Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

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PROJECTION: 

As of April 1, 2020

United States of America:  93,765 Deaths

Population 331 Millions  (2020)


Florida:  6,937 deaths

Population  21.3 million (2018)


New York:  16,090

19.54 million (2018)


California:  5,161

39.56 millions (2018)


Washington:  1,233

7.536 million (2018)


Illinois:  2,789

12.74 million (2018)



Wisconsin:  926

5.814 Million (2018)

April 1: 6,980 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 7, 2020.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
Positive
   (6,980 4/1/2020) (5,994 3/31/2020)  (5,057 3/30/2020) (4,596 3/29/2020)
Deaths
(141 4/1/2020) (99 3/31/2020) (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
Total Persons Tested*
(40,384 4/1/2020) (35,225 3-31-2020) (30,446 3/30/2020)  (27,762  3/29/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information regarding the number of people under investigation updated on 3/30/2020.
Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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The University of Washington model has a large increase in total deaths for Illinois and places peak date of cases two days later than on March 31 when it was 4-16-2020


PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Illinois

(2,789 4-1-2020)  (2,326  3-31-2020)  (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020)        COVID-19 deaths   Peak date of cases 4-18-2020

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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Cases in U.S.

Updated  April 1, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases: (186,101 4/1/2020) (163,539 3/31/2020) (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
  • Total deaths: (3,603 4-1-2020) (2,860 3/31/2020) (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.(

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

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PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020:  (93,765 4/1/2020)   (83.967 3/31/2020)    ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,607 on 4-15-2020 

Older Peak Daily Deaths (2,214 on 3/31/2020) (2,271 3/30/2020)

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

March 31: 5,994 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 7, 2020.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results
Positive
5,994  (5,057 3/30/2020) (4,596  3/29/2020)
Deaths
99  (73 3/30/2020)  (65 3/29/2020)
Total Persons Tested*
35,225 (30,446 3/30/2020)  (27,762  3/29/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information regarding the number of people under investigation updated on 3/30/2020.
Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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COVID-19 Illinois Positive Cases

PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Illinois

2,326   (2,369 as of 3/30/2020)  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020) COVID-19 deaths   Peak date of cases 4-16-2020

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

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Cases in U.S.

Updated March 31, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases: 163,539 (140,904 3/30/2020)   (122,653  3-29-2020)
  • Total deaths: 2,860 (2,405 3/30/2020)   (2,112  3-29-2020)
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†


* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

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PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020:     83.967     ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,214 on 4-15-2020 (2,271 3/30/2020)

Monday, March 30, 2020

March 30: 5,057 COVID-19 cases in Illinois

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 7, 2020.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results

Positive

5,057 (4,596  3/29/2020)

Deaths

73  (65 3/29/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

30,446  (27,762  3/29/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information regarding the number of people under investigation updated on 3/30/2020.
Information to be updated daily.

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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COVID-19 Illinois Positive Cases

PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Illinois

2,369  (2,454 AS OF 3-26-2020) COVID-19 deaths   Peak date of cases 4-16-2020

For a lengthier discussion of the projection model go to:  http://boonecountywatchdog.blogspot.com/2020/03/forecasting-covid-19-impact-on-hospital.html

****************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Cases in U.S.


Updated March 30, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases: 140,904   (122,653  3-29-2020)
  • Total deaths: 2,405   (2,112  3-29-2020)
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure

Travel-related
886

Close contact
2,351

Under investigation
137,667

Total cases
140,904

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

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PROJECTIONS:   US COVID-19 Deaths thru 8-4-2020:   83.967     ( 82,141 3/30/2020);  Peak Daily 2,214 on 4-15-2020 (2,271 3/30/2020)

Wisconsin dairy farmers hit hard by coronavirus

Wisconsin dairy farmers hit hard by coronavirus

March 30, 20207:24 amAssociated PressCORONAVIRUS,NEWS,TOP STORIES

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MILWAUKEE (AP) -- The coronavirus has delivered a severe blow to Wisconsin dairy farmers who rely on selling milk to restaurants, schools and the hospitality industry.

The Journal Sentinel reports about one-third of Wisconsin dairy products, mainly cheese, are sold in the food service trade. Farmers say the coronavirus outbreak has caused milk prices to drop to unprofitable levels this spring, at a time when money is needed for the upcoming planting season.

Dairy farmers are worried about processing plants closing or cutting production, forcing them to dump milk.

