September 25 : 2514 New COVID-19 Cases in Illinois

25 additional fatalities in Illinois.  11 new COVID-19 cases in Boone County.

**********************************************************************************************************************************************

Here's where each health region in northern Illinois stands as of Friday

State's positivity rate increases slightly to 3.6%, hospitalizations decrease

By JOHN SAHLYFollow12:15 PM

Nam Y. Huh

Caption

As a public service, Shaw Media will provide open access to information related to the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) emergency. Sign up for the newsletter here

The Illinois Department of Public Health reported 2,514 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 25 additional deaths Friday.

The seven-day rolling average of Illinois’ positivity rate increased slightly to 3.6%. The state received the results of 69,793 COVID-19 tests in the 24 hours leading up to Friday afternoon.

Illinois has seen 283,885 total cases of the virus, and 8,563 people have died. The state has conducted a total of 5,363,471 tests since the start of the pandemic.

• Virus cases rise in U.S. heartland, home to anti-mask feelings
• IDPH to provide free COVID-19 testing in Joliet, Romeoville

As of late Thursday, Illinois had 1,637 COVID-19 patients in the hospital, a decrease of 76 patients over the previous 24 hours. Of those currently in the hospital, 371 were in intensive care units, and 124 were on ventilators. This is the lowest number of COVID-19 patients on a ventilator since mid-August.

Regional update: Additional restrictions can be placed on any of the state's 11 health regions if the region sustains an increase in its average positivity rate for seven days out of a 10-day period.

A region may also become more restrictive if there is a seven-day increase in hospital admissions for COVID-19-related illness or a reduction in hospital medical/surgical beds or ICU capacity below 20%. If a region reports three consecutive days with greater than an 8% average positivity rate, additional infection mitigation will be considered through a tiered system of restriction guidelines offered by the IDPH.

The North Suburban region (McHenry and Lake counties) has seen one day of positivity increases and two days of hospital admission increases. The region's positivity rate decreased slightly to 5.0%. Currently, 36% of medical/surgical beds are available and 49% of ICU beds.

The West Suburban region (DuPage and Kane counties) has seen one day of positivity increases and one days of hospital admission increases, a decrease in both metrics. The region's positivity rate decreased to 5.3%. Currently, 27% of medical/surgical beds are available and 38% of ICU beds.

The South Suburban region (Will and Kankakee counties) has seen two days of positivity increases and three days of hospital admission increases. The region's positivity rate remained flat at 5.7%. Currently, 28% of the region's medical/surgical beds are available and 33% of ICU beds.

The North region (Boone, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside and Winnebago counties) has seen four days of positivity increases and one day of hospital admission increases, a decrease in both metrics. The region's positivity rate decreased for the first time in four days, this time to 7.6%, still the highest rate of any of the state's 11 regions. Currently, 38% of medical/surgical beds are available and 50% of ICU beds.

If Region 1 hits 8% positive for three consecutive days, IDPH will put the region on additional mitigations.

The North-Central region (Bureau, Fulton, Grundy, Henderson, Henry, Kendall, Knox, La Salle, Livingston, Marshall, McDonough, McLean, Mercer, Peoria, Putnam, Rock Island, Stark, Tazewell, Warren and Woodford counties) has seen zero days of positivity increases and two days of hospital admission increases. The region's positivity rate decreased slightly to 5.3%. Currently, 39% of medical/surgical beds are available and 41% of ICU beds.

Chicago has seen two days of positivity increases and one day of hospital admission increases. The region's positivity rate remained flat at 4.6%. Currently, 23% of medical/surgical beds are available and 32% of ICU beds.

Suburban Cook County has seen two days of positivity increases and zero days of hospital admission increases. The region's positivity rate decreased slightly to 4.6%. Currently, 26% of medical/surgical beds are available and 34% of ICU beds.

To see how other regions across the state are doing, see the full IDPH dashboard here.

Above is from:  https://www.shawlocal.com/2020/09/25/heres-where-each-health-region-in-northern-illinois-stands-as-of-friday/aac0z9h/

Missouri governor, opponent of mandatory masks, has COVID-19

Missouri governor, opponent of mandatory masks, has COVID-19

DAVID A. LIEB and JIM SALTER

,

Associated Press•September 23, 2020

0:27

2:31

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson tests positive for COVID-19

FOR COVID-19
Gov. Mike Parson/ Missouri
Right now I feel fine, no
symptoms of any kind but right
now we have to take the
quarantine procedures in

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, a Republican who has steadfastly refused to require residents to wear masks, tested positive for the coronavirus, his office said Wednesday.

