The September 3 death projections are through January1, 2021.
The August 6-27 projections are through December 1. 2020
The July 7-30 are through November 1, 2020.
The September 3 projections are available from: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
July 7----July 14-----JULY 22------July 30—August 6*—August 21*—August 27*—September 3
United States 208,255, 224,546, 219,864, 230,822, 295,011, 309,918; 317,312, NOW 410,451 Population 331.00 million 629.17 per million 678.39 per million, 664.24 per million, 697.35 per million, 891.17 per million, 936.3 per million, 958.65 per million; NOW 1240.03 per million
Georgia 3,857 deaths; 4736; 7336; 10,278, 11,288, 10.805, 12,410, NOW 13,871 Population 3.99 million 966.67 per million ; 1186 .97 per million;1838.60 per million; 2575.94 per million; 2829.07 per million; 2708.02 per million; 3110.28 per million; NOW 3476.44 per million
New York 32,221 deaths; 35,379; 35,039; 34,423; 33,945; 32,743, 33,960; NOW 41,653 Population 18.8 million 1713.88 per million; 1881.86 per million; 1863.78 per million; 1836.33 per million; 1805.59 per million; 1741.65 per million;1806.38 per million; NOW 2215.59 per million
Massachusetts 12,906 deaths; 10,121 deaths ; 9970; 9647; 10,314; 12.295, 12,410; NOW 14,175 Population 6.7 million 1926.27 per million 1510.60 per million; 1488.06 per million; 1439.85 per million; 1539.40 per million; 1835.07 per million;1852.24 per million; NOW 2115.67 per million
Louisiana 4,643 deaths; 5,167; 4955; 6401; 7901; 7840; 7993; NOW 8920 Population 4.6 million 1009.35 per million; 1123.26 per million; 1077.17 per million; 1391.52 per million;1717.61 per million; 1704.35 per million; 1737.61 per million; NOW 1939.13 per million
District of Columbia 666 deaths; 681 ; 694 ; 646; 605; 837; 935; NOW 1038 Population .706 million 943.34 per million; 964.59 per million; 983.00 per million; 915.01 per million; 856.94 per million; 1185.55 per million; 1324.36 per million; NOW 1470.25 per million’
Illinois 8,907 deaths; 8,351; 8472 ; 8280; 9995; 11,071,15,058; NOW 18,068 Population 12.63 million 705.23 per million; 657.56 per million; 772.43 per million; 655.58 per million; 791.37 per million; 876.56 per million, 1192.24 per million; NOW 1430.56 per million
Connecticut 4,692 deaths; 4,456; 4750; 4844; 5179; 4675; 4626; NOW 5060 deaths Population 3.7 million 1268.11 per million; 1204.32 per million;1283.78 per million; 1309.19 per million; 1399.73 per million; 1263.52 per million; 1250.27 per million; NOW 1367.57 per million
South Carolina 242 deaths; 4,556; 3186; 3232; 3672; 4724; 5023; NOW 6764 Population 5.0 million 48.4 per million; 911.20 per million; 637.2 per million;646.4 per million; 734.40 per million; 944.8 per million; 1004.60 per million; NOW 1352.80 per million
Maryland 3,880 deaths ; 4,278; 4194; 4026; 5174; 5301; 4404; NOW 7997 Population 6.0 million 646.67 per million; 713.00 per million; 699.0 per million; 671.0 per million; 862.34 per million; 883.5 per million; 734 per million; NOW 1332.84 per million
Pennsylvania 9,999 deaths; 8,431; 8028; 8350; 8859; 14,998; 14,604;14,604; NOW 16,732 Population 12.7 million 787.32 per million; 663.86 per million; 632.13 per million;657.48 per million; 697.56 per million; 1180.94 per million; NOW 1317.48 per million
California 16,827 deaths; 21,264; 19,572; 16,515; 32,692; 41,110; 37,645; 49,602 Population 39.78 million 423.00 per million; 534.54 per million;492.01 per million; 415.16 per million; 821.82 per million; 1033.43 per million; 1497.52 per million; NOW 1246.91 per million
Florida 17,477 deaths;19,285; 18,154, 16,318; 19,358; 21,174; 24,532; NOW 26,251 Population 21.47 million 814.01 per million; 893.23 per million; 845.55 per million; 760.04 per million; 901.63 per million; 986.21 per million;1142.63 per million; NOW 1222.68 per million
