In the last weeks the IHME model has had some major swings in death projections for a number of states. The newest projection are through October 1 versus August 1
PROJECTION:
United States of America: (179,106 6-24-2020) (135,109 5-29-2020) (131,967 5-27-2020) (143,357 5-18-2020) (147,040 5-12-2020) (137,184 5-10-2020) (134,475 4-5-2020) (74,073 2-27-2020) (67,641 4-22-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-13-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020) (60,415 4-8-2020) (81,766 4-5-2020) (93,531 4-4-2020) (93,765 4-1-2020) Deaths
>Population 331 Millions (2020) 408.18 per million NOW 541.11
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Arizona (5687 6-24-2020) (2665 5-29-2020) (4335 5-27-2020) (6,174 5-18-2020) (2,871 5-12-2020) (2987 5-10-2020) (1,043 5-4-2020)
> 7.279 millions (2019) 366.12 per million 38.5% decrease—NOW 781.29 per million—113.40% increase
California (11.631 6-24-2020) (12,951 5-29-2020) (7558 5-27-2020) (6,842 5-18-2020) (5,832 5-12-2020) (6,086 5-10-2020) (4,666 5-4-2020) (2,017 4-27-2020) (1719 4-22-2020) ( 1,658 4-15-2020) (1,483 4-13-2020)(1616 4-10-2020) (1,611 4-8-2020) (1,783 4-5-2020) (5,068 4-3-2020) (5,161 4-1-2020)
>39.56 millions (2018) 327.38 per million 71.4% increase—NOW 294.00 per million –10.19% decrease
Florida (15,393 6-24-2020) (3707 5-29-2020) (3899 5-27-2020) (4,721 5-18-2020) (5,819 5-12-2020)(3,971 5-4-2020) (1,914 4-27-2020) (1,620 4-22-2020) (1,363 4-15-2020) (4,748 4-13-2020) (3999 4-10-2020) (4,357 deaths 4-8-2020) (6770 4-5-2020) (6,897 4-3-2022)(6,937 4-1-2020)
>Population 21.3 million (2018) 174.04 per million –NOW 722.68 per million – 315.24% increase
Illinois: (8487 6-24-2020) (6371 5-29-2020) (7628 5-27-2020) (8,781 5-18-2020) (7830 5-12-2020) (7395 5-10-2020) (6,353 5-4-2020) (2316 4-27-2020) (2138 4-22-2020) (2,259 4-15-2020) (1,248 4-13-2020) (777 4-10-2020) (1,588 deaths 4-8-2020) (3,629 4-5-2020)(3,386 4-3-2020) (2786 4-1-2020)
>12.74 million (2018) 500.08 per million 16.49% decrease-- NOW 666.17 per million—33.21% increase
Iowa (874 6-24-2020) (1040 5-29-2020) (1146 5-27-2020) (1043 5-18-2020) (710 5-12-2020) (915 5-10-2020)
>Population: 3.155 million 329.64 per million-- NOW 277.07 per million—74.04% decrease
Louisiana (4135 6-24-2020 (2947 5-29-2020) (3119 5-27-2020) (3,141 5-18-2020) (3169 5-12-2020) (3,232 5-10-2020) (2,822 5-4-2020) (2,066 4-27-2020) (1,780 4-22-2020) (1,685 4-15-2020) (1,141 4-13-2020) (1,125 4-10-2020) (946 deaths 4-8-2020) 746 4-5-2020
>4.6 million (2018) 640.65 per million—NOW 898.91 per million—40.31% increase
Massachusetts (8802 6-24-2020) (9003 5-29-2020) (8232 5-27-2020) (8,949 5-18-2020) (9,629 5-12-2020) (7545 5-10-2020) (7,697 5-4-2020) (5,498 4-27-2020) (4,242 4-22-2020) (3,236 4-15-2020) (8,219 4-13-2020) (6,739 4-10-2020) (5,625 4-8-2020) 8,254 deaths
>6.9 million (2018) 1304.78 per million—NOW 1275.65 per million
Michigan (6534 6-24-2020) (5986 5-29-2020) (5801 5-27-2020) (6,043 5-18-2020) (6,621 5-12-2020) (6,217 5-10-2020) (7,080 5-4-2020) (3,785 4-27-2020)
> 9.987 million (2019) 599.38 per million—NOW 654.25 per million
