Poll: Gov. Bruce Rauner's Support Slumps | David Ormsby

 

Since Governor Bruce Rauner unleashed his nearly $2 million TV Ad buy two weeks ago, political and media pundits have been almost exclusively focused on diagnosing the 30-second spot's 20-second attack of House Speaker Michael Madigan.
What has escaped any substantive analysis is the ad's 10-second promotion of Rauner.
"The ads are not very helpful to the [budget] negotiations," said Paul Simon Public Policy Institute executive director David Yepsen on WGN's "Sunday Spin" last weekend to host Rick Pearson. "Republicans have been attacking Mike Madigan for years hoping to rub off on Democratic legislators and it hasn't seemed to work."
Some version of Yepsen's comments have been repeatedly echoed by political and media insiders throughout the last couple weeks.
But the 10-seconds of Rauner's self-promotional message has been widely overlooked.
"Change in Springfield isn't easy. But you didn't send me here to do what's easy. With your help, I'm goin' to keep fightin' to grow our economy, and fix our broken state government," Rauner says in the spot.
The Rauner ad may be as much about boosting Rauner's political standing as undermining Madigan's.
Why?
The governor's job approval rating in multiple key legislative districts has fallen - and in some cases sharply - in four legislative districts recently polled. A May 31 survey by The Illinois Observer's e-newsletter, The Insider in the Southern Illinois district of State Rep. John Bradley (D-Marion), for example, found that Rauner had an approval rating of just 29.3% and a disapproval of 43.9% or a net approval of minus 14.6 points despite winning Bradley's district over Governor Pat Quinn, 63-31%.
Now a new poll of 711 likely 2016 voters commissioned by The Illinois Observer reveals that Rauner's statewide job approval has fallen to a new low. Moreover, his approval ratings are now upside down.
The June 20 survey conducted by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry, the only polling firm which correctly predicted Rauner's five-point victory margin over Quinn, shows that just 35.7% of voters approve of the way the governor is handling his job while 46.7% disapprove or net approval of minus 11 points.
"Nearly half of respondents disapproved of the Governor's job performance," Ogden & Fry pollster Tom Swiss wrote in his polling memo.
Oof.
The poll, which had a +/- 3.75% margin of error, identified 17.6% were undecided.
In our last poll on April 22, after Rauner's first 100 days, the governor's approval stood at 40.6% and disapproval at 36.3%. In the last 60 days, as confrontation with Democrats has grown, the governor's approval has dropped by five points and disapproval has grown by 10.
After the governor's first 30 days, an Ogden & Fry survey conducted for The Illinois Observer pegged Rauner's approval at 43.1% and disapproval at 28.2% with 28.6% undecided.
At the start of his term, a January 14 We Ask America poll placed Rauner's approval rating at 52%, with just 23% disapproving and remainder undecided.
Rauner's supporters and, crucially, undecided voters have been shifting into the disapproval column.
Moreover, the governor's 35.7% job approval - after five days of statewide advertising promoting his "change in Springfield" message - is only a hair above the 34% registered by Quinn in a November 22-25, 2013 Public Policy Polling survey. Quinn did have a higher disapproval rating, 60%, to Rauner's 46.7%.
Meanwhile, despite the governor's sinking public support, 2016 likely voters have failed to embrace the role of Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan as a "check and balance" on the governor's agenda, according to the survey.
In response to the question "Do you approve or disapprove of Senate President John Cullerton and House Speaker Michael Madigan serving as a check and balance on Governor Bruce Rauner's agenda?", only 30.1% of voters approved and 41.5% disapproved and 28.5% are undecided, the poll says.
They're in a poor position as a PR counterweight.
In the battle over the current political stalemate, neither side holds a public opinion advantage with likely 2016 voters.
Still, the bigger fight - and likely point of Rauner's advertising - is over the 2016 election rather the FY 2016 budget.
"I would suggest that this a longer-term effort than just the current stalemate," Pearson said on Sunday.
Ditto Yepsen.
"I think it [Rauner's ad] may be part of a longer game that the governor and Republicans are playing," said Yepsen. "They want to make gains in the legislative elections in 2016. I'm assuming it's part of longer-term strategy to soften up the Democrats."
More than to "soften up Democrats," the Rauner ad campaign is also aimed at rebuilding the governor's public support. Otherwise, Rauner-funded legislative candidates in 2016 face the same dilemma that Democrats faced under the unpopular Quinn - being associated with a deeply unpopular governor.
There may lie the reason that Madigan has taken to referring to GOP lawmakers as "Rauner Republicans."
Stay tuned.