Iowa 841 deaths; 1,225; 1813,1700; 2163 2856; 3077; NOW 3863 Population 3.17 million 265.30 per million; 386.44 per million; 571.93 per million; 536.28 per million; 682.34 per million; 900.95 per million; 970.66 per million; NOW 1218.61 per million
Arizona 5,553 deaths; 5,177; 5664;7946; 6840; 9562; 7148; NOW 8766 Population 7.29 million 761.73 per million ;710.15 per million; 776.95 per million: 1089.97 per million; 938.27 per million.; 1311.66 per million; 980.52 per million; NOW 1202.47 per million
Virginia 5,190 deaths ; 4,881; 2643; 2289; 5842; 2828; 2940; NOW 9780 Population 8.63 million 601.39 per million ;565.59 per million; 306.26 per million: 265.24 per million; 676.94 per million; 327.69 per million; 340.67 per million; NOW 1133.26 per million
Texas 13,450 deaths;18,675; 18,812; 24,557; 27,435; 25.532; 27,194; NOW 34,319 Population 29.90 million 449.83 per million; 624.58 per million; 629.16 per million; 921.30 per million; 917.56 per million; 853.91 per million; 909.50 per million; NOW 1147.79 per million
Arkansas 724 deaths; 617, 895; 833; 2234; 2364; 2406; NOW 3268 Population 3.018 million 239.89 per million 204.44 per million; 293.55 per million; 276.01 per million ; 740.23 per million; 783.30 per million; 797.22 per million; NOW 1082.84 per million
Ohio 5,712 deaths;4,545; 3900; 5694; 9041; 6046; 7564; NOW 11,975 Population 11.73 million 486.96 per million; 387.47 per million; 332.48 per million; 485.42 per million; 770.76 per million; 515.43 per million; 644.84 per million; NOW 1020.89 per million
Missouri 5436 deaths; 3068; 5231; NOW 5933 Population 6.137 million; 885.77 per million; 499.92 per million, 852.37 per million; NOW 966.76 per million
Oklahoma 587 deaths;1,029 ; 1533; 1484; 2967, 2058; 3055; NOW 3589 Population 4.0 million 146.75 per million 257.23 per million; 383.25 per million; 371.24 per million; 741.75 per million; 514.5 per million; 763.75 per million; NOW 897.25 per million
Kansas 632 deaths ; 410; 412; 588; 2245; 1277; 994; NOW 2453 Population 2.77 million 228.16 per million 148.01 per million; 148.74 per million; 212.27 per million; 810.47 per million; 461.01 per million; 358.84 per million; NOW 885.56 per million
North Dakota 215 deaths; 371; 491; NOW 618 Population .762 million 282.15 per million;486.88 per million; 644.36 per million; NOW 811.02 per million
Oregon 471 deaths; 605; 683; 634; 2967; 2408; 2395, NOW 3457 Population 4.3 million 109.53 per million 140.70 per million; 158.84 per million; 147.44 per million; 690.0 per million; 560.0 per million; 556.98 per million; NOW 803.95 per million
Wisconsin 1,410 deaths; 992; 1041; 2030; 3708 ;1775; 2340; NOW 4603 Population 5.82 million 242,27 per million 170.45 per million; 178.87 per million; 348.80 per million; 637.11 per million ; 304.98 per million; 402.06 per million; NOW 790.89 per million
Colorado 1937 deaths; 2,032; 2774: 2665; 5179; 2967; 2395; NOW 4417 Population 5.8 million 333.97 per million; 478.28 per million; NOW 459.48 per million; 892.93 per million’ 511.55 per million; 412.93 per million; NOW 761.55 per million
Washington 2,510 deaths; 3,170; 3303; 2178; 5078; 5040; 4410; NOW 5400 Population 7.17 million 325.98 per million ;442.112 per million; 450.67 per million; 303.77 per million; 708.23 per million; 702.93 per million;615.06 per million; NOW 753.14 per million
South Dakota 254 deaths; 281; 291; NOW 516 Population .885 million 287.01 per million;317.51 per million; 328.81 per million; NOW 583.05 per million
Idaho 120 deaths; 559; 513; 365; 916, 983: 1373; NOW 1641 Population 4.3 million 109.53 per million 140.70 per million; 158.84 per million;147.44 per million; 213.02 per million; 228.60 per million; 319.30 per million; NOW 381.63 per million
DEATHS
How many overall deaths will there be?
