September 18: University of Washington COVID-19 Projections

This is a work in Progress

The September 3 & 18 death projections are through January1, 2021.

The August 6-27 projections are through December 1. 2020

The July 7-30 are through November 1, 2020.

The September 3 projections are available from:  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

                         July 7----July 14-----JULY 22------July 30—August 6*—August 21*—August 27*—September 3—September 18

Most states as well as the US in general have lower death projections.

United States 208,255,  224,546, 219,864,  230,822,  295,011, 309,918; 317,312, 410,451, NOW 378,321   Population 331.00 million  629.17 per million 678.39 per million, 664.24 per million, 697.35 per million, 891.17 per million, 936.3 per million, 958.65 per million; 1240.03 per million, NOW 1142.96 per million

Georgia  3,857  deaths; 4736;  7336; 10,278, 11,288, 10.805, 12,410,13,871, NOW 12.813 Population 3.99 million   966.67 per million ; 1186 .97 per million;1838.60 per million; 2575.94 per million; 2829.07 per million; 2708.02 per million; 3110.28 per million; 3476.44 per million, NOW 3211.28 per million

New York  32,221 deaths; 35,379; 35,039; 34,423;  33,945; 32,743,  33,960;41,653, NOW 43,857  Population 18.8 million  1713.88 per million; 1881.86 per million; 1863.78 per million; 1836.33 per million;  1805.59 per million; 1741.65 per million;1806.38 per million; 2215.59 per million, NOW 2332.82 per million

Massachusetts  12,906 deaths; 10,121 deaths ; 9970;   9647;  10,314; 12.295, 12,410;  14,175, NOW 13,743   Population 6.7 million  1926.27 per million 1510.60 per million; 1488.06 per million;  1439.85 per million; 1539.40 per million; 1835.07 per million;1852.24 per million; 2115.67 per million, NOW 2051.19 per million

Louisiana   4,643 deaths; 5,167; 4955; 6401; 7901; 7840; 7993;  8920, NOW 8042  Population 4.6 million  1009.35  per million; 1123.26 per million; 1077.17 per million; 1391.52 per million;1717.61 per million; 1704.35 per million; 1737.61 per million; 1939.13 per million, NOW 1748.26 per million

Connecticut  4,692  deaths; 4,456;  4750;  4844;  5179; 4675; 4626; 5060, NOW 6188 deaths  Population  3.7 million   1268.11 per million; 1204.32 per million;1283.78 per million;  1309.19 per million; 1399.73 per million; 1263.52 per million; 1250.27 per million; 1367.57 per million, NOW 1672.43 per million

District of Columbia  666 deaths; 681 ; 694 ;  646; 605; 837;  935;  1038, NOW 1011 Population  .706 million  943.34 per million; 964.59 per million; 983.00 per million; 915.01 per million;  856.94 per million; 1185.55 per million; 1324.36 per million; 1470.25 per million, NOW 1432.01 per million

South Carolina 242 deaths; 4,556; 3186;  3232; 3672; 4724; 5023;  6764, NOW 6472   Population 5.0 million  48.4 per million; 911.20 per million;  637.2 per million;646.4 per million; 734.40 per million; 944.8 per million; 1004.60 per million; 1352.80 per million, NOW 1294.40 per million

Arizona  5,553 deaths; 5,177;  5664;7946;  6840; 9562; 7148;  8766, NOW 9388   Population 7.29 million  761.73 per million ;710.15 per million;  776.95 per million: 1089.97 per million; 938.27 per million.; 1311.66 per million; 980.52 per million;  1202.47 per million, NOW 1287.79 per million

Maryland  3,880 deaths ; 4,278;  4194;  4026; 5174;  5301; 4404; 7997, NOW 7414 Population 6.0 million  646.67  per million; 713.00 per million; 699.0 per million;  671.0 per million;  862.34 per million; 883.5 per million; 734 per million;1332.84 per million, NOW 1235.67 per million,

Florida   17,477 deaths;19,285; 18,154,  16,318; 19,358; 21,174; 24,532;  26,251, NOW 26,472   Population 21.47 million  814.01 per million; 893.23 per million; 845.55 per million; 760.04 per million; 901.63 per million;  986.21 per million;1142.63 per million; 1222.68 per million, NOW 1232.98 per million