davidormsby@davidormsby.com

David also edits The Illinois Observer: The Insider, in which this article first appeared.

Follow David Ormsby on Twitter: www.twitter.com/DavidOrmsby

Above is from:  Poll: Gov. Bruce Rauner's Support Slumps | David Ormsby

An exclusive look at the draft schedule for Pope Francis’s U.S. trip this fall - The Washington Post

 

By Michelle Boorstein June 26 at 8:51 PM

Pope Francis will meet with inmates in a Philadelphia prison gym, poor migrants at a D.C. church — where he may serve them lunch — and disadvantaged youth at an East Harlem elementary school, according to a working itinerary of his visit this fall to the United States that was shared with The Washington Post.

The itinerary for the trip — the pope’s first to the United States — is not final. The Vatican is expected to release an official version in the next few days, and church officials Friday emphasized that even that version could change before Francis arrives Sept. 22. A person close to the U.S. planning process provided The Post with the itinerary, and a second person knowledgeable of the Vatican team confirmed multiple details of the document.

The working itinerary reveals the pope’s plans to speak repeatedly about the plight of immigrants, including at Our Lady Queen of Angels School and on Independence Mall park in Philadelphia before tens of thousands of people. The Argentine pope will often speak in Spanish during the trip, the itinerary shows, highlighting the origins of the Catholic Church’s first Latin American pontiff and the fact that the U.S. church is one-third Hispanic — and quickly becoming more so.

An exclusive look at the draft schedule for Pope Francis’s U.S. trip this fall - The Washington Post

Rauner: I'm vetoing the budget, offering Chicago pension relief - Chicago Tribune

The people of Illinois sent me to Springfield to end the era of unbalanced budgets and runaway debt. The road back to fiscal sanity starts today with my veto of a budget that is nearly $4 billion out of balance and includes no reform. We cannot accept the status quo of throwing more taxpayer money into a broke and broken system.

Rather than repeating the mistakes of the past — just kicking the can and raising taxes without real reform — now is our chance to transform Illinois to make it more competitive and compassionate.

 

 

The Rauner administration is proposing reforms that are reasonable and balanced, where many of the elements have been adopted by other states as well as the federal government. If Republicans and Democrats commit to working together, we can reach a bipartisan, common-sense agreement to reverse Illinois’ economic decline and set the stage for a bright economic future. In fact, we now have the opportunity not only to turn around Illinois but to put Chicago and its school system on a sustainable path.

Our plan builds on the compromise our administration offered before the regular legislative session concluded in May:

8

Job-creating economic reforms: To compete and grow, employers of all sizes have made it clear that Illinois needs true workers’ compensation reform to ensure that covered injuries actually occurred in the workplace and that medical payments be comparable to costs incurred under private health insurance.

Job creators have also asked that we enact meaningful lawsuit reform to restrict venue shopping, tie jury awards more directly to the responsible party and base payments on actual medical costs.

Property tax freeze: Our administration’s original legislation called for a permanent property tax freeze and the ability for local governments and school districts to control their costs on bidding and contracting. Now, in the spirit of compromise, we are willing to shorten the freeze portion of our proposal to two years.

cComments

• @edonley Look in the mirror at at "Taker". You work for and you vote for a scumbag like Mike Madigan and don't even see the evil of your ways. Here's a little definition of "Taker" for you: "You work and toil and earn bread, and I'll eat it." Is that...