Our model is updated to account for new data and information, and the estimates may change as a result. For the latest estimate, visit our COVID-19 projections tool.
Why do your results show a wide range in the forecast for deaths?
Larger uncertainty intervals – or the range within which estimated deaths are likely to fall – can occur because of limited data availability, small studies, and conflicting data. A smaller range generally reflects extensive data availability, large studies, and data that are consistent across sources.
Why did the estimates for my location change?
To learn more, please visit our update page.
Why is the peak for daily deaths still forecast in the future when it looks like it has already occurred in my location?
The date of peak daily deaths depends on the model’s projections. If the model projects that the number of daily deaths will continue to rise, then the peak will be projected for a future date. It is important to note that the data on daily deaths may fluctuate dramatically due to irregularities in reporting. Health care workers are extremely busy caring for COVID-19 patients, so they may fall behind on reporting deaths. Once health care workers catch up on their reporting, however, it may appear as though there has been a spike in daily deaths.
Why are the “observed deaths” shown in your results for my location different from what is shown on the government’s official page?
For deaths, we primarily use the COVID-19 death data aggregated by the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data repository (see "Where does IHME obtain its data?"). The JHU repository uses Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), which means new days start at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The JHU counts may differ slightly from local government data as a result of these timing differences. Also, the JHU repository is not necessarily synchronized to the update schedule of every location, so there may be a short lag that is reflected in a difference between our recorded daily deaths in a given location and those ultimately reported on government websites. Although this will be corrected when we update our analysis, in some cases, these differences may persist for several days.
Yet another reason why observed deaths may differ from numbers reported by governments is due to data processing. To address irregularities in the daily death data, we average data from the last three days to create a smooth version. To see the death data exactly as it is reported, 1) click the “Chart settings” icon in the upper right corner of the chart, and 2) turn off “Smoothed data.”
There are reports of deaths being under-reported in places. How does this impact your forecast?
We are learning that not all deaths due to COVID-19 that occur at home or in nursing homes have been attributed to COVID-19. As awareness increases, the number of reported deaths is growing, with some locations now reporting presumptive COVID-19 deaths. Another challenge is that COVID-19 death data fluctuate substantially each day, with some locations reporting more deaths on Tuesdays than on Sundays and Mondays. We believe this variation is due to data reporting practices instead of actual death patterns. To mitigate the impact of inconsistent reporting on our forecasts, our published predictions are based on averaging multiple iterations of projections. As new data emerges, we incorporate it into our model, and our projections will shift up or down in response to the data. To learn more, see our estimation updates.
For Ecuador and Peru in particular, the number of reported deaths due to COVID-19 appears to be improbably low. Instead of using reported COVID-19 deaths for these countries, we are approximating deaths from COVID-19. To approximate COVID-19 deaths, we used the number of excess deaths occurring in Ecuador and Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic and observations from other countries where we had weekly reports of total deaths and high-quality data on COVID-19 deaths.
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
Dire COVID-19 death toll projections from researchers Trump administration touted
Corky Siemaszko
,
NBC News•September 4, 2020
Dire COVID-19 death toll projections from researchers Trump administration touted
More
Nearly three million people will “most likely” die of COVID-19 worldwide by the end of the year if governments don’t tighten social distancing requirements and people aren’t more vigilant about wearing masks, a research outfit the Trump Administration once relied on is warning.
