What Is a Pandemic? And Is the Coronavirus About to Become One?
Health officials have warned the globe to prepare for a pandemic after a spike in cases outside of China in Iran, Italy and South Korea.
By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder, Staff Writer Feb. 26, 2020, at 3:44 p.m.
What Would a Coronavirus Pandemic Mean?
A disinfection worker wearing protective gear and preparing to disinfect against the novel coronavirus in Daerim Central Market, a neighborhood with one of the largest Chinese populations, Feb. 5, 2020, in Seoul, South Korea.(CHUNG SUNG-JUN/GETTY IMAGES)
AN UPTICK IN coronavirus cases outside of China has health officials warning about the potential for it to become a pandemic.
Though World Health Organization officials on Monday assured the public that the virus – which causes a disease officially named COVID-19 – has not yet reached this level, many are wondering if the situation is close – and what it could mean.
What is a pandemic?
WHO defines a pandemic as the worldwide spread of a new disease. A determination of whether it has become one is based on a geographical distribution of the virus, the severity of the disease it causes and the impact it has on the whole society, according to WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Photos: The Epicenter of Coronavirus
"For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large scale severe disease or deaths," Tedros said.
The term "pandemic" comes from the Greek word "pandemos," which means "all of the people."
"So 'pandemos' is a concept where there's a belief that the whole world's population will likely be exposed to this infection and potentially a proportion of them fall sick," Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's health emergencies program, said Monday.
Health officials at this time are still calling the coronavirus an epidemic, which WHO defines as "the occurrence in a community or region of cases of an illness, specific health-related behaviour, or other health-related events clearly in excess of normal expectancy."
For example, WHO also considered the Ebola crisis across Western Africa from 2014-2016 an epidemic. More than 11,000 deaths were reported from Ebola in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, but that situation largely remained localized.
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The coronavirus is interchangeably called an outbreak, which is defined by WHO as "the occurrence of disease cases in excess of normal expectancy." That term is the same one WHO uses to describe the ongoing outbreak of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Is a coronavirus pandemic possible?
Despite the fact that the virus has spread to 37 countries, WHO officials have not said it is a pandemic yet. The organization previously declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. But it has stopped short of elevating the threat level and has been mindful about spreading panic.
"Using the word pandemic now does not fit the facts, but it may cause fear," Tedros said, adding that it is "not the time to focus on what word we use."
Declaring a pandemic does not open up any funds or additional powers for WHO, which has said finance is low to fight the virus.
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"That will not prevent a single infection today or save a single life today," Tedros said.
The last time WHO declared a pandemic was in 2009 due to swine flu, which was estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people.
What would a pandemic mean for Americans?
U.S. health officials said a pandemic is likely in the coronavirus' future.
"Current global circumstances suggest it's likely this virus will cause a pandemic," said Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC on Tuesday told Americans to prepare for "severe disruptions" to their daily lives because of the virus.
"It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness," said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.
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Meanwhile, cases outside of China in Iran, Italy and South Korea are rapidly increasing.
The coronavirus has killed more than 2,700 people and infected over 81,000 more. According to WHO, it has a 2-4% mortality rate in Wuhan, where the virus was first reported, and a 0.7% mortality rate outside of Wuhan.
WHO has maintained that the virus can still be contained if countries take the outbreak seriously.
"But if some fail, if some do not do everything that is needed, this can still become out of control with dramatic consequences in global health and in the global economy," United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday.
Above is from: https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-02-26/what-is-a-pandemic-and-is-the-coronavirus-about-to-become-one
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