Parson was tested after his wife, Teresa, tested positive earlier in the day. Teresa Parson had experienced mild symptoms, including a cough and nasal congestion, spokeswoman Kelli Jones said. She took a rapid test that came back positive and a nasal swab test later confirmed the finding. The governor's rapid test showed he tested positive and he is still awaiting results from the swab test.

“I want everybody to know that myself and the first lady are both fine,” Parson said in a video posted on his Facebook page.

“Right now I feel fine. No symptoms of any kind,” Parson said in the video. “But right now we just have to take the quarantine procedures in place.”

Gov. Parson postponed several events through the remainder of the week. He and his wife had been traveling around the state this week for events that included a ceremonial bill signing in Cape Girardeau, where a photo posted Tuesday on the governor’s Facebook page showed both of them wearing masks.

On Friday, he and several other Missouri Republican candidates appeared together at an event called the “TARGET BBQ” in Springfield. A photo posted on Parson’s Twitter pages shows Parson on a stage with four other statewide officeholders seeking reelection: Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and Attorney General Eric Schmitt. They appear to be a few feet apart from each other, but none are wearing masks.

Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Director Randall Williams said contact tracing efforts have begun, seeking out people who have had close contact with the governor or his wife, but despite Parson’s many recent public appearances, it is believed that involves “a relatively small number of people.”

“Surprisingly it’s not as big a number as you might think because while they might be in a room with 1,000 people, the number of people who were literally with them for 15 minutes, right up next to them, is actually a smaller number,” Williams said at a news conference.

Parson is self-isolating in the governor’s mansion, Williams said. His wife is isolating at their home in Bolivar in southwestern Missouri.

Spokespeople for Schmitt, Fitzpatrick and Kehoe said those elected officials all tested negative Wednesday. A spokeswoman for Ashcroft said his “recent interactions with the Governor and First Lady fall well short of the ‘close contact’ threshold.”

Parson, 65, is facing Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway in the November election. The two were supposed to debate Friday in a forum hosted by the Missouri Press Association, but it has been postponed, said Mark Maassen, executive director of the association. He said the forum will be rescheduled.

“I wish Governor Parson and First Lady Teresa Parson a safe and full recovery," Galloway said in a statement. "This is a stark reminder that this virus can reach anyone, anywhere and that this pandemic is far from over. We must all continue to do our part in preventing the spread of the virus by practicing social distancing, washing hands, and wearing a mask.”

Parson has repeatedly urged residents to wear masks and maintain social distancing, but he has been an outspoken opponent of mask mandates, sometimes appearing at functions without one. In July, speaking without a mask at a Missouri Cattlemen’s Association steak fry in Sedalia, he reiterated his stance.

“You don’t need government to tell you to wear a dang mask,” he said. “If you want to wear a dang mask, wear a mask.”

Parson’s opposition to statewide mask mandates has held strong even as the White House Coronavirus Task Force has recommended a face covering requirement in Missouri given the state’s escalating number of confirmed cases. When Parson allowed the state to reopen for business in mid-June, about 16,000 cases had been confirmed. The state health department on Wednesday added 1,580 new cases, bringing the total to 116,946 since the pandemic began.

The state also has reported 1,947 deaths, including 83 reported Wednesday. That single-day total was the highest since the pandemic began. The second-highest was the 57 announced Tuesday.

Asked Wednesday whether it was time for a statewide mask mandate, Parson's health director again deferred those decisions to local officials.

"We just think that if you’re too draconian everywhere ... it’s almost as if it creates more problems than it solves,” Williams said.

Parson would be considered a potential high-risk patient given his age and a preexisting condition. On Christmas Eve in 2016, Parson underwent heart surgery after doctors discovered a blockage during a routine checkup in Springfield.

Two other Republican governors also have tested positive for COVID-19, though one of those turned out to be a false positive. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt in July became the first governor to announce he'd tested positive. He recovered and returned to work less than two weeks later.

In August, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced that a rapid test was positive. But a short time later, DeWine said a more sensitive test was negative.