The death toll in the U.S., which is currently around 188,000, could more than double to over 400,000 by Jan. 1, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine is forecasting.
And that’s not even the “worst case” scenario the IHME laid out in its sobering report. In that model, four million people would die worldwide and over 620,000 perish in the U.S. from COVID-19, the researchers concluded.
In the “best case” scenario, two million people will be dead across the globe by the end of the year and there will be anywhere from 257,286 to 327,775 COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S.
"The worst is yet to come," IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray warned on a call with reporters Friday.
“We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” Murray said in a statement released earlier. “But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”
Different coronavirus landscape increases risk of post-Labor Day weekend spike
WE’RE NOT ONLY CLOSING IN ON
Partly funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME was criticized in the early days of the pandemic for providing optimistic projections on the progress of the pandemic that President Donald Trump and his team touted as evidence the U.S. was getting COVID-19 under control — and which turned out to be wrong.
Right now, the “most likely” scenario is that 2.8 million people will die if “individual mask use and other mitigation measures remain unchanged,” Murray's team said.
In each of the IMHE models, the countries likeliest to lose the most people are India and the United States.
Currently, the United States has reported more than 188,000 deaths out of nearly 6.2 million confirmed cases, — both world-leading figures, the latest NBC News numbers show.
The U.S. now accounts for almost a quarter of the more than 26 million cases and about a fifth of the nearly 870,000 deaths worldwide, according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard.
Brazil is next with 124,614 deaths followed by India, which has 68,472 on the dashboard.
Murray, in the IHME release, acknowledged that their scenarios represent “a significant increase over the current total deaths, estimated at nearly 910,000 worldwide.” But he said the pandemic is following “seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia which means countries in the northern hemisphere are likely to get socked again when the weather turns colder.
“People in the Northern Hemisphere must be especially vigilant as winter approaches, since the coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in cold climates,” Murray said.
In July, a top World Health Organization spokeswoman said the pandemic was not seasonal but rather "one big wave."
"This virus likes all weather," Dr. Margaret Harris said.
In other COVID-19 developments:
The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent — the first time it’s been below 10 percent since the beginning of the pandemic. “Great Jobs Numbers!” Trump boasted in a Tweet. Economists were far less impressed, NBC News reported. "We have had three huge months of job gains, but so far have regained less than half of the losses in March and April," said Dan North, senior economist at Euler Hermes North America. "Job gains so far have probably been the easy ones to get, where a business opened back up and brought back in its employees." Also, more layoffs are looming in hard-hit sectors like the airline industry, experts are warning.
The FBI and state investigators raided a Pennsylvania nursing home on Thursday where hundreds of residents and staff members tested positive for coronavirus and dozens have died. The Brighton Rehabilitation and Wellness Center. located northeast of Pittsburgh, had been flagged for dangerous conditions even before the pandemic, NBC News reported in April.
Florida has barred local health officials from releasing detailed information about new COVID-19 cases in public schools, the Orlando Sentinel reported. The newspaper discovered this while questioning the state health officer in Orange County about the "first potential case of student-to-teacher transmission“ "Because it’s confidential information, I can’t continue to release that data to the public in that format,” Dr. Raul Pino said. A spokesman for the Orange County public schools said they will continue releasing general pandemic information to the public. The schools recently reopened over the objections of teachers who say they're being forced to work in unsafe conditions, and as the state continues to rack up thousands of new cases every day. The Florida Department of Health has been accused of censoring the data to make the state’s numbers less awful and with ousting a whistleblower. The agency has denied the allegation.
Northeastern University in Boston gave 11 students 24 hours on Friday to pack up and leave for the rest of the semester after they were caught partying in a hotel room and violating the school's pandemic public health rules. Meanwhile, more colleges and universities were reporting new outbreaks. The University of Arizona reported its biggest new daily number of postive COVID-19 tests with 126 just on Thursday. Some 220 new positive cases were reported by the University of Nebraska this week. And over 1,000 students have tested positive for COVID-19 at Ohio State University, according to the school's official coronavirus dashboard.
No comments:
Post a Comment