4,643 deaths; 5,167; 4955; NOW 6401 Population 4.6 million 1009.35 per million; 1123.26 per million; 1077.17 per million; NOW 1391.52 per million
Connecticut 4,692 deaths; 4,456; 4750; NOW 4844 deaths Population 3.7 million 1268.11 per million; 1204.32 per million;1283.78 per million; NOW 1309.19 per million
Arizona 5,553 deaths; 5,177; 5664; NOW 7946 Population 7.29 million 761.73 per million ;710.15 per million; 776.95 per million: NOW 1089.97 per million
Texas 13,450 deaths;18,675; 18,812; NOW 24,557 Population 29.90 million 449.83 per million; 624.58 per million; 629.16 per million; NOW 921.30 per million
District of Columbia 666 deaths; 681 ; 694 ; NOW 646 Population .706 million 943.34 per million; 964.59 per million; 983.00 per million; NOW 915.01 per million
Florida 17,477 deaths;19,285; 18,154, NOW 16,318 Population 21.47 million 814.01 per million; 893.23 per million; 845.55 per million; NOW 760.04 per million
Maryland 3,880 deaths ; 4,278; 4194; NOW 4026 Population 6.0 million 646.67 per million; 713.00 per million; 699.0 per million; NOW 671.0 per million;
Pennsylvania 9,999 deaths; 8,431; 8028; NOW 8350 Population 12.7 million 787.32 per million; 663.86 per million; 632.13 per million; NOW 657.48 per million
Illinois 8,907 deaths; 8,351; 8472 ; NOW 8280 Population 12.63 million 705.23 per million; 657.56 per million; 772.43 per million; NOW 655.58 per million
South Carolina 242 deaths; 4,556; 3186; NOW 3232 Population 5.0 million 48.4 per million; 911.20 per million; 637.2 per million;NOW 646.4 per million
Iowa 841 deaths; 1,225; 1813, NOW 1700 Population 3.17 million 265.30 per million; 386.44 per million; 571.93 per million; NOW 536.28 per million
Ohio 5,712 deaths;4,545; 3900; NOW 5694 Population 11.73 million 486.96 per million; 387.47 per million; 332.48 per million; NOW 485.42 per million
Colorado 1937 deaths; 2,032; 2774: NOW 2665 Population 5.8 million 333.97 per million; 478.28 per million; NOW 459.48 per million
California 16,827 deaths; 21,264; 19,572; NOW 16,515 Population 39.78 million 423.00 per million; 534.54 per million;492.01 per million; NOW 415.16 per million
Oklahoma 587 deaths;1,029 ; 1533; NOW 1484 Population 4.0 million 146.75 per million 257.23 per million; 383.25 per million; NOW 371.24 per million
Wisconsin 1,410 deaths; 992; 1041; NOW 2030 Population 5.82 million 242,27 per million 170.45 per million; 178.87 per million; NOW 348.80 per million
Washington 2,510 deaths; 3,170; 3303; NOW 2178 Population 7.17 million 325.98 per million ;442.112 per million; 450.67 per million: NOW 303.77 per million
Virginia 5,190 deaths ; 4,881; 2643; NOW 2289 Population 8.63 million 601.39 per million ;565.59 per million; 306.26 per million: NOW 265.24 per million
Arkansas 724 deaths; 617, 895; NOW 833 Population 3.018 million 239.89 per million 204.44 per million; 293.55 per million; NOW 276.01 per million
Kansas 632 deaths ; 410; 412; NOW 588 Population 2.77 million 228.16 per million 148.01 per million; 148.74 per million; NOW 212.27 per million
Idaho 120 deaths; 559; 513 NOW 365 Population 1.75 million 68.57 per million; 319.43 per million; NOW 208.57 per million
Oregon 471 deaths; 605; 683; NOW 634 Population 4.3 million 109.53 per million 140.70 per million; 158.84 per million; NOW 147.44 per million
July 30: 1772 new COVID-19 Cases in Illinois
Coronavirus crossroads? As Illinois sees largest single day caseload since May, Pritzker warns ‘we’re at a danger point’
The rise is part of a disturbing trend that’s seen July’s daily case average shoot up to more than 1,100, compared to 764 per day last month. In the last nine days alone, more than 13,000 new cases have been reported.