Parson is a former county sheriff and state representative who was elected lieutenant governor in 2016.

On Tuesday, the Parsons attended the grand opening in southern Missouri of the first U.S. public golf course designed by Tiger Woods. Woods hosted an exhibition match that featured him and fellow pro golfer Justin Thomas playing against British stars Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose. Two other golf legends, Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player, also were in attendance.

A spokeswoman for Big Ceder Lodge, which operates the new Payne's Valley course, said the governor and first lady were there for “a limited amount of time and did not have direct interaction with the participants.”

___

Salter reported from O'Fallon, Missouri. Associated Press writers Summer Ballentine in Columbia, Missouri; John Hanna in Topeka, Kansas; and AP golf writer Doug Ferguson in Jacksonville, Florida, contributed to this report.

Above is from:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/wife-missouri-governor-tests-positive-184025152.html

Big Changes at Beloit College?

Diane Hendricks, three others

resign from Beloit College board of trustees

Devi ShastriBill GlauberDaniel Bice

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

View Comments

0:13

1:00

In a stunning blow to Beloit College's fortunes, billionaire businesswoman and philanthropist Diane Hendricks and three others abruptly resigned from the school's board of trustees.

No reason was given for their departures in a statement released Thursday by the school.

The news comes at a time of financial uncertainty for the 174-year-old college, as it navigates reopening during the coronavirus pandemic and years of fluctuating enrollment. In 2018 and 2019, the school received about $11 million in donations from board members and employees, according to the college's June 2019 financial report.

The other board members to leave were Jim Packard, Chuck McQuaid and Jim Sanger. None of the four responded to Milwaukee Journal Sentinel interview requests.

"After many years of support, including completing the Powerhouse student union and recreation center project, and helping Beloit College finalize a new five-year financial plan, four Board of Trustees members have decided to step down from their official duties," said the statement from Elizabeth Conlisk, the school's interim chief communications officer.

Conlisk added: "We thank them for their invaluable service. All have been exceptionally generous with their time, talent, and treasure. All fully understand the importance of an even stronger relationship between the City of Beloit and the College and will be active in supporting that further."

Hendricks, founder of a wholesale company called ABC Supply, has shaped Wisconsin for years through her philanthropy and as a well-known donor to Republicans, including former Gov. Scott Walker.

Over the years, Hendricks and her late husband were prime boosters of the college and lavished millions helping to restore sites throughout Beloit. Forbes lists Hendricks as the third-wealthiest person in Wisconsin and 84th in the country. The magazine estimates her net worth at $7 billion.

Packard is the former president and chief executive officer of Regal-Beloit Corp.; McQuaid was co-founder and past president at Columbia Wanger Asset Management; and Sanger served on the board for more than 20 years.

According to a 2017 article on the college's website, Sanger was chair of the board for at least 12 years. The college renamed its Center for the Sciences — a 117,000-square-foot building that houses seven academic departments — after Sanger and his wife, Marjorie. The Sangers also fund a summer research program.

"In the long history of Beloit College, few individuals or families have built such fruitful connections so quickly or had such a transformative impact on the school as the family of Marge and James Sanger," the article states.

The departure of four board members at the same time is unusual. The college's website shows 21 remaining board members and two lifetime members. The board's bylaws say members serve three-year terms but also that they serve until replacements are named.

Conlisk said the school has "identified a number of potential Trustee candidates whose names will be presented to the Beloit College Board in coming months."

Small college faces uncertainty

In fall 2019, Beloit College had a total enrollment of 1,143 undergraduate students, according to the U.S. Department of Education.

Like most similarly sized institutions, the small liberal arts college is especially susceptible to enrollment declines. Last year, the Wisconsin Examiner reported, the college faced a $7 million shortfall after a significant drop in enrollment.

Conlisk did not immediately provide the enrollment for this fall.

In April, Moody's Investors Service downgraded Beloit College, citing "significant market challenges, evidenced by declining enrollment and net tuition revenue."

Tuition revenue at the college fell 16% in the 2019 fiscal year. Combined with financial constraints from the pandemic, the college's financial outlook is negative, according to the rating rationale.

Like all other colleges and universities nationally, especially private colleges, Beloit faced financial pressures to reopen this fall, and the consequences of not making it through the semester could be dire. Beloit already offered prorated room and board refunds to students when they were forced to abruptly send students home last spring.