  BizzzB

  at 8:01 AM June 26, 2015

At the request of Senate President John Cullerton, we are prepared to reform Illinois’ school funding formula as part of our tax-freeze package. A commission charged with rewriting the formula would report back by the end of 2016, with the current funding formula expiring six months later. As part of the compromise, we would allow the state to pay normal costs for Chicago teacher pensions, as it does for all other Illinois school districts, in exchange for sunsetting Chicago’s special block grants.

Term limits and redistricting reform: We are willing to compromise on timing by asking legislative leaders to publicly commit to giving term limits and redistricting reform a vote on the floors of both chambers sometime in the next 10 months, in time to get them on the 2016 ballot.

Comprehensive pension reform: Government pensions are among the largest cost drivers for state and local governments. We are willing to give local governments the short-term relief they have requested in exchange for a true, long-term solution.

We can deliver comprehensive pension reform by taking elements of President Cullerton’s consideration model, along with revised portions of our administration’s plan, to encourage many government employees to move into Tier 2 or a new Tier 3 program. In the compromise, we are willing to support Cook County’s pension reform plan and allow Chicago and downstate communities to implement longer, slower pension payment schedules.

Pension reform is not a prerequisite to signing the budget, but it should be completed this year. I’m committed to it, and I ask for the state’s legislative leaders to be equally committed.

These proposals reflect significant compromises by our administration. They help save Chicago from years of financial mismanagement while making sure local communities without Chicago’s clout get relief. These structural reforms also allow us to begin tax reform that marries our desire to be compassionate with our need to be competitive.

We will work day and night with members of the General Assembly to reform state government, modernize our tax code and enact a balanced budget as part of a truly comprehensive solution. Together, we can get this done. The people of Illinois deserve it.

Bruce Rauner is the governor of Illinois

Rauner: I'm vetoing the budget, offering Chicago pension relief - Chicago Tribune

Chicago officials reject Rauner's pension bone amid budget veto - Chicago Tribune#page=1#page=1

Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner sought Thursday to ratchet up pressure on Democratic lawmakers to approve his pro-business, anti-union agenda, vetoing the bulk of the state budget while dangling an offer of pension relief for Chicago and Cook County.

While Rauner argued that the pension help was part of an effort to compromise on his legislative wish list, the idea was quickly rejected by city officials who said it may do more harm than good. At the same time, Rauner refused to back away from some of his more controversial ideas, portending no easy resolution to the budget stalemate that could force government to start shutting down if a spending plan is not in place by July 1.

A day earlier, Rauner approved one bill that would free up money so elementary and high schools can open in the fall, though everything else — from paychecks for prison guards to home care for the elderly — is at risk.

 

The standoff boils down to this: Rauner has tried to leverage the budget-making process to push through sweeping changes that he argues will save money and boost jobs and the economy. Democrats who control the legislature have repeatedly rejected his ideas as attacks on the working class and instead pushed through a budget that's more than $3 billion short.

Rauner told lawmakers in his veto message that the financial plan sent to him by Democrats was "an unbalanced and therefore unconstitutional budget." But he has not offered an alternative beyond his initial budget proposal in February, which also would spend billions of dollars more than available revenue.

Instead, he doubled down on his demands Thursday, releasing a statement to the Tribune Editorial Board before the veto was made public that said "now is our chance to transform Illinois to make it more competitive and compassionate."

 

While Rauner billed his statement as a compromise offer to Democrats who have so far refused to grant him his "turnaround agenda," it did not appear that he had significantly altered his key demands.

"It isn't a compromise position," said Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, D-Chicago. "This is where he's been from the very beginning."