By Mitch Dudek Jul 30, 2020, 2:24pm CDT
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/67134294/cv_20200727_111200.0.jpg)
Gov. J.B. Pritzker speaks at a news conference at the Adams County Public Health Department in Quincy on Monday. Neal Earley/Chicago Sun-Times
Gov. J.B. Pritzker warned Illinois is at “a danger point” in the battle against COVID-19, as public health officials on Thursday announced another 1,772 new coronavirus cases — the highest single day tally since May, when the virus hit its deadly peak.
The rise is part of a disturbing trend that’s seen July’s daily case average shoot up to more than 1,100, compared to 764 per day last month. In the last nine days alone, more than 13,000 new cases have been reported — more than half the total for all of last month.
Speaking in Peoria, an area Pritzker has put on his warning list, the governor suggested residents are at a crossroads.
“We’re at a danger point everybody. Pay attention,” he said. “Now is the moment to wear your mask properly.”
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19831189/Virus_Outbreak_Drive_Thru_Testing.jpg)
Medical personnel at Advocate Lutheran General Hospital, conduct drive-thru COVID-19 testing in Park Ridge in March. Nam Y. Huh/AP file
The state’s positivity rate — which experts say indicates how rapidly the virus is spreading through a region — was 2.7% on June 26, when most businesses, restaurants and bars were allowed to resume limited operations under the fourth phase of Pritzker’s reopening plan.
But on Wednesday, the governor said “right now, things are not heading in the right direction,” warning “if things don’t change, a reversal is where we’re headed.”
“Much of the increase in cases has been tied to the 29 and under population, large social gatherings and household spread from family member to family member,” Pritzker said in a Facebook posting.
On Thursday, health officials also announced 18 more deaths attributed to COVID-19 and a seven-day positivity rate holding at 3.8%.
The state’s total case count stands at 176,896. It’s tally of coronavirus deaths is 7,478.
Looking at the weekly average of new cases is also cause for concern.
The seven-day new case average stands at 1,424. It’s nearly double the comparable average of 766 that was recorded a month ago on June 30.
Pritzker has said he would not hesitate to reimpose restrictions in regions of the state where the virus is rapidly spreading.
If a region surpasses certain thresholds — metrics include percentage of people testing positive, hospital capacity, and rising hospital admissions — then officials can choose to tighten restrictions from a “menu” of options outlined in the new tiered-system.
Four counties are on his warning list: LaSalle in north-central Illinois, Randolph in the Metro East region near St. Louis, centrally located Peoria and Adam along the Mississippi River.
Above is from: https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2020/7/30/21348339/coronavirus-covid-19-illinois-1772-pritzker-briefing-deaths-cases-reopening
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
New sports schedules and training mandated
New youth sports guidelines drastically limit allowable competition
.jpg)
Gov. JB Pritzker responds to questions from the news media during a COVID-19 briefing in Chicago Wednesday in which he announced new guidelines drastically limiting the allowable competition in youth sports. (Credit: BlueRoomStream.com)
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
Football, competitive cheer, wrestling effectively limited to no-contact practice
By JERRY NOWICKI
Capitol News Illinois
jnowicki@capitolnewsillinois.com
SPRINGFIELD – The state on Wednesday released new guidelines for youth and recreational sports that will drastically limit allowable activities based on the risk of spreading the novel coronavirus.
Gov. JB Pritzker announced the new guidelines at a COVID-19-related news conference in Chicago Wednesday, calling it a “situation where the toughest choice is also the safest one.”
The guidelines, which classify sports in three tiers of risk based on the likelihood that participation in the sport increases coronavirus transmission, pertain to school-based sports, travel clubs, private and recreational leagues, and park district sports programs.