Moody's also predicted the college could face challenges with philanthropy due to market volatility. This is a challenge other universities will also face, national experts have said.

The news comes as the college continues to grapple with the uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beloit College has earned national recognition for its efforts to ensure a safe return to school this fall, including an early decision to rework the entire academic calendar and efforts to involve students in the development of a COVID-19 behavioral pledge.

In addition to the costly investments to reopen campus during a pandemic, the college has made other moves to stabilize enrollment, including a plan to offer students a free ninth and 10th semester of education by covering any tuition and fees financial aid does not.

Contact Devi Shastri at 414-224-2193 or DAShastri@jrn.com. Follow her on Twitter at @DeviShastri.

Above is from:  https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/09/24/diane-hendricks-3-others-resign-beloit-college-board-trustees/3518554001/

*************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Dear Beloit College Alumni:

As some of you may have heard, four members of the Board of Trustees have notified us of their decision to step down from their official duties.

After many years of support, including completing the Powerhouse student union and recreation center project, and helping Beloit College finalize a new five-year financial plan, Diane Hendricks, Jim Packard, Chuck McQuaid, and Jim Sanger are resigning from the board. 

All four love the college. All have been long-term Board members. All have been exceptionally generous with their time, talent, and treasure. And all fully understand the importance of an even stronger relationship between the City of Beloit and the College and will be active in supporting that further.

Regular turnover on college boards is the norm and all four departing trustees have spoken for some time about their plans to step down from the Board. We have identified a number of potential Trustee candidates whose names will be presented to the Beloit College Board in coming months.

We thank the four departing trustees for their invaluable service, and look forward to their continuing support of the College.

Sincerely,

Scott Bierman

President

September 24: University of Washington COVID-19 Projections

This is a work in Progress

The September 3 & 18 &24 death projections are through January1, 2021.

The August 6-27 projections are through December 1. 2020

The July 7-30 are through November 1, 2020.

The September 3 projections are available from:  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

                         July 7----July 14-----JULY 22------July 30—August 6*—August 21*—August 27*—September 3—September 18==September 24

Most states as well as the US in general have lower death projections.

United States 208,255,  224,546, 219,864,  230,822,  295,011, 309,918; 317,312, 410,451, NOW 378,321. NOW 371,509   Population 331.00 million  629.17 per million 678.39 per million, 664.24 per million, 697.35 per million, 891.17 per million, 936.3 per million, 958.65 per million; 1240.03 per million, NOW 1142.96 per million

Georgia  3,857  deaths; 4736;  7336; 10,278, 11,288, 10.805, 12,410,13,871, NOW 12.813, NOW 12,151 Population 3.99 million   966.67 per million ; 1186 .97 per million;1838.60 per million; 2575.94 per million; 2829.07 per million; 2708.02 per million; 3110.28 per million; 3476.44 per million, NOW 3211.28 per million

New York  32,221 deaths; 35,379; 35,039; 34,423;  33,945; 32,743,  33,960;41,653, NOW 43,857, NOW 37,856  Population 18.8 million  1713.88 per million; 1881.86 per million; 1863.78 per million; 1836.33 per million;  1805.59 per million; 1741.65 per million;1806.38 per million; 2215.59 per million, NOW 2332.82 per million

Massachusetts  12,906 deaths; 10,121 deaths ; 9970;   9647;  10,314; 12.295, 12,410; 14,175, NOW 13,743, NOW 13,255   Population 6.7 million  1926.27 per million 1510.60 per million; 1488.06 per million;  1439.85 per million; 1539.40 per million; 1835.07 per million;1852.24 per million; 2115.67 per million, NOW 2051.19 per million

Louisiana   4,643 deaths; 5,167; 4955; 6401; 7901; 7840; 7993; 8920, NOW 8042, NOW 8494  Population 4.6 million  1009.35  per million; 1123.26 per million; 1077.17 per million; 1391.52 per million;1717.61 per million; 1704.35 per million; 1737.61 per million; 1939.13 per million, NOW 1748.26 per million

Connecticut  4,692  deaths; 4,456;  4750;  4844;  5179; 4675; 4626; 5060, NOW 6188, NOW 6941 deaths  Population  3.7 million   1268.11 per million; 1204.32 per million;1283.78 per million;  1309.19 per million; 1399.73 per million; 1263.52 per million; 1250.27 per million; 1367.57 per million, NOW 1672.43 per million

