Who bets that Donald Trump is the next Speaker of the House?

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Donald Trump's Chances of Becoming House Speaker, According to Bookmakers

Story by Jack Dutton • 5h ago

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump greets people as he arrives for a New Years event at his Mar-a-Lago home on December 31, 2022 in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump could be the next House Speaker, according to a bookmaker.© Joe Raedle/Getty

Donald Trump is in the running to be the next House Speaker, according to one bookmaker, despite the former president throwing his weight behind Kevin McCarthy's embattled election bid.

After two days of chaos in the House and McCarthy not passing the threshold of 218 votes to claim the gavel in the Republican-controlled lower chamber, the House reconvened on Thursday to try and find a way forward.

In the final ballot on Wednesday, McCarthy acquired 201 votes, still short of the threshold.

There are 222 Republicans in the House, so more than four of them not voting for McCarthy will mean that he will not pass the threshold to be House Speaker. The California lawmaker is under increasing pressure to garner the extra votes or step aside for an alternative candidate.

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Democratic lawmakers have been nominating Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democrat who beat McCarthy with 212 votes in the sixth tally on Wednesday night.

BetOnline.ag has provided odds as to who will be the next House Speaker. The favorites to win are McCarthy and Steve Scalise, who are tied at 5-4. Elise Stefanik follows with 10-1 and Jim Jordan is at 20-1.

Hakeem Jeffries has odds of 20-1.

Meanwhile, Trump, who is not a member of the house, comes in at 33-1.

However, in an interview on Wednesday Lauren Boebert, the Colorado Congresswoman who has not been voting to support McCarthy, said she could nominate the former president.

The current Democratic speaker Nancy Pelosi comes in at 150-1 odds.

McCarthy is facing mounting criticism for not gaining the majority needed to become House Speaker. Florida Representative and Trump ally Matt Gaetz accused McCarthy of "squatting" in the Speaker's office after two days of failed attempts.

"He's a desperate guy whose vote share is dropping with every subsequent vote and I'm ready to vote all night, all week, all month, and never for that person," Gaetz, the Florida representative leading the so-called "Never Kevin" caucus, said.

This is the first time since 1923 that a speaker has failed to win election on the first ballot.

BetOnline's political odds analyst, Paul Krishnamurty, said the speaker saga is only hurting the Republican party's chances in the 2024 general election.

"In light of the chaos surrounding the vote to be next Speaker of the House of Representatives, we've shortened odds for a 2024 Democrat victory from +120 (6/5) to +110 (11/10). Republicans are still favored but have gone from -140 (5/7) to -130 (10/13)," Krishnamurty said in a statement emailed to Newsweek.

"The disappointing midterm results have sparked what is likely to be an ongoing crisis within the GOP," he added.

"Whoever emerges as Speaker seems sure to struggle to unite their very narrow majority in the House, and the inevitable prominence of divisive, obstructionist candidates may further damage the party's brand nationally," he said.

"We still favor a generic Republican ahead of a generic Democrat to win the presidency, partly due to the considerable weight of money pouring behind Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, and also Joe Biden's persistently low approval rating. Nevertheless, recent momentum in U.S. politics lies with the Democrats and losing the House may yet turn out to be a blessing in disguise," he concluded.

Newsweek has contacted other bookmakers for comment and odds.

Please note, political betting is illegal in the United States, but it is legal in Europe.