For example, a key area of disagreement between Rauner and Democrats has been his proposal to freeze property taxes in conjunction with removing requirements that local governments bargain with unions over wages and pay prevailing union salaries on construction projects. That proposal was recently brought for a series of votes in the House. Democrats advanced the property tax freeze idea but rejected the provisions to weaken union rights, while Republicans refused to participate and called the process a sham.

 

 

"Now, in the spirit of compromise, we are willing to shorten the (tax) freeze portion of our proposal to two years," Rauner wrote.

But a document distributed by the Rauner administration in April contradicts that claim. At the time, Rauner was seeking legislation that "freezes property taxes for two years," according to the document.

Rauner also continued to push for changes to the workers' compensation system and the rules governing civil lawsuits, even though Democrats have staged a number of votes and hearings to display their unwillingness to deliver the exact changes that he wants.

One area where Rauner might have backed down is his push to impose term limits on elected officials and to change the way legislative maps are drawn — efforts that could weaken Democrats' control of the General Assembly. In the past, Rauner has demanded passage of legislation on those items. On Wednesday, he wrote that he would settle for a public commitment from legislative leaders that they'll hold votes on the measures in the next 10 months.

What Rauner would be willing to offer in exchange was not clear. For months, he has held out the possibility that he would agree to tax hikes to help fill the budget hole if Democrats granted him his legislative wish list. But in vetoing the budget and reiterating his demands Thursday, he made no mention of new revenue to fill the shortfall.

Currie, who serves as House Speaker Michael Madigan's top deputy, said Rauner's offers would not sway Democrats.

"He's made these pitches, he's made them before," Currie said. "That he chooses to make them again less than a week away from the close of the budget year I think suggests a tin ear, but that doesn't mean it isn't an ear that can listen and learn."

In a new wrinkle, Rauner said that he would support a proposal for the state to pick up more of the tab for Chicago teacher pensions, an issued pushed by Mayor Rahm Emanuel as Chicago Public Schools faces a massive pension payment due Tuesday.

Emanuel administration officials said that the mayor was blindsided by Rauner's school pension proposal, adding that the Republican governor's solution would hurt CPS.

For much of the last year, Emanuel has railed against what he characterizes as an inequity in how Chicago's teacher pensions are funded compared with the rest of the school districts in Illinois. While Chicago taxpayers help fund the rest of the state's teacher pensions through state income taxes, they also fund Chicago's teacher pensions through city property taxes. Emanuel repeatedly has called for an end of that double payment to fund teacher pensions.

Rauner attempted to address the issue Thursday by offering to have the state pay for the district's so-called normal pension costs — the annual amount CPS owes to the pension fund, not including years' worth of missed payments that were signed off on by state lawmakers. In exchange for paying for those annual pension costs, Rauner said the state would stop funding block grants for the district as part of a new school funding formula he said would be put into effect by the end of 2016.

Emanuel officials, however, argued that the deal would cost CPS $400 million.

Kelley Quinn, a spokeswoman for Emanuel, said CPS currently receives $600 million in state block grants aimed at helping pay for programs that address the district's high percentage of children who have special needs or live in poverty. The district's current "normal" pension costs are $200 million.

"We're pleased that, for the first time, an Illinois governor has committed the state to addressing the pension inequity at Chicago Public Schools," Quinn said in a statement.

"Unfortunately, the Governor's proposal would actually further reduce CPS funding by taking away block grant funding, costing the system hundreds of millions of dollars."

Under Rauner's plan, CPS would be left to rely on a new state commission rewriting the education funding formula to make up the lost revenue.

Another drawback to Rauner's offer for CPS: It doesn't cover the district's annual costs to repay unfunded pension liabilities, which Quinn pegged at $500 million.

"For all the other districts in Illinois, the state doesn't just pay for the normal pension costs, but also the unfunded liability," said a top Emanuel administration source who was not authorized to speak publicly about Rauner's plan. "That's not a very even trade."

Recognizing that a deal is unlikely before lawmakers return to the Capitol next Tuesday, the last day of the current budget year, Madigan had scheduled the chamber to hear from state agencies about their plans to deal with a shutdown.