MINNESOTA (1797 6-24-2020) (1712 5-29-2020)(1611 5-27-2020) (1,814 5-18-2020) (2,049 5-12-2020) (2,073 5-10-2020) (2,183 5-4-2020) (688 4-27-2020) (360 4-22-2020) (195 4-15-2020) (656 4-13-2020) 456 deaths 4-8-2020
>5.6 million (2018) 305.71 per million NOW 320.89 per million
MISSOURI (2778 6-24-2020) (996 5-29-2020) (1022 5-27-2020) (1,506 5-18-2020) (2348 5-12-2020)
>6.137million 162.29 per million—NOW 452.66 per million—178.92% increase
NEBRASKA (529 6-24-2020) (475 5-29-2020) (331 5-27-2020) (243 5-18-2020) (184 5-12-2020) (218 5-10-2020) (380 5-4-2020) (463 4-27-2020) (347 4-22-2020)
>1.9346 million 245.53 per million 43.5% increase—NOW 273.44 per million
New York (31,837 6-24-2020) 31,295 5-29-2020) (30,823 5-27-2020) (32,135 5-18-2020) (34,068 5-12-2020)(31,620 5-10-2020) (32,132 5-4-2020) (23,930 4-27-2020) (23,232 4-22-2020) (21,812 4-15-2020) (14,542 4-13-2020) (13,442 4-10-2020) (13,307 death 4-8-2020) (15,618 4-5-2020) (16,261 4-3-2020) (16,090 4-1-2020)
>19.54 million (2018) 1601.59 per million—NOW 1629.32 per million
Ohio: (3781 6-24-2020) (3227 5-29-2020) (3106 5-27-2020) (2,963 5-18-2020) (2,844 5-12-2020) (2,960 5-10-2020) (2,552 5-4-2020) (853 4-27-2020) (808 4-4-22-2020) (716 4-15-2020) (482 4-13-2020) (489 4-10-2020) (489 4-8-2020) 544
>11.69 million (2018) 276.05 per million—NOW 323.44 per million
Pennsylvania (7799 6-24-2020) (6418 5-29-2020) (7679 5-27-2020) ( 9623 5-18-2020) (12,420 5-12-2020) (10,742 5-10-2020) (8,607 5-4-2020) (2596 4-27-2020) (2,770 4-22-2020) (1,707 4-15-2020) (2,005 4-13-2020)
>12.8 million (2019) 599.92 per million 16.42% decrease also a 20.2% decrease from 5-18/5-27—NOW 609.30 per million --21.52% increase
Texas (13,736 6-24-2020) (2025 5-29-2020) (2985 5-27-2020) (3,710 5-18-2020) (3,092 5-12-2020) (2,567 5-10-2020) (3,632 5-4-2020) (1,656 4-27-2020) (1,241 4-22-2020) (957 4-15-2020) (2,704 4-13-2020) (2,350 4-10-2020) (2,042 4-8-2020) (2,025 4-5-2020)
>28.7 million (2018) 104.01 per million 32.16 % decrease also a 19.54% decrease 5-18/5-27—NOW 478.61 per million—578.32% increase
Virginia (1788 6-24-2020) (2576 5-29-2020) (1956 5-27-2020) (1,980 5-18-2020) (1,944 5-12-2020) (1,396 5-10-2020) (1,198 5-4-2020) (684 4-27-2020) (762 4-22-2020) (763 4-15-2020)
> 8.536 million 301.78 per million 31.7% increase NOW 209.47 per million—30.59% decrease
Washington: (1917 6-24-2020) (1200 5-29-2020) (1176 5-27-2020) (1,262 5-18-2020) (1,193 5-12-2020) (1,120 5-10-2020) (1,159 5-4-2020) (841 4-27-2020) (813 4-22-2020) (694 4-15-2020) (855 4-13-2020) (842 4-10-2020) (700 4-8-2020) (632 4-5-2020) (978 4-3-2020) (1,233 4-1-2020)
>7.536 (2018) 159.24 per million –NOW 254.38 per million—59.75% increase
Wisconsin: (1076 6-24-2020) (799 5-29-2020) (697 5-27-2020) (734 5-18-202) (673 5-10-2020) (717 5-4-2020) (331 4-27-2020) (356 4-22-2020) (302 4-15-2020) (339 4-13-2020) (357 4-10-2020) (424 4-8-2020) (644 deaths 4-5-2020) (951 4-3-2020) (926 4-1-2020)
>5.814 Million (2018) 137.43 per million 14.63% increase—NOW 185.07 per million—34.67% increase
Washington DC (668 6-24-2020)
>.705 million 947.52 per million
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