District of Columbia  666 deaths; 681 ; 694 ;  646; 605; 837;  935; 1038, NOW 1011, NOW 827 Population  .706 million  943.34 per million; 964.59 per million; 983.00 per million; 915.01 per million;  856.94 per million; 1185.55 per million; 1324.36 per million; 1470.25 per million, NOW 1432.01 per million

South Carolina 242 deaths; 4,556; 3186;  3232; 3672; 4724; 5023; 6764, NOW 6472, NOW 6475   Population 5.0 million  48.4 per million; 911.20 per million;  637.2 per million;646.4 per million; 734.40 per million; 944.8 per million; 1004.60 per million; 1352.80 per million, NOW 1294.40 per million

Arizona  5,553 deaths; 5,177;  5664;7946;  6840; 9562; 7148; 8766, NOW 9388, NOW 9468   Population 7.29 million  761.73 per million ;710.15 per million;  776.95 per million: 1089.97 per million; 938.27 per million.; 1311.66 per million; 980.52 per million;  1202.47 per million, NOW 1287.79 per million

Maryland  3,880 deaths ; 4,278;  4194;  4026; 5174;  5301; 4404; 7997, NOW 7414, NOW 5393 Population 6.0 million  646.67  per million; 713.00 per million; 699.0 per million;  671.0 per million;  862.34 per million; 883.5 per million; 734 per million;1332.84 per million, NOW 1235.67 per million,

Florida   17,477 deaths;19,285; 18,154,  16,318; 19,358; 21,174; 24,532; 26,251, NOW 26,472, NOW 26,945   Population 21.47 million  814.01 per million; 893.23 per million; 845.55 per million; 760.04 per million; 901.63 per million;  986.21 per million;1142.63 per million; 1222.68 per million, NOW 1232.98 per million

Illinois 8,907 deaths; 8,351;  8472 ;  8280;  9995; 11,071,15,058; 18,068, NOW 15,523, NOW 15,321  Population 12.63 million  705.23 per million; 657.56 per million; 772.43 per million;  655.58 per million;  791.37 per million; 876.56 per million, 1192.24 per million; 1430.56 per million, NOW 1229.06 per million

Pennsylvania  9,999 deaths; 8,431; 8028;  8350; 8859; 14,998; 14,604;14,604;  16,732, NOW 14,703, NOW 13,867   Population 12.7 million  787.32 per million; 663.86 per million; 632.13 per million;657.48 per million;  697.56 per million; 1180.94 per million; 1317.48 per million, NOW 1157.72 per million

California 16,827 deaths;  21,264; 19,572;  16,515;  32,692; 41,110; 37,645; 49,602, NOW 43,856, NOW 43,211   Population 39.78 million  423.00 per million;  534.54 per million;492.01 per million;  415.16 per million; 821.82 per million; 1033.43 per million; 1497.52 per million; 1246.91 per million, NOW 1102.46 per million

Iowa  841 deaths;  1,225; 1813,1700; 2163 2856; 3077; 3863. NOW 3421, NOW 2323  Population 3.17 million  265.30 per million; 386.44 per million; 571.93 per million;  536.28 per million;  682.34 per million; 900.95 per million; 970.66 per million; 1218.61 per million, NOW 1079.18 per million

Texas    13,450 deaths;18,675;  18,812; 24,557; 27,435; 25.532; 27,194;  34,319, 29,319, NOW  33,356   Population 29.90 million  449.83 per million; 624.58 per million; 629.16 per million; 921.30 per million; 917.56 per million; 853.91 per million; 909.50 per million; NOW 1115.59 per million

Virginia 5,190 deaths ;  4,881;  2643; 2289;  5842; 2828; 2940; NOW 9780, NOW 8333. NOW 4315  Population 8.63 million  601.39  per million ;565.59 per million; 306.26 per million:  265.24 per million; 676.94 per million; 327.69 per million; 340.67 per million; NOW 1133.26 per million

Arkansas 724 deaths;  617, 895; 833; 2234; 2364;  2406; NOW 3268, NOW 3106    Population 3.018 million  239.89 per million 204.44 per million; 293.55 per million;   276.01 per million ; 740.23 per million; 783.30 per million; 797.22 per million; NOW 1082.84 per million