The new guidelines, which are set to take effect Aug. 15, do not apply to adults playing tennis and golf, both of which are activities already regulated under guidance issued by the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity in June.
“(Major League Baseball) is facing down a major outbreak just days into its abbreviated, fan-free season,” Pritzker said, referencing the outbreak that canceled the week’s games for the Miami Marlins. “This virus is unrelenting, and it spreads so easily that no amount of restriction seems to keep it off the playing field or out of the locker room.”
For medium and higher risk sports as classified by the state, the competitive season is effectively canceled. High risk sports include boxing, competitive cheer and dance, football, hockey, lacrosse, martial arts, rugby, ultimate Frisbee and wrestling.
Those sports will be allowed to continue on the first of four specified levels of activity, which is restricted to no-contact practices and trainings. That means no competition at any level.
The Illinois High School Association, which oversees most interschool athletics in Illinois, announced later Wednesday that football, girls volleyball and boys soccer will be moved to spring 2021. They submitted the modified season plan to the Illinois Department of Public Health for approval.
Golf, girls tennis, cross country, and swimming and diving will occur in the fall season, which will run from Aug. 10 to October 24.
Per the IHSA schedule, the winter sports season will run from Nov. 16 to Feb. 13, spring sports will run from Feb. 15 to May 1, and summer sports will run from May 3 to June 26.
Meanwhile, per the governor’s plan, medium risk activities include basketball and wheelchair basketball, fencing, flag football and 7-on-7 football, paintball, racquetball, soccer, volleyball and water polo.
Participants in those sports will be allowed to compete at level two, which includes scrimmage against teammates with parental consent for minors, but also does not allow for outside competition.
Low-risk sports will be allowed to compete in intra-league, intra-conference matches or matches within their emergency medical system regions. State- or league-championship games or meets would be allowed only for low-risk sports.
Baseball and softball are included in this category, provided players and coaches remain at least 6-feet apart in dugout areas, or players are seated 6-feet apart in bleachers behind the dugout. If those conditions aren’t met, the sports enter the medium risk category and are not allowed to compete with others.
Bass fishing, sailing, canoeing and kayaking are low-risk too, if the number of people on a boat is limited enough to allow for social distancing. If not, they are medium or higher risk.
Singles ice skating is low risk, but any more than that is high risk. Cross country and cycling are low risk, provided the number of competitors are reduced and workspace guidelines are followed.
Gymnastics, ropes courses and weightlifting are low-risk if the equipment is cleaned between each use, but medium risk if not.
Track and field is low risk, but runners must use every other track and equipment must be frequently cleaned or it’s in the medium category as well.
Swimming and diving is low-risk if restricted to a single lane and singles diving. Relays, synchronized swimming and paired diving are medium risk.
Badminton, archery, bowling, climbing, crew, scholastic golf, disc golf, horseback riding, skateboarding and tennis are all deemed low-risk by the state without any qualifiers.
Sideline spirit sports are considered low risk if participants remain six feet apart and there are no stunts and lifts. Otherwise they are high risk.
“This virus remains dangerous to kids, and parents, and grandparents, and teachers, and coaches, and for right now, this is the best thing that we can do for the health and safety of our families under the current circumstances,” Pritzker said.
The announcement came as the Illinois Department of Public Health reported another 1,393 confirmed cases of the virus among 38,187 tests completed in the previous 24 hours. That accounted for a one-day positivity rate of 3.6 percent, which kept the rolling seven-day rate for the state at 3.8 percent.
At the end of Wednesday, there were 1,491 COVID-19 patients in Illinois hospitals, including 355 in intensive care unit beds and 152 on ventilators, all of which represented increases from the previous day.
“Not only have we started to see an increase in the cases over the past several weeks, but we're also seeing a slight increase in hospital admissions, as well,” IDPH Dr. Ngozi Ezike said at the news conference. “These are clearly indicators that we are headed in the wrong direction.”
