World Projections from University of Washington Study: 5-12-2020

Projections from University of Washington Study

Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020.  Projections were supplied by IHME on 5-12--2020,

FROM:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

 

Most nations listed below had small increases in projected deaths.  Sweden’s projections have been cut in half and are now inline with Spain and Italy.  Quite a change for Sweden which has very limited restriction on its citizens and was nearly twice as high of mortality projections than the other high projections.

In descending order the projected deaths per million are:  United Kingdom(652),Spain (630), Italy (582), Sweden (563), France (477), USA (445), Ireland (351), Denmark (126), Germany (119), Finland (74) Norway (42), Greece (15).

***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

United States of America—population 331 million (2020)

peak:  1,983 on 4-11-2020

Total Death Projected: (147,040  5-12-2020)  (137,184  5-10-2020)  (134,475 5-4-2020)   (72,860 4-28-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020)   (68,841 4-10-2020)  (61,545 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 444,23

******************************************************************************************************************************************************************

UNITED KINGDOM—.population 66.65 million  (2019)

peak:  ( 1,285 on  4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020

Total Death Projected  (43,479 5-12-2020)  (40,555  5-10-2020) (40,555 5-4-2020)  (31,476 4-28-2020)  (33,142  4-21-2020)  (37,521 4-15-2020)   (23,791 4-13-2020)  (37,494 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million: 652.35

**************************************************************************************************************************

SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)

Peak:    (204 on 5-19-2020)  (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020

Total Death Projected (5,760  5-12-2020) (10,196 5-10-2020)  (10,196 5-4-2020)  (15,625  4-28-2020)   (9191 4-21-2020) (15,890 4-15-2020)  (18,322  4-13-2020)  (13,259 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  563.05

*******************************************************************************************************************************

SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)

Peak;  950 on 4-1-2020

Total  Deaths Projected: (29,581 5-12-2020)  (27,727 5-10-2020) (27,727 5-4-2020) (25,329  4-28-2020) (24,624 4-21-2020)   (23,680 4-15-2020)  (18,713  4-13-2020)   (18,363  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  630.19

***************************************************************************************************************************************

NORWAY—population 5.368 million  (2019)

peak:  19 on 5-4-2020

Total Deaths Projected:  (225 5-12-2020)  (284 5-10-2020)  (284 5-4-2020)  (336 4-21-2020)   ( 280  4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  41.92*

*Through May4, 2020

*******************************************************************************************************************************************

ITALY—population 60.36  million (2019)

peak:  969 3-27-2020

Total Deaths Projected  (35,137  5-12-20200 (31,459  5-10-2020)  (31,458 5-4-2020) (27,544  4-29-2020)  (26,600  4-21-2020) (26,007  4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  582.17

**************************************************************************************************************************************

IRELAND—population 4.94 million  (2020)

peak:  36 on 4-7-2020

Total Deaths Projected (1,736 5-12-2020)  (1,698 5-10-2020)  (1,698 5-4-2020)  (1,404  4-28-2020) (987  4-21-2020)  (890 4-17-2020)  (527  4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million: 351.42

****************************************************************************************************************************************

GREECE—population 10.72  (2019)

peak  11 on 4-23-2020

Total Deaths Projected  (164  5-12-2020) (152 5-10-2020)(152 5-4-2020)   (140  4-28-2020)  (123 4-21-2020)  (119  4-17-2020)  (374  4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  15.30

********************************************************************************************************************************************

GERMANY—population 83.02 million  (2019)

peak:  247 on 4-12-2020

Total Deaths Projected: (9,905  5-12-2020) (8,543 5-10-2020)  (8,543  5-4-2020)  (6,946   4-28-2020)   (5913  4-21-2020)  (4,957  4-17-2020)  (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:   119.31

*************************************************************************************************************************************************

FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)

peak:  920 on 4-6-202

Total Projected Deaths:  (31,155  5-12-2020)  (28,859  5-10-2020) (28,859 5-4-2020)  (24,918  4-28-2020)  (23,104  4-21-2020)  (22,555  4-17-2020 )(17,448  4-13-2020)  (15,741  4-10-2020)

Deaths per million:  477.33

***************************************************************************************************************************************************

FINLAND—population 5.52  (2019)

peak 8 on 4-13-2020

Total Projected Deaths  (410 5-12-2020)  (299 5-10-2020)  (299 5-4-2020)  (433  4-28-2020)  (167  4-21-2020)   (118 4-17-2020)

Deaths per million:  74.28

******************************************************************************************************************************************************

DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)

peak 45 on 5-4-2020

Total Projected deaths   (728  5-12-2020)  (806  5-10-2020) (806 5-4-2020)  (559 4-28-2020)  (772  4-21-2020) (683  4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)

Deaths per million:  126.17