Ohio  5,712  deaths;4,545;  3900;  5694; 9041; 6046; 7564; NOW 11,975, NOW 11,121  Population 11.73 million  486.96 per million; 387.47 per million; 332.48 per million; 485.42 per million; 770.76 per million; 515.43 per million; 644.84 per million; NOW 1020.89 per million

Missouri  5436 deaths; 3068;  5231; NOW 5933, NOW 5388 Population 6.137 million; 885.77 per million; 499.92 per million, 852.37 per million; NOW 966.76 per million

Oklahoma  587  deaths;1,029 ; 1533; 1484;   2967, 2058; 3055; NOW 3589, NOW 2006 Population 4.0 million  146.75 per million 257.23 per million; 383.25 per million; 371.24 per million; 741.75 per million; 514.5 per million; 763.75 per million; NOW 897.25 per million

Kansas 632 deaths ; 410;  412; 588; 2245; 1277; 994; NOW 2453, NOW 3086  Population  2.77 million  228.16 per million 148.01 per million; 148.74 per million;  212.27 per million;  810.47 per million; 461.01 per million; 358.84 per million; NOW 885.56 per million

North Dakota 215 deaths; 371; 491; NOW 618, NOW 616 Population .762 million 282.15 per million;486.88 per million; 644.36 per million; NOW 811.02 per million

Oregon  471 deaths; 605;  683;  634; 2967; 2408; 2395, NOW 3457, NOW 1625    Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million; 147.44 per million; 690.0 per million; 560.0 per million; 556.98 per million; NOW 803.95 per million

Wisconsin  1,410 deaths;  992; 1041; 2030; 3708 ;1775; 2340; NOW 4603, NOW 4362 Population 5.82 million  242,27 per million 170.45 per million; 178.87 per million; 348.80 per million; 637.11 per million ; 304.98 per million; 402.06 per million; NOW 790.89 per million

Colorado  1937 deaths;  2,032; 2774:  2665; 5179; 2967; 2395; NOW 4417,NOW 4253  Population 5.8 million  333.97 per million; 478.28 per million; NOW 459.48 per million; 892.93 per million’ 511.55 per million; 412.93 per million; NOW 761.55 per million

Washington  2,510 deaths; 3,170; 3303; 2178; 5078; 5040; 4410; NOW 5400. NOW 4585  Population 7.17 million  325.98 per million ;442.112 per million; 450.67 per million;  303.77 per million; 708.23 per million; 702.93 per million;615.06 per million; NOW 753.14 per million

South Dakota 254 deaths; 281; 291; NOW 516, NOW 535 Population .885 million 287.01 per million;317.51 per million; 328.81 per million; NOW 583.05 per million

Idaho  120 deaths; 559; 513; 365;  916, 983: 1373; NOW 1641, NOW 1254 Population 4.3 million  109.53 per million 140.70 per million;  158.84 per million;147.44 per million;  213.02 per million; 228.60 per million; 319.30 per million; NOW 381.63 per million

DEATHS

How many overall deaths will there be?

Our model is updated to account for new data and information, and the estimates may change as a result. For the latest estimate, visit our COVID-19 projections tool.

Why do your results show a wide range in the forecast for deaths?

Larger uncertainty intervals – or the range within which estimated deaths are likely to fall – can occur because of limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data. A smaller range generally reflects extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources.

Why did the estimates for my location change?

To learn more, please visit our update page.

Why is the peak for daily deaths still forecast in the future when it looks like it has already occurred in my location?

The date of peak daily deaths depends on the model’s projections. If the model projects that the number of daily deaths will continue to rise, then the peak will be projected for a future date. It is important to note that the data on daily deaths may fluctuate dramatically due to irregularities in reporting. Health care workers are extremely busy caring for COVID-19 patients, so they may fall behind on reporting deaths. Once health care workers catch up on their reporting, however, it may appear as though there has been a spike in daily deaths.

Why are the “observed deaths” shown in your results for my location different from what is shown on the government’s official page?