"It seems the governor missed an opportunity to avoid disrupting the lives of many, many middle-class families for the sake of nonbudget issues," Madigan said in a statement.

Republicans scoffed at the attempt to place the blame for a possible shutdown on Rauner.

COMMENTS:

Sen. Matt Murphy, R-Palatine, contended that Democrats were at fault and took particular aim at Madigan, whom Rauner has labeled as an obstructionist in an ongoing television advertising blitz.

"The governor has been trying to do all spring what the voters sent him to do, which was change the direction of the state," Murphy said. "At the end of the day, Speaker Madigan has pushed us into a situation where we can either accept his status quo or we have to have a fight.

"The question I have is, if you are satisfied with the way Illinois was operating, I will lay down and let Mike Madigan have his way," Murphy said. "But if you want to go in a different direction, unfortunately we have to stand up to the guy."

Caught in the middle are those who rely on government services, including social service providers who spent months lobbying lawmakers to preserve funding for programs that pay for services for the poor, elderly and disabled. Rauner had proposed slashing spending on those programs, but the Democrat-passed budget that Rauner vetoed would have largely kept their funding intact.

"When the governor vetoes these budget bills that were crafted from this process, that's basically saying, 'Your concerns are not that important,' " said Amber Smock, director of advocacy for Access Living, a nonprofit that advocates for people with disabilities.

"Everybody worked really hard on that budget, and now it got turned down and we don't' know what's next," Smock said. "That's really scary. We don't know what's going to happen."

Meanwhile, pressure was relieved Thursday in Rauner's simmering stalemate with the largest state employee union, whose contract expires June 30. The administration and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 31 reached a deal to extend talks on a new contract through July, putting off the possibility of a lockout or a strike in the coming weeks.

Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson, Bill Ruthhart and Hal Dardick contributed.

Kim Geiger reported from Chicago

Above is available at:  Chicago officials reject Rauner's pension bone amid budget veto - Chicago Tribune#page=1#page=1

Boone County animal-control center bids far exceed $800K budget - News - Rockford Register Star - Rockford, IL

 

• By Ben Stanley
  Rockford Register Star

  Posted Jun. 22, 2015 at 3:36 PM
  Updated Jun 22, 2015 at 11:57 PM

  BELVIDERE — Three bids Boone County received for building an animal-control center far exceed the architect's cost estimate last July.

  Voters approved a referendum in November to build the facility using $800,000 generated over three years by a small property tax increase.

  The referendum ended years of debate over how to pay for a new center. The state of the facility has been an issue for years. In 2010, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration cited it for several violations.

  The $800,000 estimate given by architect Mark Schmidt in July 2014 influenced the County Board's decision to seek that amount in the referendum. The county reached out to 10 contractors for the project; three submitted bids Friday:

  Sjostrom & Sons: $1,242,800.

  Rockford Structures Construction Co.: $1,099,000.

  Larson & Larson Builders: $1,080,800.

"Things have changed in the marketplace in the last year,"

Schmidt said. "We added square footage to the building and we're building in a different location. All of those things were variables I couldn't have estimated in 2014."

The original plans were for a 2,700-square-foot building on a lot off Highway 76 just north of Maple Crest Care Center. New plans call for a 3,500-square-foot building on a lot off Squaw Prairie Road just east of the original site.

The Roads and Capital Improvements Committee held a special meeting tonight  to review the county's options — scrap the current plans and take bids in 60 to 90 days for a cheaper design, find more money for the project, or make a commitment to the low bidder on the condition that costs are trimmed from the design to keep the building within budget while keeping its blueprint intact.

"We pushed for a tighter bid schedule than we probably should have," committee member Karl Johnson said during the meeting.

Without an additional funding source, and fearing that rejecting the bids to draft a new building design could set construction back another calendar year, the committee voted to make a conditional commitment to Larson & Larson, pending approval by Boone County State's Attorney Michelle Courier.