Illinois 8,907 deaths; 8,351;  8472 ;  8280;  9995; 11,071,15,058;  18,068, NOW 15,523 Population 12.63 million  705.23 per million; 657.56 per million; 772.43 per million;  655.58 per million;  791.37 per million; 876.56 per million, 1192.24 per million;  1430.56 per million, NOW 1229.06 per million

Pennsylvania  9,999 deaths; 8,431; 8028;  8350; 8859; 14,998; 14,604;14,604;  16,732, NOW 14,703   Population 12.7 million  787.32 per million; 663.86 per million; 632.13 per million;657.48 per million;  697.56 per million; 1180.94 per million;  1317.48 per million, NOW 1157.72 per million

California 16,827 deaths;  21,264; 19,572;  16,515;  32,692; 41,110; 37,645; 49,602, NOW 43,856   Population 39.78 million  423.00 per million;  534.54 per million;492.01 per million;  415.16 per million; 821.82 per million; 1033.43 per million; 1497.52 per million; 1246.91 per million, NOW 1102.46 per million

Iowa  841 deaths;  1,225; 1813,1700; 2163 2856; 3077;  3863. NOW 3421  Population 3.17 million  265.30 per million; 386.44 per million; 571.93 per million;  536.28 per million;  682.34 per million; 900.95 per million; 970.66 per million;  1218.61 per million, NOW 1079.18 per million

Virginia 5,190 deaths ;  4,881;  2643; 2289;  5842; 2828; 2940; NOW 9780, NOW 8333  Population 8.63 million  601.39  per million ;565.59 per million; 306.26 per million:  265.24 per million; 676.94 per million; 327.69 per million; 340.67 per million; NOW 1133.26 per million

Texas    13,450 deaths;18,675;  18,812; 24,557; 27,435; 25.532; 27,194; NOW 34,319, NOW 29,319    Population 29.90 million  449.83 per million; 624.58 per million; 629.16 per million; 921.30 per million; 917.56 per million; 853.91 per million; 909.50 per million; NOW 1147.79 per million

Arkansas 724 deaths;  617, 895; 833; 2234; 2364;  2406; NOW 3268, NOW 3106    Population 3.018 million  239.89 per million 204.44 per million; 293.55 per million;   276.01 per million ; 740.23 per million; 783.30 per million; 797.22 per million; NOW 1082.84 per million

Ohio  5,712  deaths;4,545;  3900;  5694; 9041; 6046; 7564; NOW 11,975, NOW 11,121  Population 11.73 million  486.96 per million; 387.47 per million; 332.48 per million; 485.42 per million; 770.76 per million; 515.43 per million; 644.84 per million; NOW 1020.89 per million

Missouri  5436 deaths; 3068;  5231; NOW 5933, NOW 5388 Population 6.137 million; 885.77 per million; 499.92 per million, 852.37 per million; NOW 966.76 per million

Oklahoma  587  deaths;1,029 ; 1533; 1484;   2967, 2058; 3055; NOW 3589, NOW 2006 Population 4.0 million  146.75 per million 257.23 per million; 383.25 per million; 371.24 per million; 741.75 per million; 514.5 per million; 763.75 per million; NOW 897.25 per million

Kansas 632 deaths ; 410;  412; 588; 2245; 1277; 994; NOW 2453, NOW 3086  Population  2.77 million  228.16 per million 148.01 per million; 148.74 per million;  212.27 per million;  810.47 per million; 461.01 per million; 358.84 per million; NOW 885.56 per million

North Dakota 215 deaths; 371; 491; NOW 618, NOW 616 Population .762 million 282.15 per million;486.88 per million; 644.36 per million; NOW 811.02 per million

Oregon  471 deaths; 605;  683;  634; 2967; 2408; 2395, NOW 3457, NOW 1625    Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million; 147.44 per million; 690.0 per million; 560.0 per million; 556.98 per million; NOW 803.95 per million

Wisconsin  1,410 deaths;  992; 1041; 2030; 3708 ;1775; 2340; NOW 4603, NOW 4362 Population 5.82 million  242,27 per million 170.45 per million; 178.87 per million; 348.80 per million; 637.11 per million ; 304.98 per million; 402.06 per million; NOW 790.89 per million

Colorado  1937 deaths;  2,032; 2774:  2665; 5179; 2967; 2395; NOW 4417,NOW 4253  Population 5.8 million  333.97 per million; 478.28 per million; NOW 459.48 per million; 892.93 per million’ 511.55 per million; 412.93 per million; NOW 761.55 per million