For deaths, we primarily use the COVID-19 death data aggregated by the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository (see "Where does IHME obtain its data?"). The JHU repository uses Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), which means new days start at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The JHU counts may differ slightly from local government data as a result of these timing differences. Also, the JHU repository is not necessarily synchronized to the update schedule of every location, so there may be a short lag that is reflected in a difference between our recorded daily deaths in a given location and those ultimately reported on government websites. Although this will be corrected when we update our analysis, in some cases, these differences may persist for several days.

Yet another reason why observed deaths may differ from numbers reported by governments is due to data processing. To address irregularities in the daily death data, we average data from the last three days to create a smooth version. To see the death data exactly as it is reported, 1) click the “Chart settings” icon in the upper right corner of the chart, and 2) turn off “Smoothed data.”

There are reports of deaths being under-reported in places. How does this impact your forecast?

We are learning that not all deaths due to COVID-19 that occur at home or in nursing homes have been attributed to COVID-19. As awareness increases, the number of reported deaths is growing, with some locations now reporting presumptive COVID-19 deaths. Another challenge is that COVID-19 death data fluctuate substantially each day, with some locations reporting more deaths on Tuesdays than on Sundays and Mondays. We believe this variation is due to data reporting practices instead of actual death patterns. To mitigate the impact of inconsistent reporting on our forecasts, our published predictions are based on averaging multiple iterations of projections. As new data emerges, we incorporate it into our model, and our projections will shift up or down in response to the data. To learn more, see our estimation updates.

For Ecuador and Peru in particular, the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 appears to be improbably low. Instead of using reported COVID-19 deaths for these countries, we are approximating deaths from COVID-19. To approximate COVID-19 deaths, we used the number of excess deaths occurring in Ecuador and Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic and observations from other countries where we had weekly reports of total deaths and high-quality data on COVID-19 deaths.

September 24: 2257 New COVID-19 Cases in Illinois

30 additional fatalities in Illinois.  11 additional COVID-19 cases in Boone County.

COVID-19 hospitalizations at highest level since June

The graph shows the number of intensive care unit beds in use by COVID-19 patients, non-COVID patients and the availability rate of beds throughout the pandemic. (Credit: Jerry Nowicki of Capitol News Illinois)

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Unemployment up from a year ago in all 14 metro areas

By JERRY NOWICKI
Capitol News Illinois
jnowicki@capitolnewsillinois.com

SPRINGFIELD – Hospitalizations for COVID-19 have jumped sharply, according to the latest data from the Illinois Department of Public Health, while the number of continued unemployment claims in the state increased from the week prior.

Hospitalizations and intensive care bed usage by persons with COVID-19 increased to highs not seen since June as of the end of the day Wednesday. While the numbers often fluctuate significantly on a daily basis, the 1,713 hospitalizations for the virus were the most since there were 1,852 on June 18. The 400 intensive care beds in use by COVID-19 patients were the most since 401 were occupied on June 29. Approximately 35 percent of beds and 38 percent of ICU beds were available statewide, according to IDPH data.

There were 155 ventilators in use by COVID-19 patients, with roughly 78 percent of the machines still available.

The state reported another 2,257 confirmed cases of the virus Thursday among 62,071 test results reported, making for a one-day positivity rate of 3.6 percent. That kept the rolling, seven-day average rate at 3.5 percent for the sixth day in a row.

Another 30 virus-related deaths drove the total to 8,538 among 281,371 confirmed cases since the pandemic began. Nearly 5.3 million tests have been conducted.

Officials urged Illinoisans to get their flu shot this year to avoid further strains on medical infrastructure.

“This season more than ever, it is critical that Illinoisans get our flu shots,” IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said in a statement. “Flu and COVID-19 each can cause serious respiratory illness and co-infection could possibly lead to more severe illnesses, hospitalization, and even death. While a vaccine for COVID-19 is still in development, a vaccine for flu already exists and is your best protection against flu.”

Meanwhile, the economic effects of COVID-19 and associated economic restrictions continue to show in Illinois and nationwide.

There were 870,000 first-time unemployment claims nationwide for the week ending Sept. 19, including 25,976 in Illinois, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security. For the state, that was a decrease of 1,408 from the previous week, but the number of continued claims rose by 28,938 to 538,496.

The number of nonfarm jobs decreased since last year in all 14 Illinois metropolitan areas in August, with five metro areas at record low payrolls for the month, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Department of Labor and IDES.