She again urged Illinoisans to wear face coverings, remain 6 feet apart from others and wash hands frequently.
“That's what we can all do. That's what we can all do to protect ourselves our families, our friends, our community, our state,” she said.
Pritzker said the guidelines should not be extrapolated as a comment on how education will be treated when school starts in the fall.
“I think each school is trying to set plans for their school,” he said. “I've said all along here that the (Illinois State Board of Education) has been putting out guidance to make sure that there are some basic requirements like masking in schools that are adhered to. But because each school is so much different—there are different campuses there are differently configured buildings, different numbers of people in a building per square foot – we really want those schools to make decisions for themselves. But there's no doubt about it. I'm watching very closely.”
Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government and distributed to more than 400 newspapers statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation
Above is from: https://capitolnewsillinois.com/NEWS/new-youth-sports-guidelines-drastically-limit-allowable-competition
July 29: 1393 new COVID-19 Cases in Illinois
Illinois now has had 175,124 COVID-19 cases, Deaths increased by 16 to 7462. Boone County had 4 new COVID-19 cases.
July 29: Johns Hopkins Update
COVID-19
Updates on the emerging novel coronavirus pandemic from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
The Center for Health Security is analyzing and providing updates on the COVID-19 pandemic. If you would like to receive these updates, please subscribe below and select COVID-19. Additional resources are also available on our website.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security also produces US Travel Industry and Retail Supply Chain Updates that provide a summary of major issues and events impacting the US travel industry and retail supply chain. You can access them here.
EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for July 28 reports 16.34 million cases (226,783 new) and 650,805 deaths (4,153 new). The WHO reported 5 of the 6 highest daily incidence over the past 6 days.
NOTE: The July 27 Situation Report includes an erratum that indicates the US reported 74,235 new cases on July 26, which were included in the global cumulative totals.
In total, 10 countries are reporting test positivity greater than 25%, well over the WHO’s benchmark of 5% to facilitate easing social distancing measures, and most are continuing to increase steadily. Notably, 7 of these countries are in the Americas; Bolivia, Brazil, and Mexico are currently reporting test positivity greater than 60%. By contrast, all countries in Europe are reporting test positivity of less than 10%, and most are less than 3%. Additionally, more than 25 countries are reporting more than 100% more cases than they did 2 weeks ago. Many of these countries are reporting relatively low daily incidence, so smaller changes in absolute numbers can result in large relative changes. But 11 countries are reporting more than 100 new cases per day, including several that were more severely affected early in the pandemic and are now experiencing a resurgence of transmission: Australia, Belgium, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and Spain. On a more positive note, there are currently no countries reporting more than 250 new daily cases per million population.
Brazil reported 40,816 new cases. This is approximately equal to the corresponding day the previous week and fairly consistent with the several weeks before that; however, last week, Brazil reported significantly higher daily incidence later in the week. Brazil fell to #3 globally in terms of daily incidence, but its daily incidence is essentially equal to #2 India.
Broadly, the Central and South American region remains a major COVID-19 hotspot. Colombia reported 10,284 new cases, setting a new record high and exceeding 10,000 daily cases for the first time. After a week of reporting 6,500-8,000 new cases per day—Columbia’s daily incidence jumped by more than 2,000 cases. Colombia remains #5 globally with respect to daily incidence. Mexico’s daily incidence continues to vary widely, often jumping up or down by 1,500 cases or more from day to day. Looking at the 7-day average, Mexico’s increase in daily incidence may be starting to slow. Over the past 6 days, Mexico has consistently reported 6,500-6,700 new cases per day. Mexico remains #6 globally in terms of daily incidence. Including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, the Central and South American region represents 5 of the top 10 countries globally in terms of daily incidence, along with Argentina (#8) and Peru (#9). Multiple other countries in the region are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day. Additionally, the region includes 4 of the top 10 countries in terms of per capita daily incidence—Panama (#1), Brazil (#5), the US (#7), and Colombia (#9)—and a number of other countries in the region are reporting more than 100 new daily cases per million population.
