seems to be an article of faith on the right that if Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner declares war and spends millions of dollars on TV attack ads targeting Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, Rauner will “win” and Madigan will “lose” and the speaker will be forced to negotiate with Rauner in good faith.
But I don't think Madigan is going to cave any time soon.
When Senate President John Cullerton wanted to send the governor a separate education budget bill that exactly matched the governor's own proposal, Madigan shot down the idea, reportedly because he didn't want to take the chance that Rauner might sign it and schools would open on schedule this August.
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In other words, the man appears serious about crashing the government if the governor declares all-out war.
In 2007 and 2008, when the world's economy started to tank, Madigan ignored the growing economic and state fiscal disasters because he was determined to continue his fight with then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Madigan's unwillingness to make peace is one reason the state was so ill-prepared to deal with the global crash.
Rauner has far more resources at his disposal than Blagojevich ever did, so the right's firm belief in victory over Madigan seems unshakable. We've seen it in editorials, columns and press releases over the past several days, and we're sure to see more.
But after talking with some top Rauner people, I don't think talk of a TV ad campaign is about forcing Madigan to negotiate with the governor this year, or even next year. Instead, this is about the “war to end all wars.” It's about finally getting rid of the man who has been perched atop this state's General Assembly for decades.
Madigan has bent every governor, every legislative leader and just about everyone else in Illinois politics to his will. He has made an inordinate number of enemies over the years. Most of them would love to see him gone at almost any price. And some of his biggest haters also happen to be some of the wealthiest people in Illinois, who not coincidentally also are Rauner supporters.
One of the wisest men I've ever known is Otto Boxberger, my parents' next-door neighbor in Germany. He was drafted into the German army during World War II, was captured by the Americans and quickly became a model POW.
When Germany decided to deploy combat soldiers for the first time since World War II to Kosovo, I asked Boxberger how he felt about the move. In World War I and World War II, he said, Germans sang as they marched into battle. In Kosovo, the Germans had so much terrible experience behind them that they thought things through before dispatching troops.
Madigan's budget for the next fiscal year is as much as $4 billion out of balance. Without an agreement with Rauner to raise taxes, an unthinkable number of programs and services would be slashed. And the fiscal carnage likely would last until the end of the governor's first term, and perhaps his second, if Madigan survives politically.
The government has to make pension payments, it has to pay Medicaid bills and it has to do a few other very expensive things. Which means everything else, including education, would have to take gigantic hits. If that happens, we probably can forget about the governor obtaining any sort of compromise on his proposals for a freeze on property taxes, changes to workers' compensation and unemployment insurance, and tort reform.
Before loudly belting out battle songs, everybody—the sideline cheerleaders, the billionaires, the governor and Madigan himself—should stop and consider the very real consequences here. Once the war begins, it will be almost impossible to stop.
Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.
Rauner vs. Madigan means lots of collateral damage - Miller - Crain's Chicago Business
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