Projections from University of Washington Study
Projected Deaths are through 8-4-2020. Projections were supplied by IHME on 5-4--2020,
FROM: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths
Few changes in numbers from 5-4-2020. Previous comments are still current but reflect net change from 4-28-2020 to the present.
All listed countries (with exception of Finland) have sizeable increases in projected deaths. This no doubt reflects the various changes in the IHME model. The US death projection (406) now appears similar to these four high death rate nations: UK (608), Spain (590), Italy (521) and France (442).
The lower death projection countries are Greece (14), Norway (53), Finland (54), Germany (103), Denmark (140) and Ireland (343).
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United States of America—population 331 million (2020)
peak: 1,983 on 4-11-2020
Total Death Projected: (137,184 5-10-2020) (134,475 5-4-2020) (72,860 4-28-2020) (65,976 4-21-2020) (60,308 4-15-2020) (68,841 4-10-2020) (61,545 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 406.27
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UNITED KINGDOM—population 66.65 million (2019)
peak: ( 1,285 on 4-21-2020)1,156 on 4-13-2020
Total Death Projected (40,555 5-10-2020) (40,555 5-4-2020) (31,476 4-28-2020) (33,142 4-21-2020) (37,521 4-15-2020) (23,791 4-13-2020) (37,494 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 608.48
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SWEDEN—population 10.23 million (2019)
Peak: (204 on 5-19-2020) (127 ON 5-1-2020) on 5-8-2020
Total Death Projected (10,196 5-10-2020) (10,196 5-4-2020) (15,625 4-28-2020) (9191 4-21-2020) (15,890 4-15-2020) (18,322 4-13-2020) (13,259 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 996.68
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SPAIN—population 46.94 million (2019)
Peak; 950 on 4-1-2020
Total Deaths Projected: (27,727 5-10-2020) (27,727 5-4-2020) (25,329 4-28-2020) (24,624 4-21-2020) (23,680 4-15-2020) (18,713 4-13-2020) (18,363 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 590.69
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NORWAY—population 5.368 million (2019)
peak: 19 on 5-4-2020
Total Deaths Projected: (284 5-10-2020) (284 5-4-2020) (336 4-21-2020) ( 280 4-17-2020)( 811 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 52,91*
*Through May4, 2020
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ITALY—population 60.36 million (2019)
peak: 969 3-27-2020
Total Deaths Projected (31,459 5-10-2020) (31,458 5-4-2020) (27,544 4-29-2020) (26,600 4-21-2020) (26,007 4-17-2020) (21,130 4-13-2020) (20,333 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 521.17
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IRELAND—population 4.94 million (2020)
peak: 36 on 4-7-2020
Total Deaths Projected (1,698 5-10-2020) (1,698 5-4-2020) (1,404 4-28-2020) (987 4-21-2020) (890 4-17-2020) (527 4-13-2020) (500 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 343,73
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GREECE—population 10.72 (2019)
peak 11 on 4-23-2020
Total Deaths Projected (152 5-10-2020)(152 5-4-2020) (140 4-28-2020) (123 4-21-2020) (119 4-17-2020) (374 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 14,18
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GERMANY—population 83.02 million (2019)
peak: 247 on 4-12-2020
Total Deaths Projected: (8,543 5-10-2020) (8,543 5-4-2020) (6,946 4-28-2020) (5913 4-21-2020) (4,957 4-17-2020) (7,332 4-13-2020) (7,080 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 102.90
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FRANCE—population 65.27 million (2020)
peak: 920 on 4-6-202
Total Projected Deaths: (28,859 5-10-2020) (28,859 5-4-2020) (24,918 4-28-2020) (23,104 4-21-2020) (22,555 4-17-2020 )(17,448 4-13-2020) (15,741 4-10-2020)
Deaths per million: 442.15
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FINLAND—population 5.52 (2019)
peak 8 on 4-13-2020
Total Projected Deaths (299 5-10-2020) (299 5-4-2020) (433 4-28-2020) (167 4-21-2020) (118 4-17-2020)
Deaths per million: 54.17
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DENMARK—population 5.77 (2019)
peak 45 on 5-4-2020
Total Projected deaths (806 5-10-2020) (806 5-4-2020) (559 4-28-2020) (772 4-21-2020) (683 4-17-2020)(1,669 4-13-2020)
Deaths per million: 139.67
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