India continues to report relatively consistent daily incidence—approximately, 48-50,000 new cases per day. This trend has now persisted for 6 days, following several weeks of exponential growth. India’s testing continues to increase, but its test positivity increased sharply over the course of the past week. India surpassed Brazil to regain the #2 position globally in terms of daily incidence, but its daily incidence is essentially equal to Brazil’s. Bangladesh continues to report slowly decreasing daily incidence. Its daily testing appears to have leveled off after 2 weeks of steady decline; however, its test positivity appears to have increased slightly, up from 20-23% from late May through early July to 23-25% since then. Bangladesh remains #10 globally in terms of daily incidence.
South Africa reported 7,232 new cases yesterday and 7,096 new cases on Monday, the country’s 2 lowest daily incidence since July 1. South Africa remains among the top countries globally in terms of both per capita (#8) and total daily incidence (#4). South Africa’s daily incidence appears to have reached a peak or plateau, and it has reported slightly decreasing average daily incidence over the past week or so.
The Eastern Mediterranean region remains a global COVID-19 hotspot, particularly with respect to per capita daily incidence. The region represents 3 of the top 10 countries globally—Oman (#3), Bahrain (#4), and Kuwait (#10). Nearby Israel (#6), in the WHO’s European region, is among the top countries globally as well. While no countries in the region are in the top 10 in terms of total daily incidence, many are reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day.
As a result of several recent days of reporting more than 300 new cases, Montenegro has climbed rapidly into the global top 10 in terms of per capita daily incidence (#2).
The US CDC reported 4.28 million total cases (54,448 new) and 147,672 deaths (1,126 new). The US once again reported more than 1,000 new deaths, the fifth time in the past 7 days, and the country could potentially reach 150,000 cumulative deaths in tomorrow’s update. California is reporting more than 450,000 cases; Florida and New York are reporting more than 400,000 cases; Texas is reporting more than 375,000 cases; and 8 additional states are reporting more than 100,000 cases. The US fell to #7 globally in terms of per capita daily incidence, but it remains #1 in terms of total daily incidence.
The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard reported 4.38 million US cases and 149,783 deaths as of 12:45pm on July 29.
US COVID-19 STIMULUS BILL Republican leadership in the US Senate unveiled their version of a “Phase 5” COVID-19 economic stimulus package Monday afternoon. The draft bill, titled the HEALS Act, includes approximately US$1 trillion in funding to address a variety of financial and economic needs for both individuals and businesses. There appear to be major differences between the HEALS Act and the HEROES Act that was drafted by Democrat leadership and passed by the House of Representatives several weeks ago. One major area of agreement between the two bills appears to be a second direct stimulus payment to individuals. Both bills include a US$1,200 payment to individuals making up to $75,000 per year (or US$2,400 for married couples making US$150,000 or less). Beyond that measure, however, the rest of the bill will require substantial negotiations to compromise on funding for the Paycheck Protection Program, unemployment insurance, state and local governments, schools and healthcare systems, student loans, and other priorities.
According to multiple reports, including by The Washington Post, the draft Republican bill includes funding for several major Department of Defense (DOD) programs and a new FBI building. The DOD funding includes ships, aircraft, and other weapons systems—including the Expeditionary Fast Transport amphibious cargo ship and F-35 fighter aircraft—as well as reimbursements for military contractors that kept workers employed while work was suspended due to COVID-19. Reportedly, the weapons systems and programs funded under the bill include some that were defunded when US President Donald Trump repurposed DOD funding to construct portions of a wall along the US-Mexico border. Some Democrats and others have already expressed opposition to including military funding in the COVID-19 bill, particularly to supplement funds used to construct the border wall.
As we have discussed previously, the provisions included in both the HEROES Act and HEALS Act will inevitably change as negotiations proceed, and the final form and scope of a Phase 5 COVID-19 emergency funding bill remains uncertain.