Schmidt listed 10 ways the county could shave costs from the design. Among them: decreasing superficial elements, such as the amount of stone siding on the building; and making interior changes, such as reducing the number of fenced stalls for animals. The new building keeps the same number of stalls as the old one.

"As I understand it, the capacity of the current building was never the problem, it was the quality of the building itself," Schmidt said.

Animal Services Operations Supervisor Roger Tresemer said he doesn't want the building's animal capacity to be reduced.

"Some of the niceties for the office areas could be brought aboard later," he said. "I thought ... the whole reason of building a new shelter was you'd have a safer, cleaner, easier-to-sanitize environment but still house at least the same number of animals."

Ben Stanley: 815-987-1369; bstanley@rrstar.com; @ben_j_stanley

By Ben Stanley
Rockford Register Star

Rockford Register Star

 

• Above is from:  Boone County animal-control center bids far exceed $800K budget - News - Rockford Register Star - Rockford, IL

Voice of the Reader: Rauner's union-busting ruse : Opinion

To the Editor:

You all sure bought the Rauner, anti-union rhetoric hook, line and sinker.

I guess I am one of those voracious union bosses since I led the teachers in Carterville for over 20 years. Decent contract, salaries and working conditions but not a cent in my pocket except what all the teachers got. The governor wants to see right-to-work legislation, which he hopes will do away with collective bargaining. Who benefits by that? Not the state but corporate Illinois wanting lower wages to increase their bottom line.

Whether workers are union or not, they benefit by union insistence on living wages and safe, decent working conditions. Right-to-work means no due process in firing and the right to work at lower wages.

Bringing 'business' to Illinois will happen, lower wages, little to no regulation and bigger bottom line are enticements. Of course, that means less taxes paid into state coffers, especially if you add in corporate tax breaks. Abusers to the system? There are due process rules so that shirkers can be fired. I have no sympathy for Speaker Madigan. Democrats have given the electorate what they demand but have not provided the revenues to to pay for services. The fat I see in Illinois are not in union and legislative pockets but in corporate pants and the generous salaries of the governor's appointed experts who will tell us how to provide more and pay less tax.

Do the math Illinois.

Marlene Koerner

Herrin

Voice of the Reader: Rauner's union-busting ruse : Opinion

Sales of Confederate flags are soaring - Yahoo Finance#

 

Alotta Signs of Sparks, Nev., typically sells about five Confederate flags per week. On Monday, however, 46 orders came in. Then South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley called for removing the stars and bars from her state's capitol grounds. The next morning, Alotta Signs logged 200 orders for Confederate flags, most of them through Amazon (AMZN). “We don’t even have the lowest price,” says Dave Pearson, owner and president of the company. “It’s nuts.”

 

The threat of scarcity often leads to a run on products -- such as guns, with sales typically spiking when there's talk of tightening regulations after mass shootings. And that appears to be the case for the Confederate flag, now under assault in the aftermath of the murder of nine worshippers at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston. Dylann Roof, the alleged murderer, posted several pictures of himself online with a Confederate flag and white supremacist symbols, stoking furor around a flag that has long been controversial. Many politicians who had defended the right of southern states to fly the flag changed their minds and said it should be relegated to museums. Walmart (WMT) and Sears (SHLD) said they would no longer sell Confederate flag merchandise.

But other retailers are benefiting from the controversy. On Monday, before Haley announced her change in position on the flag (which still must be approved by the state assembly), Amazon listed two Confederate flags among the 60 bestselling items under “Outdoor Flags and Banners”: one at the No. 5 spot, and one at No. 43. The following morning, five of the top 20 bestsellers in the category were Confederate flags, including the No. 1 bestseller, a 3-by-5 foot polyester model made by Rhode Island Novelty and sold by a company called Anley. Among the top 60, 12 were versions of the Confederate flag.

Sales of Confederate flags are soaring - Yahoo Finance#