Sunday, March 29, 2020

10,000 tests daily key for Illinois COVID-19 fight


Pritzker Says Illinois COVID-19 Testing Will Ramp Up

By SEAN CRAWFORD 2 HOURS AGO

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Gov. J.B. Pritzker

CREDIT DAILY FEED

In the midst of a global pandemic that has shut down much of society, concerns remain about getting enough people tested.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Sunday said Illinois is testing about 4-thousand people per day.  He expects that number will be at 10-thousand in the next ten days.

“That marker, 10,000, is significant because it’s the number of tests per day that the scientists and experts tell us that we need to get a truly holistic understanding of the virus in each of our 102 counties,” Pritzker said.

The latest numbers show 47 counties have positive cases of COVID-19.  Confirmed cases in Illinois total 4,596 with 65 deaths.  

“Every day we aren’t hitting 10,000 tests or more is another day that we’re not able to get answers that help us get past this current crisis,” he said.

Pritzker admitted the situation has long since moved past the point of containment.   He put the blame on the federal government and the Trump Administration.

“Nationally, there have been some improvements in testing, but we still have so far to go. The United States is still trailing other countries in testing on a per capita basis, several times over. In all the states we are working to fill the gap,” Pritzker said.

“But the most frustrating part of this gap is, it’s not just in the past. The White House has promised millions of tests for weeks now and they’re just not here. To be clear, I also welcome the testing capacity when it actually arrives, but I’m not going to wait on promises from the federal government that may never be fulfilled. We need this testing capacity now, so we’re building it ourselves in Illinois.”

The governor said that’s being done by adding shifts of technicians at all three state labs so they can analyze more samples.  Additional lab robotics are being acquired that speed up the process. He said the Illinois State Police is exploring options to utilize manpower and maximize capacity.

Pritzker also appeared optimistic over a new rapid results test from Illinois-based Abbott Laboratories.  Production is expected to get underway soon.

He praised the Illinois National Guard, which has opened a second drive-thru testing site, this one in McLean County.  Another is located in northwest Chicago. The federal Department of Health and Human Services is operating 3 other sites and some local hospitals have begun testing by car.

Pritzker is asking for a federal rule limiting tests in those locations to 250 per day be expanded to 400.  He said the limit has forced some people to be turned away. The governor said the goal is for everyone who needs a test to be able to get one.

Infant Death

A day after announcing an infant who tested positive for the coronavirus disease had died, there was no additional information released.

The nine-month-old died in Cook County after being hospitalized.

“We know that this is very top of mind for people and we want to be deliberate and allow the processes to take place so we can give you the best information,” said Illinois Department of Public Health Director Ngozi Ezike.  

Ezike said deaths of children from COVID-19 are rare and this could be the first case of its kind in the U.S.  From the data available, she said the disease in children typically results in more cold-like symptoms like fever, sore throat and runny nose.

The governor also tried to reassure parents that COVID-19 deaths among the young is uncommon.  

“It’s so uncommon that, at least when I started to do the work and listen to the experts about it, I got at least some comfort in the idea that this is not something that we should expect to hear a lot more of, because it’s just not happening very often at all,” he said.

Above is from:  https://www.nprillinois.org/post/pritzker-says-illinois-covid-19-testing-will-ramp#stream/0

March 29: 4,596 COVID-19 cases in Illinois



Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Gov. JB Pritzker has ordered Illinois residents to stay at home. Executive Order No. 10 requires all residents to stay home, with exceptions for essential needs or business activities. Gatherings of 10 people or more are prohibited. The order extends through April 7, 2020.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Illinois Test Results

Positive

4,596 (3,491  3/28/2020)

Deaths

65  (47  3/28/2020)

Total Persons Tested*

27,762   (25,429 3/28/2020)

*Total number of people reported electronically for testing of COVID-19 at IDPH, commercial or hospital laboratories. Deaths are included in the number of positive cases
All numbers displayed are provisional and subject to change.

Information regarding the number of people under investigation updated on 3/29/2020.
Information to be updated daily.

COVID-19 Illinois Positive Cases

Above is from:  http://www.dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/diseases-and-conditions/diseases-a-z-list/coronavirus

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PROJECTIONS from:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in Illinois

2,454 COVID-19 deaths   Peak date of cases 4-16-2020


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Cases in U.S.


Updated March 29, 2020

This page will be updated daily. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

***On Saturday and Sunday, the numbers in COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance and the figure describing the cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States will be updated. These numbers are preliminary and have not been confirmed by state and territorial health departments. CDC will update weekend numbers the following Monday to reflect health department updates.***

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*†

  • Total cases: 122,653
  • Total deaths: 2,112
  • Jurisdictions reporting cases: 55 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, Northern Marianas, and US Virgin Islands)

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†

Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure

Travel-related
712

Close contact
1,326

Under investigation
83,318

Total cases
85,356

* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.

Above is from:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html