CALL FOR US CDC TO REGAIN CONTROL OVER COVID-19 REPORTING Yesterday, the Attorneys General from 22 states issued a letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar calling on him to rescind a recent directive that shifts the responsibility for COVID-19 reporting from the CDC to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The letter urges Secretary Azar to “restore the CDC to its rightful role as the primary repository for and source of information about the nation’s public health data” and notes that the decision to “bypass the CDC” erodes trust in COVID-19 data, hinders state and local response efforts, and risks millions of lives. The authors argue that any need to improve data reporting and analysis should be addressed by adapting existing CDC systems, including through the use of US$500 million designated by the CARES Act to update CDC data collection and reporting systems. They contend that the new mechanism “circumvent[s] our nation’s top public health experts.” According to the letter, the new data reporting system is operated by private contractors rather than health experts employed by federal health agencies, and it separates data reported by hospitals from other sources, including nursing homes and other long-term care facilities.
MALNUTRITION, COVID-19 & HUMANITARIAN AID The Lancet recently published a call to action co-authored by the directors of UNICEF, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Food Programme, and the WHO. The statement addresses the growing threat of childhood malnutrition due to downstream effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated response policies and operations, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The statement listed 5 “urgent actions” to support children's right to adequate nutrition during the pandemic. Specifically, the authors call on national governments and private donors to support efforts to ensure access to nutritious, safe, and affordable diets; maternal and child health; early detection and treatment for child wasting; nutritious school meals for vulnerable children; and safe access to food and essential services. These priorities must be integrated more completely into the COVID-19 response.
MULTILATERALISM IN AFRICA The Washington Post published an article outlining multilateral efforts to combat COVID-19 in Africa. African countries have promoted collaborative, multilateral efforts to share physical, educational, and public health resources in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19 across the continent, in contrast to many other countries around the world that have increased restrictions on travel, immigration, and border control policies. Leaders in Africa quickly recognized that existing public health and healthcare infrastructure and supply limitations in Africa placed many countries at elevated risk for severe COVID-19 epidemics.
The focus on multilateral approaches “reflects the rise of political ownership and accountability” among national and regional leaders, and the engagement of stakeholders across multiple countries stemmed from the need to quickly identify and mobilize critical resources, particularly at a time when international humanitarian aid and other international assistance dwindled. Additionally, leadership by intergovernmental organizations like the Africa CDC has been critical to organizing coordinating response activities across the continent, including allocating and distributing resources such as medical and testing supplies.
NAVAJO NATION As we have covered previously, the Navajo Nation, which spans 4 states in the western US, was severely affected early in the US COVID-19 epidemic. The Navajo Nation is currently reporting 10,364 cumulative cases, which represents a third of all COVID-19 cases reported by the Indian Health Service. With 3,500 cumulative cases per 100,000 population, the Navajo Nation has been more severely affected than any US state, and its cumulative per capita incidence is 50% higher than the leading state (Louisiana with 2,389 cases per 100,000 population). The Navajo Nation was able to flatten the curve, and its epidemic peaked in mid-May.
The Navajo face a variety of risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease and death, including high rates of underlying health conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, and limited access to health care and other services. These factors have contributed to elevated mortality among Navajo populations. For example, the Navajo Nation in New Mexico accounts for 57% of the state’s total COVID-19 deaths, despite only representing 9% of the population.
In response to the early surge in transmission, the Navajo Nation implemented a “lockdown” and mandated mask use on tribal and issued “travel advisories against leaving the Navajo Nation.” Tribal leadership have also encouraged Navajo living outside of reservations to return, particularly in states that have not yet implemented protective measures like mandatory mask use, such as Arizona. These measures have enabled Navajo Nation to bring its COVID-19 epidemic under control, decreasing daily incidence from approximately 220 new cases per day in mid-May to fewer than 45 today. Vox published an interview with Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez that addresses the Navajo COVID-19 response and ongoing risks and challenges.