The August unemployment rate was 10.9 percent statewide, the highest rate recorded since 1983, when it was 11.3 percent.

The Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights metro area had the highest unemployment rate at 12.6 percent, up from 3.8 percent during the same month a year ago. The Rockford and Decatur metropolitan areas had the next highest unemployment rates at 11.3 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively, up from 5.9 percent and 5.4 percent a year ago.

Bloomington had the lowest unemployment rate at 7.2 percent, which was an increase from 3.8 percent a year ago, followed by Champaign-Urbana, which increased to 7.4 percent from 3.9 percent.

Other areas ranged from 8.1 percent to 9.6 percent.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government and distributed to more than 400 newspapers statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.

Jerry Nowicki

September 23: 1838 New COVID-19 Cases in Illinois

22 additional fatalities in Illinois.  12 new COVID-19 cases in Boone County.

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Statewide rate level at 3.5%; COVID-19 deaths surpass 8,500

By JERRY NOWICKI
Capitol News Illinois
jnowicki@capitolnewsillinois.com

SPRINGFIELD – While Illinois’ rolling average COVID-19 positivity rate remains lower than surrounding states, Gov. JB Pritzker said once again Wednesday it is still too high to resume a level of normalcy beyond mitigations currently in place.

The rolling seven-day average positivity rate in the state remained at 3.5 percent Wednesday for the fifth straight day, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health, which reported another 1,848 new cases of the virus among 46,391 test results reported over the previous 24 hours.

“I would love it if we could get below 2 percent, that would be terrific,” Pritzker said. “We're not anywhere near that right now. And what has happened is that Illinois, even though we've got the best positivity rate among all of our neighboring states, it's still a concerning positivity rate.”

The governor once again said unequivocally he is listening to medical experts when it comes to allowing fall sports with a high risk of transmission. The expert recommendations are to not allow contact sports such as wrestling and football at this time. Sports such as football and volleyball have been tentatively rescheduled for the spring.

As for schooling, the state has let local school districts decide the best method for engaging students.

“Our schools are a priority, we want to make sure that kids are back in school,” Pritzker said. “There are many kids who are in hybrid programs, and many kids who are not at all in school, they’re just in e-learning. And the further we can drive this positivity rate down, the more I'm looking forward to the idea that kids will be able to get back in school.”

Pritzker also noted that Region 1 of the state’s reopening plan, which includes Rockford in Winnebago County and several surrounding counties in northwest Illinois, has seen its positivity rate rise to 7.5 percent. That’s higher than Region 4, which includes the Metro East area along the Missouri border near St. Louis, which currently sits at 7.3 percent.

If Region 1 sees the rate rise above 8 percent for three straight days, it would be in line for added mitigations, such as closing of bars and restaurants to indoor drinking and dining. Region 4 will have stricter mitigations removed if it falls below 6.5 percent for three straight days.

Pritzker said the state has reached out to county health officials in Region 1 to “discuss preventative measures that can be taken at the local level to avoid additional mitigations in their communities.”

Other regions ranged from 2.6 percent in east-central Illinois to 6 percent in southern Illinois.

IDPH also announced another 22 COVID-19-related deaths, pushing confirmed virus-related casualties to 8,508. There have now been 279,114 confirmed cases of the virus among more than 5.2 million test results reported. The recovery rate for those 42 days removed from a positive diagnosis is 96 percent, according to IDPH.

“Some people have become a bit numb to the numbers but I want to remind people that COVID-19 can have severe consequences,” IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said. “Definitely in the short run, and to be seen in the long run.”

Ezike once again urged all Illinoisans to wear a face covering, keep six feet apart from others, wash hands and get a flu vaccine to guard against illness.

Nationally, the death toll exceeds 200,000, which Pritzker called an “unimaginable number.” He said as the death toll rises, so does the number of people affected by the virus.

“And so unfortunately, as the numbers grow, maybe people aren't focusing as much on the how big that number is. But they are focusing on the fact that they know somebody in their community who suffered from (the virus),” he said.

Hospitalization numbers in the state remained roughly level above their pandemic lows. At the end of Tuesday, there were 1,563 persons in Illinois reported hospitalized with COVID-19, including 351 in intensive care units and 144 patients on ventilators. 

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government and distributed to more than 400 newspapers statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.

Jerry Nowicki

September 22