Washington  2,510 deaths; 3,170; 3303; 2178; 5078; 5040; 4410; NOW 5400. NOW 4585  Population 7.17 million  325.98 per million ;442.112 per million; 450.67 per million;  303.77 per million; 708.23 per million; 702.93 per million;615.06 per million; NOW 753.14 per million

South Dakota 254 deaths; 281; 291; NOW 516, NOW 535 Population .885 million 287.01 per million;317.51 per million; 328.81 per million; NOW 583.05 per million

Idaho  120 deaths; 559; 513; 365;  916, 983: 1373; NOW 1641, NOW 1254 Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million;147.44 per million;  213.02 per million; 228.60 per million; 319.30 per million; NOW 381.63 per million

DEATHS

How many overall deaths will there be?

Our model is updated to account for new data and information, and the estimates may change as a result. For the latest estimate, visit our COVID-19 projections tool.

Why do your results show a wide range in the forecast for deaths?

Larger uncertainty intervals – or the range within which estimated deaths are likely to fall – can occur because of limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data. A smaller range generally reflects extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources.

Why did the estimates for my location change?

To learn more, please visit our update page.

Why is the peak for daily deaths still forecast in the future when it looks like it has already occurred in my location?

The date of peak daily deaths depends on the model’s projections. If the model projects that the number of daily deaths will continue to rise, then the peak will be projected for a future date. It is important to note that the data on daily deaths may fluctuate dramatically due to irregularities in reporting. Health care workers are extremely busy caring for COVID-19 patients, so they may fall behind on reporting deaths. Once health care workers catch up on their reporting, however, it may appear as though there has been a spike in daily deaths.

Why are the “observed deaths” shown in your results for my location different from what is shown on the government’s official page?

For deaths, we primarily use the COVID-19 death data aggregated by the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository (see "Where does IHME obtain its data?"). The JHU repository uses Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), which means new days start at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The JHU counts may differ slightly from local government data as a result of these timing differences. Also, the JHU repository is not necessarily synchronized to the update schedule of every location, so there may be a short lag that is reflected in a difference between our recorded daily deaths in a given location and those ultimately reported on government websites. Although this will be corrected when we update our analysis, in some cases, these differences may persist for several days.

Yet another reason why observed deaths may differ from numbers reported by governments is due to data processing. To address irregularities in the daily death data, we average data from the last three days to create a smooth version. To see the death data exactly as it is reported, 1) click the “Chart settings” icon in the upper right corner of the chart, and 2) turn off “Smoothed data.”

There are reports of deaths being under-reported in places. How does this impact your forecast?

We are learning that not all deaths due to COVID-19 that occur at home or in nursing homes have been attributed to COVID-19. As awareness increases, the number of reported deaths is growing, with some locations now reporting presumptive COVID-19 deaths. Another challenge is that COVID-19 death data fluctuate substantially each day, with some locations reporting more deaths on Tuesdays than on Sundays and Mondays. We believe this variation is due to data reporting practices instead of actual death patterns. To mitigate the impact of inconsistent reporting on our forecasts, our published predictions are based on averaging multiple iterations of projections. As new data emerges, we incorporate it into our model, and our projections will shift up or down in response to the data. To learn more, see our estimation updates.

For Ecuador and Peru in particular, the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 appears to be improbably low. Instead of using reported COVID-19 deaths for these countries, we are approximating deaths from COVID-19. To approximate COVID-19 deaths, we used the number of excess deaths occurring in Ecuador and Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic and observations from other countries where we had weekly reports of total deaths and high-quality data on COVID-19 deaths.

September 19: 2529 New COVID 19 Cases in Illinois

Illinois health officials report 2,529 new cases of COVID-19; state surpasses 5 million tests

NEWS

by: WGN Web Desk

Posted: Sep 19, 2020 / 12:44 PM CDT / Updated: Sep 19, 2020 / 06:30 PM CDT

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CHICAGO – The Illinois Department of Public Health reported 2,529 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Illinois, including 25 additional confirmed deaths. The state also reported that more than 5 million COVID-19 tests have been given in Illinois.

The deaths were reported in the following counties:

• Bureau County: 1 female 50s
• Cook County: 1 male 50s, 2 females 60s, 1 male 60s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
• Edgar County: 1 female 70s, 1 female 80s
• Greene County: 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
• LaSalle County: 1 male 50s
• Macon County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 90s
• Macoupin County: 1 female 70s
• Montgomery County: 1 male 80s
• Rock Island County: 1 female 70s
• St. Clair County: 1 female 70s
• Tazewell County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
• Warren County: 1 male 80s
• Will County: 1 female 70s, 1 male 80s

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 272,856 cases, including 8,436 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois.