MADAGASCAR Hospitals in Madagascar are reportedly exceeding capacity due to a recent surge in COVID-19, and some hospitals are only admitting severe patients in order to make the most efficient use of limited beds and supplies. According to several media reports, Madagascar’s Minister of Health recently published an open letter requesting supplies and equipment to support overwhelmed health systems, but the Madagascar government “disavowed” the request. Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina, reinstituted a lockdown in central Madagascar in early July in response to increased transmission, but the country’s epidemic continues to accelerate. Madagascar has reported more than 10,000 total COVID-19 cases and nearly 100 deaths, and its daily incidence has doubled since July 8.
NICARAGUA Last week, Science published a letter criticizing the COVID-19 response within Nicaragua. The authors, including one from Nicaragua, described Nicaragua’s response as “disastrous,” following several decisions to forgo recommended policies adopted by other South American countries, including prohibitions on mass gatherings, closing schools and businesses, and robust screening and disease surveillance at border crossings and other points of entry. The authors indicate that neighboring countries have asked PAHO to pressure Nicaragua’s government leadership to more substantively address the disease risk.
Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal reported that doctors in the country who have organized to disseminate COVID-19 information to the public have lost their jobs, exacerbating the risk of COVID-19 and damaging the health care system. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega has reportedly stated that the COVID-19 epidemic is not as severe as reported and that it has not affected health systems or other sectors. Nicaragua often reports to the WHO weekly instead daily, but it has reported a total of 3,004 total cases and 108 deaths. While these numbers are relatively low, they are among the highest in Central America on a per capita basis. The authors of the Science letter state Nicaragua’s COVID-19 mortality as nearly 350 deaths per million population; however, other sources indicate that it is much lower (17.51 deaths per million population). We were unable to identify an official government report from a Nicaraguan health agency, so it is difficult to determine the actual scale of the country’s epidemic.
CRISIS STANDARDS OF CARE STAFFING GUIDANCE The US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) published a report outlining updated considerations for staffing needs while implementing crisis standards of care during the COVID-19 response. As the US battles a surge in COVID-19, particularly in areas of the country that were not severely affected early in the US epidemic, reports continue of hospitals and health systems struggling to meet COVID-19 patient demand. One option for managing major patient surge is to alter the existing standards of care to allow clinicians to treat more patients with fewer resources.
This NASEM report specifically addresses staffing issues in order to implement crisis standards of care in a safe and appropriate manner. The report includes recommendations regarding the transfer of staff between facilities and affected geographic areas, adjusting staff-to-patient ratios, utilizing external temporary or contracted personnel to supplement facility staffing, and changing personnel’s duties and responsibilities. Additionally, updated staffing models should address hazard pay or compensation; ensure appropriate leave or other time off for a variety of issues, including healthcare and family needs; and child care services to support increased personnel availability. In particular, the report highlights the demand for personnel with specialized training or skills during the COVID-19 response, including with respect to mechanical ventilation, and the importance of providing guidance and support regarding potential SARS-CoV-2 exposures and infections among healthcare workers and other personnel. This report builds on analysis and recommendations that the committee published in March.
RESETTING THE US RESPONSE As the US rapidly approaches 5 million COVID-19 cases and 150,000 deaths, it is clear that changes to the national response plan are needed. Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security published areport outlining key steps to “reset” the US response and put the country on a better path toward effectively combating COVID-19. Operational recommendations include encouraging or, “when appropriate,” mandating nonpharmaceutical interventions, including mask use; reinstituting social distancing restrictions in hard-hit areas where health systems are stressed, including “stay at home” orders and prohibitions on large gatherings and other high-risk activities; and conducting and publishing epidemiological analysis, including for case investigations and contact tracing. Additionally, the report outlines recommendations to provide necessary infrastructure and support ongoing research and operational efforts, including scaling up supply chains for personal protective equipment and testing, improving distribution and allocation systems, conducting rapid research to address emerging information needs, and identifying and disseminating best practices for response operations and policies. Finally, the authors highlight the importance of preparing for the production, distribution, and administration of a future vaccine, including effective community engagement efforts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)