The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from Sept. 12 – Sept. 18 is 3.5%. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 74,286 specimens for a total of 5,057,142.

As of Friday night, 1,469 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19.  Of those, 326 patients were in the ICU and 141 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.  

Only the Feds are deferring withholding?

Illinois won’t take part in Trump’s payroll tax deferral program

Comptroller Susana Mendoza, pictured in a file photo in August 2019, said this week that the state will not participate in a payroll tax deferral program created by President Donald Trump. (Capitol News Illinois file photo)

Thursday, September 17, 2020

62,000 state employees will see no change in paychecks

By PETER HANCOCK
Capitol News Illinois
phancock@capitolnewsillinois.com

SPRINGFIELD – Illinois plans to continue withholding federal payroll taxes on behalf of its 62,000 employees despite a program President Trump launched in August that allows workers to defer paying those taxes through the end of the year.

“I'm not supporting a deferral that would double workers taxes after January and put Social Security further at risk. I mean, that's essentially what this would do,” Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza said during an interview Thursday.

Trump announced the program in a memorandum Aug. 8. It applies to the 6.2 percent tax that employers withhold for their employee’s Social Security benefits. It often appears on pay stubs as FICA – the Federal Insurance Contributions Act. The program is available for employees who earn less than $104,000 per year.

The intent is to temporarily boost workers’ income during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the taxes that would be deferred would have to be repaid after Jan. 1. Then, the employee’s withholding would double to 12.4 percent until the amount of taxes that were deferred is repaid.

So far, the only major employers taking part in the program is the federal government, Mendoza said. Most states and many large private-sector employers have publicly stated that they will not take part.

Mendoza said Gov. JB Pritzker has already announced that the agencies under his purview will not take part in the program, nor will any of the other state constitutional officers – secretary of state, state treasurer and attorney general.

“Just on its face, as a policy, to me it seemed really bad policy to essentially tell people that they can have a little bit of money on the front end and then pay twice as much on the back end and be prepared to do so,” Mendoza said.

“I reached out to the governor early on to let them know my position, that we would not be doing it for any of our employees, and of course recommended that no one do it because I think it's terrible policy,” she said. “And it's really kind of a cruel hoax. I mean, the President's essentially dangling this carrot in front of people. And I would say, this is that perfect scenario where all that glitters is not gold.”

According to an analysis by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a worker earning $50,000 a year would see a temporary increase of $119.23 in each two-week pay period. But at the end of the year, that person would owe $1,073.08 in deferred taxes.

Mendoza said she believes the program was devised to boost Trump’s re-election campaign.

“I mean, it couldn't be any clearer,” she said. “And the fact that the President (this) week turned around and said that … if he gets reelected, he will forgive the payroll deferral and people wouldn't have to pay it back. I mean, to me, that's just a clear attempt to buy votes, he does not have the legal authority to forgive the debt. And he doesn't tell people that even if he could – which thankfully he does not – if he did, he'd be doing it at the expense of bankrupting Social Security, which millions of Americans rely on.”

Meanwhile, Mendoza said, the bigger threat to the economy is the possibility that Congress will not approve an aid package to help state and local governments that have seen precipitous declines in revenue due to the recession brought on by the pandemic, something Pritzker also warned about earlier this week.

Preparing for what he called a “nightmare scenario” if Congress fails to pass an aid package, Pritzker said he has asked state agency heads to make plans for a 5-percent budget cut in the current fiscal, which ends June 30, 2021, and a 10-percent cut for the following fiscal year.

The Democratic-controlled U.S. House passed such a bill in May, but it has languished in the Republican-controlled Senate where GOP leaders have argued that the federal government shouldn’t be asked to bail out states that were already in financial trouble before the COVID-19 pandemic.

“We're not asking for the government to come in and bail us out for the self-inflicted wounds of the past,” Mendoza said. “We were on our way to fixing that and to getting back on stable fiscal footing. But without a doubt, the federal government has an obligation to step up for all states in the nation, and to help us supplement for the lost income directly related to COVID-19.”

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government and distributed to more than 400 newspapers statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick

Above is from:  https://capitolnewsillinois.com/NEWS/illinois-wont-take-part-in-trumps-payroll-tax-deferral-program